Publication: Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa : Overview and Lessons from the Current Downturn
Loading...
Published
2010-05-01
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
In light of the proliferation of exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout the decades of adjustments. The results consistently highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have been significantly smaller in the region if countries had drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Fofack, Hippolyte. 2010. Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa : Overview and Lessons from the Current Downturn. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5306. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3791 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Fiscal Rules and the Pro-Cycylicality of Public Investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08)Evidence from a large panel of low-income and lower middle-income countries over the period 1995–2012 suggests that, contrary to other countries, public investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has been pro-cyclical. Public investment contracts more in “bad times” than it increases in “good times” and appears to have become pro-cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. The pro-cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect WAEMU countries justify exploring options for greater counter-cyclicality of rules-based fiscal frameworks and for risk-sharing.Publication Latvia - From Exuberance to Prudence : A Public Expenditure Review of Government Administration and the Social Sectors - Analytical Report(World Bank, 2010-09-27)This public expenditure review (PER) was conducted at the request of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Latvia. The objective of the PER is to identify potential areas of further budget savings in public administration and the social sectors that could help restore fiscal balance, speed Latvia's recovery from the current crisis, and help it to meet the Maastricht Criteria by 2012 so it can adopt the Euro in 2014. The remainder of this volume is structured in the following way. Section two recounts the events and circumstances that set the Government's fiscal stance in the years prior to the crisis. Section three summarizes the principal emergency measures the Government took to cope during 2008 and 2009 as the crisis broke and led to Latvia's severe economic contraction. The purpose of these sections which draw liberally from material prepared by the financial authorities, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central (EC) is to make the case for further fiscal adjustment plain. The report then summarizes the main messages and highlights the most important suggestions made in each of the longer, more detailed chapters of volume two of the review. Each section is followed by a matrix of the options presented for the Government to take into consideration. Given the important role that municipalities and republican cities play in the delivery of social services, the chapter three of volume two provides an in depth examination of local government finances and spending. Local authorities (municipalities and republican cities) play such a prominent role in the delivery of public services particularly social services that a close look at the character of their spending is critical.Publication Latvia - From Exuberance to Prudence : A Public Expenditure Review of Government Administration and the Social Sectors - Overview and Summary(World Bank, 2010-09-27)This public expenditure review (PER) was conducted at the request of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Latvia. The objective of the PER is to identify potential areas of further budget savings in public administration and the social sectors that could help restore fiscal balance, speed Latvia's recovery from the current crisis, and help it to meet the Maastricht Criteria by 2012 so it can adopt the Euro in 2014. The remainder of this volume is structured in the following way. Section two recounts the events and circumstances that set the Government's fiscal stance in the years prior to the crisis. Section three summarizes the principal emergency measures the Government took to cope during 2008 and 2009 as the crisis broke and led to Latvia's severe economic contraction. The purpose of these sections which draw liberally from material prepared by the financial authorities, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central (EC) is to make the case for further fiscal adjustment plain. The report then summarizes the main messages and highlights the most important suggestions made in each of the longer, more detailed chapters of volume two of the review. Each section is followed by a matrix of the options presented for the Government to take into consideration. Given the important role that municipalities and republican cities play in the delivery of social services, the chapter three of volume two provides an in depth examination of local government finances and spending. Local authorities (municipalities and republican cities) play such a prominent role in the delivery of public services particularly social services that a close look at the character of their spending is critical.Publication Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in Mauritania with a Stochastic Framework(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-11)This work presents a stochastic framework for assessing public debt sustainability and applies it to the case of Mauritania. The sustainability assessment projects solvency and liquidity indicators -- public debt stock and gross financing needs relative to GDP -- for 2014-23. The analysis uses deterministic scenarios and stochastic simulations to analyze policy options and fiscal risks. The study relies on simple econometric models to generate forecasts of key macroeconomic variables driving the public debt dynamics and to compute debt-distress probabilities and debt thresholds. The study builds on basic techniques to determine optimal portfolios suitable as benchmarks for public debt management. A main result is that, if Mauritania maintains a strong growth performance and pursues sound policies to balance the budget and take advantage of concessional financing opportunities, it could reduce the public debt from 74 percent of GDP in 2013 to 30 percent by 2023, and the gross financing needs from 12 percent of GDP to 4 percent. Further scaling up capital spending is likely to deteriorate public debt sustainability because the estimated (marginal) growth-dividend is small. A more promising avenue would be to improve the quality of public