Publication: Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution: The Cases of Western and Eastern Europe
Loading...
Published
2018-11
ISSN
Date
2018-12-03
Author(s)
Krolage, Carla
Peichl, Andreas
Stockli, Marc
Torre, Ivan
Wittneben, Christian
Editor(s)
Abstract
European countries have the world's most redistributive tax and transfer systems. Although they have been well equipped to deal with vertical inequality -- that is, fostering redistribution from the rich to the poor -- less is known about their performance in dealing with horizontal inequality, that is, in redistributing among socioeconomic groups. In a context where individuals may not only care about vertical redistribution, but also about the economic situation of the specific groups to which they belong, the horizontal dimension of redistribution becomes politically salient and can be a source of social tensions. This paper analyzes the performance of the 28 EU countries on redistribution across (i) age groups, (ii) occupational groups, and (iii) household types over 2007–2014 using counterfactual simulation techniques. The analysis finds a great degree of heterogeneity across countries: changes in the tax and transfer system have particularly hit the young and losers of occupational change in Eastern European countries, while households with greater economic security have benefited from these changes. The findings suggest that horizontal inequality is a dimension that policy makers should take into account when reforming tax and transfer systems.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Krolage, Carla; Bussolo, Maurizio; Makovec, Mattia; Peichl, Andreas; Stockli, Marc; Torre, Ivan; Wittneben, Christian; Torre, Iván. 2018. Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution: The Cases of Western and Eastern Europe. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8657. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30930 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication The Lasting Effects of Working while in School(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-18)This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor earnings, observable seven years after the program. Effects are stronger for youth who participate during pivotal educational transitions and are larger for vulnerable youth and men, while remaining positive for women and non-vulnerable youth. The program is highly cost-effective, with average impacts exceeding those of job training programs and comparable to early childhood investments.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Decomposing Changes in Income Inequality into Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution and Reranking, with Applications to China and Vietnam(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-04)It is acknowledged that the lack of any systematic link between growth and income inequality does not necessarily mean that economic growth is not accompanied by major changes in the underlying income distribution. The author uses a method devised to decompose the redistributive effect of a tax to analyze the extent to which vertical redistribution associated with changing incomes over time is offset or reinforced by horizontal redistribution and re-ranking. He uses panel data from China and Vietnam over a period when both countries grew spectacularly as they transitioned from planned to market economies, and yet experienced smaller annual percentage increases in income inequality. The results suggest that substantial amounts of horizontal redistribution and re-ranking in both China-and to a lesser extent Vietnam-more than offset pro-poor vertical redistribution. Without the horizontal redistribution and re-ranking, the Gini coefficient for China might have fallen between 1989 and 1997-substantially so.Publication I Perceive Therefore I Demand(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)This paper investigates the link between inequality and demand for redistribution by looking at how individuals form their perceptions of inequality. Most of the literature analyzing demand for redistribution has focused on objective inequality, rather than subjective perceptions of inequality. However, a model that links demand for redistribution to subjective inequality is needed, given that recent empirical research has shown a growing gap between subjective and objective inequality. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme survey, the paper focuses on explaining individuals' formation of inequality perceptions using objective variables. The paper then studies the relationship between these perceptions and individuals' demand for redistribution. The analysis finds that objective macro variables are associated with individuals' perceptions of inequality, and that individual circumstances, some of which relate to self-interest, like age, educational attainment, and income, also play an important role. Perceptions of equality, in turn, are significatively correlated to demand for redistribution and seem to substitute for any effect of objective variables. This result suggests that contextual macro variables only affect individuals' demand for redistribution through their perceptions of equality and do not have a direct effect.Publication Assessing the Redistributive Effect of Fiscal Policy(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-04)Who benefits from public spending? Who bears the burden of taxation? How desirable is the distribution of net benefits from the operation of a tax-benefit system? This paper surveys basic concepts, methods, and modeling approaches commonly used to address these issues in the context of fiscal incidence analysis. The review covers the incidence of both taxation and public spending. Methodological points are supported by country cases. The effective distribution of benefits and burdens associated with fiscal policy depends on the size of the government, the distributive mechanisms involved, and the incentives properties of the policy under consideration. This creates a need for analytical methods to account for both individual behavior and social interaction. The approaches reviewed include simple reduced form regression analysis, microsimulation models (both the envelope and discrete choice models), computable general equilibrium modeling, and approaches that link computable general equilibrium models to microsimulation models. Explicit modeling facilitates the construction of counterfactuals to back up causal analysis. Social desirability is assessed on the basis of progressivity along with deadweight loss.Publication Does Job Polarization Explain the Rise in Earnings Inequality? Evidence from Europe(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11)Earnings inequality and job polarization have increased significantly in several countries since the early 1990s. Using data from European countries covering a 20-year period, this paper provides new evidence that the decline of middle-skilled occupations and the simultaneous