Publication:
Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018: Vulnerabilities Slow Growth

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned2018-04-26T18:28:32Z
dc.date.available2018-04-26T18:28:32Z
dc.date.issued2018-04-10
dc.description.abstractGDP growth in the Western Balkans slowed from 3.1 percent in 2016 to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2017. Regional growth in 2017 is less optimistic than the 2.6 percent expected when the Fall issue of this report was published. It slowed in Serbia due to a harsh winter and stalled in FYR Macedonia, where the political crisis deterred both public and private investment. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) grew at a rate like the last two years. The dynamism of the smaller economies of Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro drove regional growth in 2017, with support from higher growth in trading partners, a pickup in commodity prices, and the execution of large investment projects. Bold structural reforms are necessary if the region is to grow sustainably over the medium term. Regional GDP growth is projected to rise from 2.4 percent in 2017 to 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2019. Countries are expected to grow faster, pushed up by projected stronger growth in Europe, except for Albania, where moderation is expected as large investment projects are completed, and Montenegro, which is expected to undergo a much-needed fiscal consolidation. Among risks to the outlook are trade protectionism, normalization of interest rates globally, and low potential growth and uncertainty about domestic policy or policy reversals. These risks can be mitigated by rationalizing spending to build fiscal space for growth-enhancing reforms, and by a more strategic approach to boost competitiveness. Policies to lift physical and human capital, expand labor force participation, and improve market institutions should help raise growth potential and reduce inequality.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304141523592698571/Vulnerabilities-slow-growth
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/29728
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/29728
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectJOB CREATION
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectREVENUE COLLECTION
dc.subjectFISCAL TRENDS
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectACCESS TO FINANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectNON-PERFORMING LOANS
dc.titleWestern Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018en
dc.title.subtitleVulnerabilities Slow Growthen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleWestern Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018
okr.date.disclosure2018-04-13
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304141523592698571/Vulnerabilities-slow-growth
okr.guid304141523592698571
okr.guid844241523593357349
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/29728
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0858d30b9_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum29803012
okr.identifier.report125191
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304141523592698571/pdf/125191-WP-PUBLIC-WBRER13-10Apr2018.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryAlbania
okr.region.countryBosnia and Herzegovina
okr.region.countryKosovo
okr.region.countryMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of
okr.region.countryMontenegro
okr.region.countrySerbia
okr.region.countryNorth Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
okr.region.geographicalEastern Europe
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Employment and Shared Growth
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Employment and Unemployment
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Policies
okr.unitEurope and Central Asia 3 (GMTE3)
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