Demand Forecasting Errors

Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James

Publication:
Demand Forecasting Errors

dc.contributor.author	Mackie, Peter
dc.contributor.author	Nellthorp, John
dc.contributor.author	Laird, James
dc.date.accessioned	2012-08-13T16:03:13Z
dc.date.available	2012-08-13T16:03:13Z
dc.date.issued	2005-01
dc.description.abstract	Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand forecasts (Section 1). Following that introductory section the error types are described in more detail: measurement error (Section 2), model specification error (Section 3) and External or Exogenous Errors (Section 4). The final section presents a discussion on how to manage demand forecasting errors (Section 5).	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6376813/demand-forecasting-errors
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11797
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 12
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject	AGGREGATION
dc.subject	AREA
dc.subject	BASE YEAR
dc.subject	BUS
dc.subject	BUS STOPS
dc.subject	BUSES
dc.subject	CAR OWNERSHIP
dc.subject	CARS
dc.subject	CONGESTION
dc.subject	CONSTRUCTION
dc.subject	COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subject	DEPENDENCY
dc.subject	DESTINATION
dc.subject	DRIVERS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC APPRAISAL
dc.subject	ELASTICITY
dc.subject	ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subject	EXTRAPOLATION
dc.subject	FARE LEVELS
dc.subject	FARES
dc.subject	FORECASTING MODELS
dc.subject	FORECASTS
dc.subject	FRAMEWORK
dc.subject	FREIGHT
dc.subject	FREIGHT TRAFFIC
dc.subject	FUEL
dc.subject	FUEL PRICE
dc.subject	GDP
dc.subject	GENERATED TRAFFIC
dc.subject	GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
dc.subject	GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS
dc.subject	GROWTH POTENTIAL
dc.subject	GROWTH RATE
dc.subject	HIGHWAYS
dc.subject	INCOME
dc.subject	INTERACTION BETWEEN ROADS
dc.subject	INTERFACE
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject	INTERPOLATION
dc.subject	JOURNEY
dc.subject	LAND USE
dc.subject	LIGHT RAIL
dc.subject	ORIGIN
dc.subject	PASSENGER
dc.subject	PASSENGER VOLUMES
dc.subject	PASSENGERS
dc.subject	PEAK PERIODS
dc.subject	PORTS
dc.subject	PRIVATE ROAD TRAFFIC
dc.subject	PUBLIC TRANSPORT
dc.subject	PUBLIC TRANSPORT FARES
dc.subject	PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER
dc.subject	PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE
dc.subject	ROAD HAULAGE
dc.subject	ROAD NETWORK
dc.subject	ROAD TOLLS
dc.subject	ROAD TRAFFIC
dc.subject	ROADS
dc.subject	ROUTE
dc.subject	ROUTE CHOICE
dc.subject	ROUTES
dc.subject	SPEED
dc.subject	STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
dc.subject	SURVEYING
dc.subject	TRAFFIC
dc.subject	TRAFFIC FLOW
dc.subject	TRAFFIC FLOWS
dc.subject	TRAFFIC GROWTH
dc.subject	TRAFFIC PATTERNS
dc.subject	TRAINS
dc.subject	TRANSPORT
dc.subject	TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
dc.subject	TRANSPORT INVESTMENT
dc.subject	TRANSPORT OPERATORS
dc.subject	TRANSPORT POLICY
dc.subject	TRANSPORT PROJECTS
dc.subject	TRANSPORT SECTOR
dc.subject	TRANSPORT SERVICES
dc.subject	TRANSPORT SYSTEM
dc.subject	TRAVEL TIME
dc.subject	TRAVEL TIMES
dc.subject	TRAVELLERS
dc.subject	TRUCKS
dc.subject	VALUE OF TIME
dc.subject	VEHICLE FLEETS
dc.subject	VEHICLE OWNERSHIP
dc.subject	VEHICLES
dc.subject	WALKING
dc.subject	WALKING TIME
dc.title	Demand Forecasting Errors	en
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.doctype	Publications & Research :: Brief
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6376813/demand-forecasting-errors
okr.globalpractice	Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience
okr.globalpractice	Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice	Transport and ICT
okr.globalpractice	Transport and ICT
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	000012009_20051028142114
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	6376813
okr.identifier.report	33933
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/10/28/000012009_20051028142114/Rendered/PDF/339330rev.pdf	en
okr.topic	Transport :: Airports and Air Services
okr.topic	Urban Development :: Transport in Urban Areas
okr.topic	Roads and Highways
okr.topic	Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic	Geographical Information Systems
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unit	Transport Unit (ETWTR)
okr.volume	1 of 1