increase of high- and low-skilled occupations are important factors accounting for the rise of inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution. Job polarization accounts for a large share of the increasing inequality between the 10th and the 50th percentiles, but it explains little or none of the increasing inequality between the 50th and 90th percentiles. Other important developments during this period, such as changing wage returns, higher educational attainment, and increased female labor force participation, account for a small portion of the changes in inequality.Publication Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions(2009-03-01)This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agriculture trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture and food could increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) by 0.2 percent and lower moderate poverty (US$2 a day) by 0.3 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia-where half of the world's poor reside-experiences an increase in extreme poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to unskilled-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes are likely to be mild, but exhibit a strong regional pattern. Inequality is likely to fall in regions such as Latin America, which are characterized by high initial inequality, and rise in regions like South Asia, characterized by low initial inequality.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-05)This Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report provides a synopsis of the estimated direct economic damage in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) due to the passage Hurricane Beryl. The report is based on a rapid and remote post disaster damage assessment that follows the established GRADE methodology. Hurricane Beryl passed over southern SVG on July 1, 2024. Wind speeds ranged from a Category 4 hurricane in the southern Grenadines, then lessening to the north with Tropical Storm force winds felt on the main island of Saint Vincent. The objective of this report is to provide an estimate of the direct economic damage to physical assets caused by Hurricane Beryl in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) and to provide information on the spatial distribution of damages to support development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction.Publication Quantitative Analysis of Road Transport Agreements (QuARTA)(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-04-13)Road freight transport is indispensable to international economic cooperation and foreign trade. Across all continents, it is commonly used for short and medium distances and in long distance haulage when minimizing time is important. In all instances governments play a critical role in ensuring the competitive advantage of private sector operators. Countries often have many opportunities to minimize the physical or administrative barriers that increase costs, take measures to enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of road transport, or generally nurture the integral role of international road freight transport in the global trade logistics industry. Road freight transport is critical to domestic and international trade. It is the dominant mode of transport for overland movement of trade traffic, carrying more than 80 percent of traffic in most regions. Generally, nearly all trade traffic is carried by road at some point. Therefore, the cost and quality of road transport services is of critical importance to trade competitiveness of countries and regions within countries. In fact, road transport is fundamental to modern international division of labor and supply-chain management.Publication Demystifying China’s Fiscal Stimulus(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10)China's government economic stimulus package in 2008-09 appears to have worked well. It seems to have been about the right size, included a number of appropriate components, and was well timed. Its subnational component was designed to maximize the impact of the stimulus package on the economy and minimize the potential procyclical elements that are usually built into subnational fiscal mechanisms in federal countries. Moreover, China's massive fiscal stimulus played an important role in the overall recovery of the global economy. Using a simple analytical framework, this paper focuses on two key factors behind the success of the stimulus: investments in bottleneck-easing infrastructure projects and countercyclical nature of subnational spending based on the assumption that well-chosen infrastructure projects could improve business climate and thereby crowd in the private investment. The paper concludes that the expansionary subnational government spending played a key role in strengthening the overall impact of the stimulus and sustaining growth. It also highlights the importance of public investment quality and cautions about the sustainability of local government financing through the domestic banking system and increases in local governments off balance sheet or contingent liabilities. These lessons may be of particular relevance today for China, as well as other countries, in formulating policy response to another global economic slowdown or crisis, possibly as a result of the Eurozone turmoil. For China, investing in urban infrastructure and green economy, as well as in higher quality and better targeted social services, will be crucial for improving income inequality and inducing a more inclusive growth path.Publication Climate Trends and Impacts in China(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-09)This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and international experts. In addition to reviewing the physical climate science, the paper also looks at trends in economic damages in China from weather related hazards. The paper serves as background for a series of discussion papers on climate risk management and adaptation in China. The growing body of scientific evidence shows that China's climate is indeed changing, especially when climate is viewed at the regional level. Temperatures are rising, precipitation regimes are changing, and shifts have occurred in the distribution of extreme weather events. The effects of extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change cut across many different sectors of China's economy. China's government estimates that direct economic losses from extreme weather events cost the country 1 to 3 percent of gross domestic product each year. As China's economy continues to grow, its exposure to weather-related hazards is expected to heighten, especially without policies to limit building in hazardous areas such as floodplains and alleviate non-climate pressures such as overuse of freshwater resources. Effective risk management policies and investments are crucial to reducing the sensitivity and increasing the resilience of the country to extreme weather, climate variability, and long-term climate change.