Publication: Financial Crises and Social Spending : The Impact of the 2008-2009 Crisis
Loading...
Date
2010-06-18
ISSN
Published
2010-06-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of the 2008-2009 economic crisis on social spending, drawing on evidence at the global, national, and household levels, to provide a sense of the nature and the effects of the worldwide downturn on spending in the social sectors. It summarizes existing empirical evidence on the relationship between crises, or other serious dislocations on education, health, HIV/AIDS, and nutrition as background to the analysis of growth and social spending. The paper analyzes the relationship between GDP growth, growth in education and health spending, and projects expenditure responses to 2012, to illustrate how expected changes in future economic growth are likely to affect both absolute spending and growth in social expenditures. It provides an analysis of the effects on HIV/AIDS spending, a relatively new funding category and therefore outside the purview of the econometric analysis. It examines the responsiveness of Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to financial crises in terms of subsequent allocations from the developed world, and the impacts on ODA spending for education and health in developing and transition countries. The paper concludes by citing existing evidence on regional impacts of the crisis on public spending, and the effects on household budgets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the region hardest hit by the current crisis.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Lewis, Maureen; Verhoeven, Marijn. 2010. Financial Crises and Social Spending : The Impact of the 2008-2009 Crisis. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12965 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Reforming China's Rural Health System(World Bank, 2009)This book began in 2003 during the initial formulations of China's 11th five-year plan, which covers the period 2006-10. During the entire period, the rural health Analytic and Advisory Activities (AAA) team analyzed the sector and debated reform options with government officials and scholars. It is helped the government in its extensive reform efforts over the past few years. The publication can serve two important functions: to provide an analytical framework for thinking about what happened in China's rural health system and why, and to present a global perspective on the options for further strengthening the sector. China is well on its way to achieving a modern, equitable, and well-functioning rural health sector, but this is not an easy task for any country. This book can provide a useful reference for policy makers in the next phase of health reform and beyond.Publication Turkey on the Way of Universal Health Coverage through the Health Transformation Program (2003-13)(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-09)Beginning in 2003, Turkey initiated a series of reforms under the Health Transformation Program (HTP) that over the past decade have led to the achievement of universal health coverage (UHC). The progress of Turkey s health system has few if any parallels in scope and speed. Before the reforms, Turkey s aggregate health indicators lagged behind those of OECD member states and other middle-income countries. The health financing system was fragmented, with four separate insurance schemes and a Green Card program for the poor, each with distinct benefits packages and access rules. Both the Ministry of Labor and Social Security and Ministry of Health (MoH) were providers and financiers of the health system, and four different ministries were directly involved in public health care delivery. Turkey s reform efforts have impacted virtually all aspects of the country s health system and have resulted in the rapid expansion of the proportion of the population covered and of the services to which they are entitled. At the same time, financial protection has improved. For example, (i) insurance coverage increased from 64 to 98 percent between 2002 and 2012; (ii) the share of pregnant women having four antenatal care visits increased from 54 to 82 percent between 2003 and 2010; and (iii) citizen satisfaction with health services increased from 39.5 to 75.9 percent between 2003 and 2011. Despite dramatic improvements there is still space for Turkey to continue to improve its citizens health outcomes, and challenges lie ahead for improving services beyond primary care. The main criticism to reform has so far come from health sector workers; the future sustainability of reform will rely not only on continued fiscal support to the health sector but also the maintenence of service provider satisfaction.Publication Evaluating the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2005-03-01)Several developing economies have recently introduced conditional cash transfer programs, which provide money to poor families contingent on certain behavior, usually investments in human capital, such as sending children to school or bringing them to health centers. The approach is both an alternative to more traditional social assistance programs and a demand-side complement to the supply of health and education services. Unlike most development initiatives, conditional cash transfer programs have been subject to rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness using experimental or quasi-experimental methods. Evaluation results for programs launched in Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Turkey reveal successes in addressing many of the failures in delivering social assistance, such as weak poverty targeting, disincentive effects, and limited