dc.contributor.author	World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned	2014-11-22T18:53:11Z
dc.date.available	2014-11-22T18:53:11Z
dc.date.issued	2014-11-23
dc.description.abstract	This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations. Data show that dramatic climate changes, heat, and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer. The poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be hit the hardest. There is growing evidence that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system, and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable. If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat, and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change -- action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies -- far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But the time to act is now.	en
dc.description.abstract	Bajemos la temperatura: Cómo hacer frente a la nueva realidad climática se basa en el informe de 2012, en el que se llegó a la conclusión de que el mundo experimentará un calentamiento de 4 °C para fines de este siglo, con consecuencias devastadoras, a menos que se adopten medidas concertadas inmediatamente. Esta publicación complementa el informe de 2013. Cambios climáticos drásticos y fenómenos extremos ya están afectando a millones de personas en todo el mundo, dañando cultivos y zonas costeras, y poniendo en riesgo la seguridad hídrica. En las tres regiones estudiadas en el informe, las temperaturas que superan los registros históricos son cada vez más frecuentes, la intensidad de lluvia ha aumentado en algunos lugares y las zonas propensas a la sequía —como el Mediterráneo— se están volviendo más secas. Por otra parte, el incremento considerable de la actividad ciclónica en el Atlántico norte afecta al Caribe y a América Central. En este informe científicos del Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research y Climate Analytics analizan los posibles impactos del calentamiento actual en producción agrícola, recursos hídricos, centros urbanos y ecosistemas de América Latina y el Caribe, Oriente Medio y Norte de África y partes de Europa y Asia central. Los resultados de su análisis son alarmantes.	es
dc.description.abstract	S’inscrivant dans le prolongement des publications précédentes de la série « Baissons la chaleur » ce rapport examine les risques que fait peser le changement climatique sur les efforts de développement en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes, au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord, ainsi que dans certaines régions d’Europe et d’Asie centrale. Cette nouvelle analyse scientifique se penche sur les impacts probables d’un réchauffement de 0,8 °C (niveau actuel), 2 °C et 4 °C par rapport aux températures de l’ère préindustrielle sur la production agricole, les ressources en eau, les services écologiques et la vulnérabilité du littoral pour les populations affectées. Ce nouveau rapport intitulé « Baissons la chaleur : Face à la nouvelle norme climatique » prend également le relais du rapport de 2012, qui a conclu à la probabilité d’un réchauffement planétaire de 4 °C d’ici la fin du siècle, assorti de conséquences dévastatrices si une action concertée n’est pas engagée. Cette analyse complète enfin le rapport de 2013 sur les risques potentiels pesant sur le développement d’après les différents scénarios de réchauffement en Afrique subsaharienne, en Asie du Sud-Est et en Asie du Sud. Ce rapport nous avertissait que notre génération actuelle pourrait connaître un monde à + 2 °C. Bon nombre des pires conséquences prévisibles du changement climatique exposées dans ce rapport pourraient encore être évitées si le réchauffement est contenu à moins de 2 °C. De profonds changements aux plans technologique, économique, institutionnel et comportemental seront néanmoins nécessaires, ainsi qu’un engagement à tous les niveaux de la société.	fr
dc.identifier.isbn	978-1-4648-0437-3
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20595
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.subject	4 degree celsius warmer world
dc.subject	adaptation
dc.subject	agricultural production
dc.subject	agriculture
dc.subject	cities
dc.subject	aridity
dc.subject	climate change
dc.subject	climate extremes
dc.subject	climate impacts
dc.subject	climate policy
dc.subject	climate risks
dc.subject	climate variability
dc.subject	coasts
dc.subject	coral reefs
dc.subject	crop yield
dc.subject	disaster risk management
dc.subject	drought
dc.subject	ecosystems
dc.subject	extreme weather
dc.subject	floods
dc.subject	food security
dc.subject	glaciers
dc.subject	greenhouse gas emissions
dc.subject	heat extremes
dc.subject	heat waves
dc.subject	mitigation
dc.subject	monsoon
dc.subject	regional climate impacts
dc.subject	resilience
dc.subject	sea-level rise
dc.subject	snow melt
dc.subject	temperature changes
dc.subject	tropical cyclones
dc.subject	water
dc.subject	water resources
dc.title	Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal	en
dc.title	Bajemos la temperatura : cómo hacer frente a la nueva realidad climática (Vol. 4)	es
dc.title	Baissons la chaleur : Face a la nouvelle norme climatique - resumé analytique	fr
dc.title.alternative	Baissons la chaleur : face a la nouvelle norme climatique Bajemos la temperatura : como hacer frente a la nueva realidad climatica Diminuir o calor: Confrontando o novo padrão climático Kthejeni poshtë ngrohjes : konfrontuar klima e re normale Utisajte vrućine : sa kojima se suočava nova klima normalno Smanjite temperaturu : suočavanje nova klima normalna Smanji zagrijavanje : suočavanje sa novom klimatskom realnošću	es
dc.title.alternative	Baissons la chaleur : face a la nouvelle norme climatique Bajemos la temperatura : como hacer frente a la nueva realidad climatica Diminuir o calor: Confrontando o novo padrão climático Kthejeni poshtë ngrohjes : konfrontuar klima e re normale Utisajte vrućine : sa kojima se suočava nova klima normalno Smanjite temperaturu : suočavanje nova klima normalna Smanji zagrijavanje : suočavanje sa novom klimatskom realnošću	fr
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea	Climate Change
okr.date.disclosure	2014-11-23
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Publication
okr.globalpractice	Environment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpractice	Water
okr.globalpractice	Agriculture
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/978-1-4648-0437-3
okr.identifier.report	92704
okr.language.supported	en
okr.language.supported	es
okr.language.supported	fr
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/602511468226209555/pdf/927040v10Spani09SPAspa0010NOEmbargo.pdf	es
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/392931468016245898/pdf/927040v10French000Executive0Summary.pdf	fr
okr.peerreview	Academic Peer Review
okr.region.administrative	Africa
okr.region.administrative	East Asia and Pacific
okr.region.administrative	Europe and Central Asia
okr.region.administrative	Latin America & Caribbean
okr.region.administrative	South Asia
okr.region.administrative	Middle East and North Africa
okr.topic	Agriculture::Climate Change and Agriculture
okr.topic	Environment::Climate Change Impacts
okr.topic	Environment::Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
okr.topic	Environment::Climate Change and Environment
okr.topic	Environment::Environmental Economics & Policies
okr.topic	Environment::Environmental Governance
okr.topic	Environment::Water Resources Management
okr.topic	Water Resources::Water Economics
okr.txturl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/602511468226209555/text/927040v10Spani09SPAspa0010NOEmbargo.txt	es
okr.txturl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/392931468016245898/text/927040v10French000Executive0Summary.txt	fr
okr.unit	GCCVP

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Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal