Publication: The Agricultural Exit Problem: An Empirical Assessment
Loading...
Files in English
399 downloads
Published
2006
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper documents the development of agriculture�s share in total employment in the developing world, and relates it to developments in per capita income. As suggested by Engel's Law, it finds a strong and robust negative correlation between GDP per capita and the share of the labor force employed in agriculture. Based on this result, the rates of exit from agriculture by 2015 for different regions of the world plus China and India are projected. The results show that Asian countries have or soon will reach a tipping point in their agricultural transformation when the absolute size of the agricultural workforce will begin to decline and large numbers of agricultural workers can be expected to leave agriculture by 2015. If Asia is to significantly reduce its levels of rural-urban income inequality, then the exit from agriculture will need to be even larger. The situation in Africa is more sanguine. If African countries continue to grow slowly if at all, then their agricultural work forces will continue to increase to 2015, even though agriculture�s employment share will fall slightly. The analysis shows little change in LAC, MENA or EE&CA.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Bezemer, Dirk; Hazell, Peter. 2006. The Agricultural Exit Problem: An Empirical Assessment. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9214 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Future of Small Farms : Synthesis Paper(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)Do small farms have a future in the developing world? Agriculture and small farms have played a major role in development and poverty reduction in the past, but changing global conditions and donor policies, and the characteristics of today's poor countries are widely acknowledged as making this much more difficult now. The paper develops a typology of country contexts in which the differing roles and needs for small scale agriculture development are considered. It clarifies current debates regarding (a) the potential for small farm development as a driver of growth and poverty reduction and (b) the roles of governments and the private sector in promoting such development.Publication Agricultural Employment Trends in Asia and Africa(World Bank, 2010-02-01)Contrary to conventional economic theories, the relationship between income growth and agricultural employment is extremely diverse, even among regions starting from similar levels of development, such as Asia and Africa. Due to its labor-intensive Green Revolution and strong farm–nonfarm linkages, Asia's development path is mostly characterized by fast growth with relatively slow agricultural exits. In contrast to Asia, urban biased policies, low rural population density, and high rates of population growth have led a number of African countries down a path of slow economic growth with surprisingly rapid agricultural exits. Despite this divergence both continents now face daunting employment problems. Asia appears to be increasingly vulnerable to rising inequality, slower job creation, and shrinking farm sizes, suggesting that Asian governments need to refocus on integrating smallholders and lagging regions into increasingly commercialized rural and urban economies. Africa, in contrast, has yet to achieve its own Green Revolution, which would still be a highly effective tool for job creation and poverty reduction. However, the diversity of its endowments and its tighter budget constraints mean that agricultural development strategies in Africa need to be highly context specific, financially sustainable, and more evidence-based.Publication Agricultural Biotechnology : Transgenics in Agriculture and their Implications for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008)Technological innovation in agriculture can bring enormous benefits to the poor. High-yielding varieties of staple food crops have improved agricultural productivity, raised incomes, and reduced food prices. Innovations in plant breeding research based on advances in genetics that make it possible to manipulate plant DNA. Referred to as 'biotechnology,' its use in agriculture is controversial, particularly with regard to the development and use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), also known as transgenics. Some believe that transgenics offer great potential for meeting the challenges of feeding the hungry and improving incomes while others are convinced that transgenics will unleash environmental catastrophes, worsen poverty and hunger, and place traditional agriculture and the global food supply at the mercy of corporate interests. This paper synthesizes the research on transgenics and discusses the implications of public sector support for it as a poverty reduction tool.Publication Feminization of Agriculture in China : Debunking the Myth and Measuring the Consequence of Women Participation in Agriculture(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-11)This paper helps build a clear picture of the role of women in China's agriculture and, if agricultural feminization has been occurring, its impact on labor use, productivity, and welfare. Using two data sets that track changes in labor use over time, the authors examine the evolution of off farm and on farm employment trends and analyze the role of men and women in the emergence of China's labor markets. They explore who is working on China's farms, and the effects of these decisions on labor use, productivity and welfare. The analysis debunks the myth that China's agriculture is becoming feminized. Even if women were taking over the farm, the consequences in China would be mostly positive from a labor supply, productivity and income point of view. There may be some lessons for the rest of the world on what policies and institutions help make women productive in a nation's agricultural sector. Policies that insure equal access to land, regulations that dictate open access to credit, and economic development strategies that encourage competitive and efficient markets all contribute to an environment in which women farmers can succeed.Publication Growing Ethical Networks : The Fair Trade Market for Raw and Processed Agricultural Products (in Five Parts) with Associated Case Studies on Africa and Latin America(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008)In the last decade, the "fair trade" of agricultural products and food has emerged as an important tool for creating markets for poor and small-scale farmers and simultaneously promoting pro-poor development. At its most basic, fair trade supports two processes: (1) explicit on-the-ground development for some of the most marginalized and poor actors in international agricultural commodity chains' smallholder farmers and plantation workers; and (2) clearly presenting and making visible the relations sustaining international commodities to consumers. In short, fair trade works to connect Southern producers with Northern consumers through international trade networks dedicated to community development.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication World Development Report 1994(New York: Oxford University Press, 1994)World Development Report 1994, the seventeenth in this annual series, examines the link between infrastructure and development and explores ways in which developing countries can improve both the provision and the quality of infrastructure services. In recent decades, developing countries have made substantial investments in infrastructure, achieving dramatic gains for households and producers by expanding their access to services such as safe water, sanitation, electric power, telecommunications, and transport. Even more infrastructure investment and expansion are needed in order to extend the reach of services - especially to people living in rural areas and to the poor. But as this report shows, the quantity of investment cannot be the exclusive focus of policy. Improving the quality of infrastructure service also is vital. Both quantity and quality improvements are essential to modernize and diversify production, help countries compete internationally, and accommodate rapid urbanization. The report identifies the basic cause of poor past performance as inadequate institutional incentives for improving the provision of infrastructure. To promote more efficient and responsive service delivery, incentives need to be changed through commercial management, competition, and user involvement. Several trends are helping to improve the performance of infrastructure. First, innovation in technology and in the regulatory management of markets makes more diversity possible in the supply of services. Second, an evaluation of the role of government is leading to a shift from direct government provision of services to increasing private sector provision and recent experience in many countries with public-private partnerships is highlighting new ways to increase efficiency and expand services. Third, increased concern about social and environmental sustainability has heightened public interest in infrastructure design and performance. This report includes the World Development Indicators, which offer selected social and economic statistics for 132 countries.Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.