welfare impacts. There is clear evidence of success from the first generation of programs in Colombia, Mexico, and Nicaragua in increasing enrollment rates, improving preventive health care, and raising household consumption. Many questions remain unanswered, however, including the potential of conditional cash transfer programs to function well under different conditions, to address a broader range of challenges among poor and vulnerable populations, and to prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty.Publication Government Spending on Health in Lao PDR : Evidence and Issues(Washington, DC, 2012-12)The note analyzes overall trends in government health financing and expenditure patterns and discusses some of the efficiency and equity issues pertaining to current government health spending patterns. The policy note is one of a series of health financing analyses, complementing earlier policy notes focusing on out-of-pocket spending as well as community-based and social health insurance schemes in the country. This reliance on out-of-pocket payments represents a considerable financial barrier to utilization of health services. The prominence of out-of-pocket spending in the form of user fees and revolving drug funds (RDFs) also raises concerns over management of funds at health facility level and regarding the potential for over prescription. In contrast, social health insurance expenditures are very low in Lao PDR: social insurance schemes cover about 11.4 percent of the population but account for only about 2.8 percent of total health spending. The Lao government has committed to increasing government spending to 9 percent of the budget, implying roughly a three-fold rise compared to plan spending for fiscal year 2011/12. If the policy goal is to raise government health spending equitably across the provinces, achieving it will be challenging. The overall economic outlook for Lao PDR is positive. Economic growth is projected to be 8.3 percent in 2012, and is expected to be in the range of 7-8 percent over the period 2013-2015. This note is one of a series of complementary health financing analyses on out-of-pocket spending and community-based and social health insurance schemes in the country. Additional analytical work in progress will review and assess demand-side pilot interventions currently being initiated by the government, such as the national free maternal and child health policy and the conditional cash transfer pilot.Publication Consolidation and Transparency : Transforming Tunisia’s Health Care for the Poor(World Bank, Washington DC, 2013-01)Since the 2011 popular revolution in Tunisia, calls for a new social contract have been made to improve social inclusion, including addressing gaps in health care coverage for the vulnerable households. This paper evaluates Tunisia's Free Medical Assistance for the Poor (FMAP) and seeks to identify opportunities to improve universal coverage in Tunisia. The study focuses on the structural and institutional framework of health care coverage for the poor in Tunisia in terms of strengths, weaknesses, and recommendations for achieving universal coverage. The paper reviews Tunisia's health financing and delivery system with a special emphasis on FMAP, and analyzes the main structural and targeting challenges the program faces. The distinctive characteristic of this paper is the focus on institutional design and organizational practice of FMAP. The legal and regulatory framework is assessed in terms of management, beneficiary targeting methods, benefits package, and the information environment. Section 2 provides an overview of health financing and service delivery in Tunisia, including the relationship between the FMAP and the main financing schemes. Section 3 describes key supply-side issues in terms of primary health care provision for the poor. Section 4 assesses the institutional framework of the FMAP in greater detail and its linkages to the health care delivery system. Section 5 focuses on beneficiary selection and targeting methods under the FMAP. Section 6 examines public financial management under the FMAP, which is followed by a discussion in Section 7 of the benefits package. Sections 8 and 9 describe the information environment of the FMAP and how this links to the special focus of future financing reforms. The concluding section discusses the pending agenda and priorities for the FMAP moving forward.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-09)Note: Chart 1.2.B has been updated on January 18, 2024. Chart 2.2.3 B has been updated on January 14, 2024. Global growth is expected to slow further this year, reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy to rein in inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment. Downside risks include an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East, financial stress, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected activity in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters. Against this backdrop, policy makers face enormous challenges. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), commodity exporters face the enduring challenges posed by fiscal policy procyclicality and volatility, which highlight the need for robust fiscal frameworks. Across EMDEs, previous episodes of investment growth acceleration underscore the critical importance of macroeconomic and structural policies and an enabling institutional environment in bolstering investment and long-term growth. At the global level, cooperation needs to be strengthened to provide debt relief, facilitate trade integration, tackle climate change, and alleviate food insecurity.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.