Publication: The Impact of Weather Shocks on Violent and Property Crimes in Jamaica
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Embargoed until 2025-10-09
Embargoed until 2025-10-09
Published
2025-02-11
ISSN
0258-6770
Date
2025-02-11
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Abstract
Developing countries face the most significant exposure to the adverse effects of climate change. However, as temperature and rainfall patterns change, we do not understand their impact on these countries and the mitigation strategies that may be needed. In this paper, we utilize administrative panel data to examine the effects of weather shocks on violent and property crimes in Jamaica. We find strong evidence that a one standard-deviation increase in the daily temperature (2◦C) increases violent crime by 3.67 percent due to an increase in the number of murders (3.44 percent), shootings (7.53 percent), and cases of aggravated assault (6 percent). However, our results suggest that temperature changes have no statistical impact on property crime. In addition, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in rainfall (2 mm) reduces crimes such as shootings (1.53 percent), break-ins (2.27 percent), and larcenies (3.85 percent). Still, it has a minimal impact on other categories of crime.
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“Wright, Nicholas A.; Stewart, Aubrey M.. 2025. The Impact of Weather Shocks on Violent and Property Crimes in Jamaica. World Bank Economic Review. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42796 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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World Bank Economic Review
1564-698X
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- Cited 2 times in Scopus (view citations)
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