investment and institutions, as opposed to the volume of capital expenditure. Different debt strategies can significantly affect the liquidity needs and the on-budget interest bill. But it is the fiscal policy geared toward balanced budgets that ultimately would permit Mauritania to improve the solvency indicators, and thus the public debt sustainability.Publication Belarus Public Expenditure Review : Fiscal Reforms for a Sustainable Economic Recovery(World Bank, 2011-08-15)Belarus faces significant fiscal challenges, stemming from the structural features of its economic model. As of mid-2011, under a severe exchange rate and balance of payments crisis, the Government needs to pursue a carefully sequenced strategy of macroeconomic adjustment coupled with a strong program of structural reforms. This programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER) fiscal policy options to simultaneously tackle the need for fiscal consolidation as well as the structural challenges with significant fiscal linkages. The options for fiscal reform proposed in this report are estimated to generate average net fiscal savings of 3.9 percent of Gross Domestic product (GDP) annually over the medium term. Given the implied structural changes in the expenditure program, the fiscal impact of these reforms extends beyond the four year projection period.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication IFC Annual Report 2012 : Innovation, Influence, Demonstration, Volume 1. Impact(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012)This annual report of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) summarizes the innovation and leadership roles in the private sector during fiscal year 2012. The IFC invested a record $20.4 billion in 103 developing countries, reflecting a doubling of annual commitments over the last five years. Those investments included nearly $5 billion mobilized from other investors, and an investment for Sub-Saharan Africa totaling $2.7 billion, nearly twice as much as five years ago. The advisory services program expenditures grew to $197 million, up more than 50 percent over the last five years. Advisory services also helped 33 client governments introduce 56 investment-climate reforms that will improve access to basic services for more than 16 million people. IFC investment clients helped support 2.5 million jobs in 2011 and made 23 million loans totaling more than $200 billion to micro, small, and medium enterprises. Net income before grants to the International Development Association (IDA) totaled $1.66 billion. The IFC has invested more than $23 billion in IDA countries, nearly $6 billion of it in fiscal year 2012 alone.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Trade Credit(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-25)Trade credit remains an important source of finance for firms in developing countries and many firms in developed countries, especially those that are young, small, or informationally opaque for other reasons. This paper summarizes the literature and explains the pervasiveness of trade credit, detailing its potential advantages over formal credit in terms of the information that buyers and sellers have about each other and their ability to monitor one another. Because it requires less formal contract enforcement, trade credit can be especially relevant where the rule of law and the legal system are weak. At the same time, reliance on information from social networks and informal institutional arrangements limits the scale of trade credit, and thus moderate improvements to formal enforcement can expand trade credit beyond social networks and enable customers to switch suppliers, which improves their credit terms. The patterns suggest a sweet spot or “Goldilocks” region where mid-size firms and those in countries at middling levels of development tend to rely relatively more heavily on trade credit than others. Going forward, detailed data on the relationship between suppliers and customers are crucial to enable more direct tests of theoretical predictions regarding trade credit.Publication Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-Level Surveys(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02)This paper reviews both current practices and common challenges of measuring the causes, functioning, and consequences of violent conflict at the micro-level. The authors review existing conflict -- and violence-related survey questionnaires, with a particular focus on the World Bank's Living Standard Measurement Surveys. Further, they discuss methodological challenges associated with empirical work in conflict-affected areas—such as operationalizing a definition of conflict, using the appropriate units of analysis, deciding on the timing of the survey, dealing with data biases and conducting surveys in an ethically sound manner—and propose ways to improve the usefulness of existing surveys to analyze conflict processes at the micro-level. Violent conflict, households, survey methods, questionnaire design.Publication Savings, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in the Arab Republic of Egypt Revisited(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04)Private savings play a pivotal role in financing development and sustaining growth. Recently, there have been many theoretical developments that underpin key determinants of savings behavior, many of which merit empirical investigation. Understanding the dynamics of the determinants of savings is crucial to inform economic policy and devise reform programs. This paper builds on earlier work examining the stability of the long-run relationship between the real interest rate, financial saving, and total saving during 1960 to 1990. The paper extends the scope of the empirical investigation of the determinants of private savings behavior in the Arab Republic of Egypt, and considers the effect of financial development. The analysis uses quarterly data covering 1991–2010, adopting a vector error correction model. The key findings attest that private savings in Egypt follow the Life Cycle Model in the long term. Controlling for population growth, the analysis finds that the real interest rate and financial development are key determinates for real private savings in the long run. The negative long-run relation between the real interest rate and private savings holds under the proposed model structure as well as for that in the earlier work. However, in the short run, inflation and exchange rate movements are key determinants for private savings decisions. Robust economic policies, inclusive of macroeconomic and monetary measures, are prerequisites for maximizing private savings and financing growth in Egypt.