Publication: Lao PDR Economic Monitor, June 2020: Lao PDR in the Time of COVID-19
Loading...
Files in English
1,101 downloads
Date
2020-06
ISSN
Published
2020-06
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) has so far avoided a major health crisis but has not been immune from the global economic downturn. The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) induced economic downturn has affected Lao PDR through multiple channels including tourism, trade, investment, commodity prices, exchange rates, and lower remittances. This report presents a range of growth estimates for 2020 under two scenarios. These scenarios reflect different assumptions regarding: (i) the duration and depth of outbreaks and lockdown in Lao PDR, (ii) the magnitude and effectiveness of economic relief policies, and (iii) the depth and duration of the global downturn. The COVID-19 shock has further aggravated the long-standing structural vulnerabilities in the economy. The country has a legacy of weak macroeconomic management, resulting in limited fiscal and foreign currency buffers even before the global pandemic. Limited fiscal space and the mounting pressure of deficit financing and debt servicing will limit the ability of the Government of Lao PDR (GoL) to stimulate the economy, exacerbating the downturn.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. Lao PDR Economic Monitor, June 2020: Lao PDR in the Time of COVID-19. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34048 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2020(World Bank, Bangkok, 2020-06)The COVID-19 (coronavirus) shock hit Thailand in early 2020 adding to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Economic growth slowed from 4.2 percent in 2018 to 2.4 percent in 2019, with particularly weak performance in Q4 2019. The key drivers of slowing growth were weaker demand for exports reflecting the impact of US-China trade tensions, slowing public investments driven by delay in the passage of the FY 2020 budget, and a drought, impacting agricultural production. The COVID shock hit Thailand in early 2020 and has already had a significant economic impact, with a sharp growth contraction of 1.8 percent y-o-y and 2.2 percent q-o-q in Q1 2020. The Thai economy is projected to contract sharply in 2020, driven by a sharp deterioration in global and domestic demand. In the baseline, the economy is projected to contract by 5.0 percent in 2020, which is among the sharpest projected declines in the region. This is driven by a sharp decline in exports, particularly from tourism receipts and weakening global trade, and a slowdown in domestic demand reflecting the impact of mobility restrictions and mandated closures of businesses. The forecast is subject to future revisions, particularly on the downside, given heightened uncertainty surrounding the outbreak trajectory, globally and domestically.Publication Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-26)The Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has interrupted Myanmar’s economic expansion, and while Myanmar is expected to narrowly escape a recession, helped by a strong start to the fiscal year, policy responses, and the limited disease outbreak, the growth recovery is at great risk. Myanmar’s GDP growth is estimated to drop from 6.8 percent in FY2018/19 to 0.5 percent in FY2019/20. Following strong activity in the first five months of the year, the pandemic and associated containment measures are undermining aggregate demand, disrupting value chains, and reducing the labor supply. The crisis has had an especially negative effect on wholesale and retail trade, tourism-related services, manufacturing, and construction, though weakening consumer demand is also projected to ease inflationary pressures in FY2019/20. Under the baseline scenario, Myanmar’s GDP growth rate is projected to rise to 7.2 percent in the medium term, assuming that the domestic spread of the virus is brought under control, the impacts of the government’s small but targeted Covid-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) materialize, and the global economy recovers. The anticipated recovery will be supported by rising investment in infrastructure and services, rebounding exports, and increased private consumption. However, risks to this year’s growth estimate and the outlook are tilted heavily to the downside, as the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic could delay the resumption of economic activity. In all scenarios, severe damage to the operation of firms and the welfare of households is expected to pose serious risks to Myanmar’s remarkable progress on poverty reduction.Publication Jordan Economic Monitor, June 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The COVID-19 pandemic has created a severe global recession. The global economy, after showing a moderate recovery in 2019, is currently reeling from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic which, besides taking a toll on human life, has pushed the global economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression due to the lockdowns aimed at controlling the spread of the virus. Starting as a supply shock, the pandemic has triggered an unprecedented demand shock that led to significant decline in global commodity prices, especially oil prices. The lockdowns have also amplified pre-existing vulnerabilities such as weak governance, large labor market informality, and limited fiscal space. This constrained fiscal space, for example, limits countries'room to maneuver with already high levels of debt and tightening external financing conditions. The recent global developments along with domestic disruptions due to pandemic measures are severely impacting the already struggling Jordanian economy and its prospects. For the fourth year in a row, in 2019 Jordan's economy continued to drift around a tepid 2.0 percent growth rate. Such a growth rate is not sufficient to tackle some pressing socio-economic issues, such as a low labor force participation and high unemployment, particularly among women and youth. On the macro front, while there was significant reduction recorded in external imbalances during 2019, supported by healthy growth in exports and travel receipts, fiscal policy remained expansionary and pushed the debt-to-GDP ratio to almost 100 percent. Within this context, the country is facing significant economic challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic through both external and domestic channels. These challenges are amplified because Jordan has large linkages to the external world.Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, July 2020(World Bank, Lilongwe, 2020-07)Malawi’s new Government has inherited a difficult situation: the global COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the country’s trajectory for a third straight year of faster growth, and tackling its impacts will present a considerable challenge. Growth improved to an estimated 4.4 percent in 2019, up from 3.5 percent in 2018, reflecting a rebound in agriculture. Improved agricultural production supported stronger performance in the industrial and service sectors. The uptick in growth also indicated resilience in Malawi’s economy in light of the impact of Cyclone Idai and considerable political uncertainty. The economy was on a trajectory for its third consecutive year of faster growth in 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full extent of the epidemic’s negative impact is uncertain as the crisis is still unfolding, but a host of external and internal factors are dampening the Malawi economy. Global factors include both supply and demand channels. Disrupted supply chains have reduced imports of key production inputs, particularly from South Africa and China. However, exports from both countries have partially rebounded after their strict containment measures have been reduced earlier in the pandemic. Preliminary data indicates that imports were 26 percent lower in April and May 2020 compared to the same time last year. Increased trade logistics costs and delays are also affecting the flow of goods through borders. On the demand side, decreased demand from key trade partners is weighing on exports. The tobacco auction season through early July has seen a decrease in sales, with a 11.9 percent reduction in sales values, due to a 14.7 percent reduction in volumes partially offset by a 3.2 percent increase in average price. Tourism has already been severely affected. Remittances (through money transfer) decreased by 57 percent y-o-y in April before rebounding in May, when they were still 15 percent lower than the year prior.Publication Philippines Economic Update, June 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-01)A series of unforeseen events caused an abrupt halt to the Philippines' strong growth momentum in early 2020. The Philippine economy carried its strong growth momentum from the second half of 2019 into early 2020 thanks to positive consumer confidence, robust macroeconomic fundamentals, and an improvement in the external sector. However, the eruption of Taal Volcano in early January, the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the region, and the rise of COVID-19 infection cases in the Philippines in March, forced the economy to a near halt in the latter part of March due to severe disruptions in manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and hospitality, construction, and trade. The economy contracted by 0.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first contraction in over two decades, and was a sharp reversal from the 5.7 percent growth over the same period in 2019. Leading indicators that track economic activity in real time suggest that the contraction would be even more severe in the second quarter as most regions of the country entered an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in mid-March.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication The World Bank Group Beyond the Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-10-09)Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank, addressed the following issues: seeds of crisis; the changing context; responsible globalization; the current role of the World Bank Group; the role of the World Bank Group in a new post-crisis World; and the reform agenda. He pointed to four aspects of Group’s future role: development finance; delivering knowledge products; the global public goods agenda (such as climate change and communicable diseases); and unforeseen future crises. Reform efforts include: 1) improving development effectiveness with a focus on results, decentralization, gender, investment lending reform, and human resources; 2) promoting accountability and good governance, and 3) increasing cost efficiency. He noted the completion of recent enhancements to the voice and representation of developing and transition countries in the Bank Group. Bretton Woods is being overhauled before our eyes.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Remarks to the Annual Meetings 2020 Development Committee(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-16)David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, announced that the Board approved a fast track approach to emergency health support programs that now covers 111 countries. Most projects are well advanced, with average disbursement upward of 40 percent. The goal is to take broad, fast action early. The operational framework presented back in June has positioned the Bank to help countries address immediate health threats and social and economic impacts and maintain our focus on long-term development. The Bank is making good progress toward the 15-month target of 160 billion dollars in surge financing. Much of it is for the poorest countries and will take the form of grants or low-rate, long-maturity loans. IFC, through the Global Health Platform, will be providing financing to vaccine manufacturers to foster expanded production of COVID-19 vaccines in both part 1 and 2 countries, providing production is reserved for emerging markets. The Development Committee holds a unique place in the international architecture. It is the only global forum in which the Governments of developed countries and the Governments of developing countries, creditor countries and borrower countries, come together to discuss development and the ‘net transfer of resources to developing countries.’ The current International Financial Architecture system is skewed in favor of the rich and creditor countries. It is important that all voices are heard, so Malpass urged the Ministers of developing countries to use their voice and speak their minds today. Malpass urged consideration of how we can build a new approach to debt restructuring that allows for a fair relationship and balance between creditors and debtors. This will be critical in restoring growth in developing countries; and helping reverse the inequality.