The Agricultural Exit Problem: An Empirical Assessment

Publication:
The Agricultural Exit Problem: An Empirical Assessment

dc.contributor.author	Bezemer, Dirk
dc.contributor.author	Hazell, Peter
dc.date.accessioned	2012-06-26T15:41:56Z
dc.date.available	2012-06-26T15:41:56Z
dc.date.issued	2006
dc.description.abstract	This paper documents the development of agriculture�s share in total employment in the developing world, and relates it to developments in per capita income. As suggested by Engel's Law, it finds a strong and robust negative correlation between GDP per capita and the share of the labor force employed in agriculture. Based on this result, the rates of exit from agriculture by 2015 for different regions of the world plus China and India are projected. The results show that Asian countries have or soon will reach a tipping point in their agricultural transformation when the absolute size of the agricultural workforce will begin to decline and large numbers of agricultural workers can be expected to leave agriculture by 2015. If Asia is to significantly reduce its levels of rural-urban income inequality, then the exit from agriculture will need to be even larger. The situation in Africa is more sanguine. If African countries continue to grow slowly if at all, then their agricultural work forces will continue to increase to 2015, even though agriculture�s employment share will fall slightly. The analysis shows little change in LAC, MENA or EE&CA.	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/9214
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/9214
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject	World Development Report 2008
dc.title	The Agricultural Exit Problem: An Empirical Assessment	en
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea	Fragility, Conflict, and Violence
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-05-05T12:11:10.722266Z
okr.globalpractice	Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice	Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience
okr.globalpractice	Poverty
okr.language.supported	en
okr.region.administrative	Africa
okr.region.administrative	Europe and Central Asia
okr.region.administrative	Latin America & Caribbean
okr.region.administrative	East Asia and Pacific
okr.region.administrative	South Asia
okr.relation.associatedurl	https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5990
okr.topic	Conflict and Development
okr.topic	Labor
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction
okr.topic	Private Sector
okr.topic	Rural Development