Publication: The Democratic Republic of the Congo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
Loading...
Published
2019-09
ISSN
Date
2019-10-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)’s debt-carrying capacity was assessed as weak. DRC remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. The debt coverage has been improved since the last DSA, especially on domestic debt. The external nominal debt ratios are lower than at the time of the 2015 debt sustainability analysis (DSA), however the country shows vulnerability in debt repayment capacity, even under the baseline, due to weak revenue mobilization. Most external debt thresholds are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to external shocks. Given limited buffers, prudent borrowing policies are essential by prioritizing concessional loans and strengthening debt management policies
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank; International Monetary Fund. 2019. The Democratic Republic of the Congo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32577 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Republic of Congo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Update(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)Based on an assessment of external public debt indicators and given the continued buildup of external arrears, the Republic of Congo is classified as “in debt distress”. Moreover, despite the recent restructuring agreement with China, public debt remains unsustainable with the net present value of external debt in percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the external debt service-to-revenue ratios projected to remain above their indicative thresholds in the medium terPublication Lao People's Democratic Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08)Lao P.D.R.’s risks of external and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as high. Under the revised low-income country debt sustainability framework (LIC DSF), its debt carrying capacity has deteriorated and most external and total public debt indicators breach their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks under the baseline scenarios. External debt indicators are most vulnerable to shocks to exports and depreciation of the currency. Public and external debt indicators are most sensitive to the contingent liabilities shock, while recent natural disasters underscore the need for strengthening buffers. The low level of reserves adds to these vulnerabilities. Factors, such as the large share of electricity export earnings under long-term intergovernmental power purchase agreements, and a strong and growing electricity exports market help mitigate risks, keeping the debt outlook sustainable. Market access is being maintained, around 65 percent of external debt is concessional, and the stock of expenditure arrears is declining. Rebuilding fiscal space, adopting clear guidelines for sovereign debt issuance and guarantees, assessing risks from contingent liabilities, and improving debt management are immediate priorities. Assessing and targeting infrastructure projects with high growth and social returns and financing these with concessional financing would benefit debt sustainability. Strengthening the business environment and governance, would improve the investment outlook, help diversify and make growth more inclusive. Increasing the export base, continuing to maximize the proportion of concessional loans and improving primary deficits would help to keep the debt burden contained.Publication Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)The joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2019 Article IV Consultation, for the first time based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real GDP and exports growth and the depreciation of the KGS. To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine will close in 2026.Publication Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08)Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar’s debt carrying capacity rather than a change in the debt path. Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds. Stress tests do not breach the threshold applicable to countries with medium debt-carrying capacity. Total (external plus domestic) PPG debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but growth shocks drive the present value of the ratio of debt to GDP above the benchmark. Shocks could also introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 100 percent over the long term. The overall rating, of moderate debt distress, remains consistent with the 2018 DSA. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar’s current plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs, though other factors are also critical.Publication Republic of Uzbekistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05)Based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA), Uzbekistan has a low risk of debt distress, with debt burden indicators below relevant thresholds in the baseline and all stress scenarios. Over the medium term, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase moderately, while the total external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline somewhat. In addition, large foreign exchange reserve buffers mitigate potential distress concerns. The debt sustainability analysis suggests that the most significant risks could result from worse-than-expected external flows (mostly lower remittances) and significantly lower exports. The government should carefully manage external borrowing to maintain Uzbekistan’s strong external position.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The World Bank Group in Georgia, 2014-23(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-30)This Country Program Evaluation assesses the performance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group’s support to Georgia in achieving the country’s development objectives. In the decade leading up to the evaluation period, Georgia pursued economic reforms to attract critical investments for becoming a regional trade and transport hub. Ambitious economic reforms went hand in hand with efforts to improve human development and strengthening social protection systems. Growing geopolitical tensions and internal political polarization have challenged Georgia’s reform progress in recent years. The Bank Group’s strategy adapted well to Georgia’s development needs and was well coordinated with other development partners. It successfully employed a range of instruments to help increase competitiveness, growth, and job creation, and effectively contributed to improved infrastructure and increased trade by using programmatic and innovative approaches. The Bank Group’s regular investments in analytical work and the switch to results-based programmatic support helped improve the efficiency and effectiveness of education and health care systems. The IEG offers the following lessons based on the evidence and analysis in the Country Program Evaluation: (i) Prioritizing Bank Group support around the move towards deeper regional integration was an effective anchor for key economic reforms for economic convergence. (ii) Pursuing a selective and adaptive approach in a country with high implementation capacity and institutions, strong coordination among development partners, and access to a wide range of external resources can allow the Bank Group to exercise significant influence in areas of comparative advantage and global expertise. (iii) A stronger focus on outcome-based programmatic approaches helped to build local capacity and crowd-in partner financing.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication The World Bank Group in Tanzania, Fiscal Years 2012–22(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22)This evaluation assesses the relevance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group's support to Tanzania between Fiscal Years 2012 and 2022. Over the past decade, Tanzania has experienced resilient growth, with an average annual per capita GDP increase of 2.2%. However, poverty remains widespread and slow to decline, underscoring the need for more inclusive growth. The report examines the Bank Group's strategic and operational approaches during this period, which were aligned with Tanzania's development priorities and focused on industrialization, human development, and public sector reforms. The evaluation includes thematic chapters on the Bank Group's support for private sector-led growth and spatial transformation, as well as lessons to inform future support to the country.Publication Evaluation Insight Note(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-12)This Evaluation Insight Note (EIN) aims to contribute to the World Bank’s goal of encouraging the use of data, digital technology, and innovation towards transforming agri-food systems in client countries. The EIN was guided by the overall question: “How are World Bank agriculture and irrigation projects using technologies and what insights can be drawn from them” In answering this question, the EIN draws from a portfolio identification and review of 158 active and 113 closed projects (FY16-23) World Bank agriculture and irrigation projects to describe the extent and utilization of agricultural technologies. It supplemented the findings from the review with insights drawn from four project evaluations (Project Performance Assessment Reports) prepared by IEG in Bangladesh, Brazil, Cote d’Ivoire, and Vietnam, which were selected because of their likely lessons on agriculture technology. The portfolio and systematic review provided the basis for seven main insights on coverage and nature of technologies used in World Bank agriculture projects, demand-based technological solutions, technology diffusion, collaboration, and investment in enabling environment factors, among others. (1) The World Bank Agriculture and Irrigation portfolio shows limited coverage of advanced technologies. (2) The technologies that are prevalent in projects are mainly focused on increasing agricultural productivity with limited focus on technologies for facilitating market linkages. (3) Among the technologies promoted in Bank agriculture and irrigation projects, some technologies, and applications such GIS, early warning systems and MIS are more concentrated than others. (4) Combining demand-based technological solutions with training and technical assistance supported uptake of those solutions. (5) Technology diffusion worked well when there was strong collaboration between key research and extension agencies, each with well-defined roles and responsibilities in the projects. (6) When technology dissemination efforts are combined with investments in enabling environment factors such as infrastructure (i.e., roads, markets), they facilitated technology adoption. (7) Building sustainable institutional models – key for technology uptake and use – continue to be challenging in Bank supported projects.Publication FY 2025 China Country Opinion Survey Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-04)The Country Opinion Survey in China assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in China perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in China on 1) their views regarding the general environment in China; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in China; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in China; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in China.