Publication: The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
Loading...
Date
2019-05
ISSN
Published
2019-05
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
An updated DSA indicates that The Gambia is in external debt distress, though its public debt is deemed sustainable on a forward-looking basis. The external debt service-to-exports and -to-revenue ratios breach their indicative thresholds by large margins in the near term and signal major liquidity pressures. However, once these pressures are addressed by the prospective debt relief and the authorities’ fiscal consolidation and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform program, the PV of total public debt would be brought below its threshold over the medium term. On the upside, debt relief discussions with external creditors are progressing and could unlock additional budget support. Downside risks mainly relate to the political environment and fiscal discipline, the unravelling of which could destabilize the economy and worsen the outlook for public debt.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank; International Monetary Fund. 2019. The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32561 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)The joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2019 Article IV Consultation, for the first time based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real GDP and exports growth and the depreciation of the KGS. To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine will close in 2026.Publication Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)Chad’s risks of external and overall debt distress are high but have nonetheless declined in the past year. All but one external debt sustainability indicators are below their respective thresholds from 2019 onwards. The debt-to-revenue ratio moderately breaches its threshold under the baseline scenario. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The debt sustainability analysis is based on projected continued fiscal prudence and an increase in non-oil revenues. Following the restructuring in 2018, the new Glencore debt contract has helped contain the impact of low oil prices on debt sustainability, as it allows for lower debt service when oil prices are lower.Publication Grenada - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)With some 19 million US Dollars (1.6 percent of GDP) in unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, Grenada remains in external public debt distress. However, debt appears sustainable reflecting favorable projected debt dynamics from substantial fiscal surpluses that are supported by the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL). Total public debt has declined from 108 percent of GDP in 2013 to 63.5 percent of GDP in 2018, with external public debt amounting to 44.5 percent of GDP. This reduction was made possible through fiscal consolidation that has been anchored by the FRL, robust economic growth, and a restructuring of Grenada's public debt. Going forward, continued adherence to the FRL and regularization of arrears will be needed to upgrade the risk rating. Debt should be further reduced and kept at levels needed to withstand the existing vulnerabilities to external shocks and natural disasters.Publication Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09)The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of Guyana’s external public debt in a very extreme shock which combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second order effects arising from interactions among these shocks. The combined effects of these shocks and their second order effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating. Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt. Guyana’s medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their commitment in preserving fiscal discipline.Publication Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08)Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar’s debt carrying capacity rather than a change in the debt path. Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds. Stress tests do not breach the threshold applicable to countries with medium debt-carrying capacity. Total (external plus domestic) PPG debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but growth shocks drive the present value of the ratio of debt to GDP above the benchmark. Shocks could also introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 100 percent over the long term. The overall rating, of moderate debt distress, remains consistent with the 2018 DSA. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar’s current plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs, though other factors are also critical.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02)South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.