Publication: Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes
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2009-11-01
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2012-03-19
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There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.
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āKousky, Carolyn; Rostapshova, Olga; Toman, Michael; Zeckhauser, Richard. 2009. Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5127. Ā© World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4318 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ā
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