Publication: Foreign Aid, Growth and Poverty : A Policy Framework for Niger
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Date
2008
ISSN
01618938
Published
2008
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This paper extends the dynamic macroeconomic framework developed by Agenor et al. [Agenor, P.-R., Bayraktar, N., & Aynaoui, K. E. (2006, July). Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Links between Aid, Public Capital, Growth, and Poverty Reduction. World Bank, Revised.]. As in the original model, linkages between foreign aid, public investment (education, infrastructure, and health) and growth are explicitly captured, but this time in a fixed nominal exchange rate regime. Although the nominal exchange rate is fixed, the relative price of domestic goods is endogenous, thereby allowing for potential Dutch disease effects associated with increases in aid. The impact of policy shocks on poverty is assessed by using partial growth elasticities. A policy experiment of increasing foreign aid illustrates the dynamic trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction in Niger.
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Publication A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategies in Niger(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-02)The authors apply the dynamic macroeconomic framework developed by Agénor, Bayraktar, and El Aynaoui (2004) to Niger. As in the original model, linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), and growth are explicitly captured. Although the nominal exchange rate is fixed, the relative price of domestic goods is endogenous, thereby allowing for potential Dutch disease effects associated with increases in aid. The authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by using partial growth elasticities. They perform various policy experiments, including an increase in the level of foreign aid, a reallocation of public investment toward infrastructure, and neutral and non-neutral cuts in tariffs. The simulations show the dynamic tradeoffs that these policies entail with respect to growth and poverty reduction in Niger.Publication Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-10)The authors present an integrated macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of their approach is a macroeconomic model that captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), the supply side, and poverty. The model is linked through cross-section regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy, and access to safe water. A composite MDG indicator is also calculated. The functioning of the framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in aid and a debt write-off for Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. The authors' approach can serve as the building block of Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current "Poverty Reduction" Strategy Papers.Publication The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth : A Small-Scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12)This paper presents a small-scale intertemporal model of endogenous growth that accounts for the composition of public expenditure and externalities associated with public capital. Government spending is disaggregated into various components, including maintenance, security, and investment in education, health, and core infrastructure. After studying its long-run properties, the model is calibrated for Haiti, using country-specific information as well as parameter estimates from the literature. A variety of policy experiments are then reported, including a reallocation of spending aimed at creating fiscal space to promote public investment; an improvement in fiscal management that leads to a reduction in tax collection costs; higher spending on security; and a composite fiscal package.Publication Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-06)The authors propose a "bottom up" approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.Publication Growth, Inequality, and Poverty : Looking Beyond Averages(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-02)The evidence is compelling that the poor in developing countries do typically share in the gains from rising aggregate affluence and in the losses from aggregate contraction. But how much do poor people share in growth? Do they gain more in some settings than others? Do some gain while others lose? Does pro-poor growth mean more or less aggregate growth? Recent theories and evidence suggest some answers, but deeper microeconomic empirical work is needed on growth and distributed change. Only then will we have a firm basis for identifying the specific policies and programs needed to complement and possibly modify growth-oriented policies.
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