Publication:
Lying to the Taxman or Accepting a Helping Hand?: Evidence from a Novel Experiment on SMEs in Tanzania

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (741.21 KB)
179 downloads
English Text (67.02 KB)
12 downloads
Published
2025-02-10
ISSN
Date
2025-02-10
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper presents the results from a novel field experiment that examined the impact of in- creasing the presence of revenue authority officers on tax compliance and tax morale among small and medium-size enterprises in a lower-income country. The experiment was embedded in the implementation of a representative, face-to-face survey of SMEs across mainland Tanzania. An independent survey firm was accompanied by Tanzania Revenue Authority officers, who observed the interviews in a randomly selected set of urban and peri-urban wards. This translated into a temporary increase in the presence of tax officers throughout parts of the country. The findings indicate that an increase in tax officer presence did not have a significant overall impact on tax compliance and tax morale among SMEs, as measured using a combination of administrative and survey data. However, there were short-term increases in compliance in the largest city and sustained increases in tax morale in the rest of the country. A follow-up survey suggests that these results were likely driven by an increase in the perceived credibility of enforcement rather than meaningful increases in perceptions of facilitation and trust.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Paul, Revocatus; Mdee, Ephraim; Fimbo, Massaga; Karver, Jonathan; Chaudhry, Zain; Hoy, Christopher. 2025. Lying to the Taxman or Accepting a Helping Hand?: Evidence from a Novel Experiment on SMEs in Tanzania. Policy Research Working Paper; 11062. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42786 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05) Foster, Elizabeth; Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Lakner, Christoph; Tettah-Baah, Samuel
    Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    The Marshall Plan: Then and Now
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14) Kedrosky, Davis; Mokyr, Joel
    This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Geopolitical Risks and Trade
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23) Mulabdic, Alen; Yotov, Yoto V.
    This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Trade-offs in the Design of Simplified Tax Regimes
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-19) Hoy, Christopher; Scot, Thiago; Oguso, Alex; Custers, Anna; Zalo, Daniel; Doino, Ruggero; Karver, Jonathan; Orgeira Pillai, Nicolas
    This paper provides novel evidence of the trade-offs policy makers face when designing simplified tax regimes for small businesses. First, it provides a comprehensive stocktaking of the main features of these regimes across Sub-Saharan Africa: they are adopted by two-thirds of countries, but their design varies greatly. Second, it draws on administrative and survey data for a thorough examination of a specific simplified tax regime. This analysis shows most small businesses lack knowledge about design features, such as the existence of a minimum exemption threshold, but they react strongly to increases in tax rates by lowering their declared turnover. Finally, the paper presents the results of an experiment that encourages taxpayers to pay fixed amounts—a potential alternative design of a simplified tax regime that aims for a better balance of the trade-offs facing policy makers. The findings show that providing simple guidance about how much small businesses with similar characteristics typically pay in taxes can increase revenue, but this reduces equity among taxpayers.
  • Publication
    Nudging in the Time of the Coronavirus
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-07) Karver, Jonathan George; Shijaku, Hilda; Ungerer, Christoph T F
    This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial testing the effectiveness of taxpayer communications informed by behavioral science in inducing business payroll tax compliance at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, an experimental tax trial targeting 5,423 firms was implemented, coinciding with the national lockdown due to the global pandemic. The Albanian tax authority sent postal letters to employers and selected employees highlighting a suspicion that wages were under-declared to avoid personal income tax withholding. Employers and employees suspected of under-declaring were randomly assigned to receive a soft-tone letter (highlighting the social importance of contributing through taxes), a strong-tone letter (highlighting the penalties associated with under-declaring), or none (forming a control group against which the impact of receiving the letters could be estimated). For employers receiving soft-tone letters, the study finds large, statistically significant increases on subsequent payroll declarations (by as much as 10 percent relative to the control group), which gradually attenuate over the following six months. No statistically significant effects are found for letters sent to employees or strong-tone letters. The findings highlight (i) the importance of framing of communications as well as the importance of smart selection of letter recipients for taxpayer communication campaigns, (ii) which type of taxpayer communications were most effective in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and (iii) the role that randomized controlled trials and behavioral science can play in strengthening the effectiveness of government policy, particularly for public revenue mobilization.
  • Publication
    A Helping Hand or the Long Arm of the Law? Experimental Evidence on What Governments Can Do to Formalize Firms
    (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013-05) Henrique de Andrade, Gustavo; McKenzie, David; Bruhn, Miriam
    Many governments have spent much of the past decade trying to extend a helping hand to informal businesses by making it easier and cheaper for them to formalize. Much less effort has been devoted to raising the costs of remaining informal, through increasing enforcement of existing regulations. This paper reports on a field experiment conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in order to test which government actions work in getting informal firms to register. Firms were randomized to a control group or one of four treatment groups: the first received information about how to formalize; the second received this information and free registration costs along with the use of an accountant for a year; the third group was assigned to receive an enforcement visit from a municipal inspector; while the fourth group was assigned to have a neighboring firm receive an enforcement visit to see if enforcement has spillovers. The analysis finds zero or negative impacts of information and free cost treatments, and a significant but small increase in formalization from inspections. Estimates of the impact of actually receiving an inspection give a 21 to 27 percentage point increase in the likelihood of formalizing. The results show most informal firms will not formalize unless forced to do so, suggesting formality offers little private benefit to them. But the tax revenue benefits to the government of bringing firms of this size into the formal system more than offset the costs of inspections.
  • Publication
    Giving Sisyphus a Helping Hand
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03) Ladegaard, Peter; Lundkvist, Petter; Kamkhaji, Jonathan
    Regulatory impact assessment is a tool used by governments to support evidence-based and coordinated policy making. This paper contributes to the debate on regulatory impact assessment in developing countries by addressing the lack of a systematic account of reforms, and the lack of a comprehensive explanatory account of reform outcomes. The study first maps developing countries' regulatory impact assessment reforms between 2001 and 2016. In total, 60 reforms are identified. Reform design is analyzed by measuring adherence to six internationally recognized "good practices." The study then assesses whether the reforms -- two years or more after they were launched -- led to functioning regulatory impact assessment systems. Of the 60 reforms, 20 led to functional systems within two years of the conclusion of the reform. Three reforms were too recent to be assessed. The study shows that adherence to good practices is a necessary but not sufficient condition for early success. Among the six good practices, two are shown to be particularly decisive for the success of regulatory impact assessment reforms, namely, formal integration of regulatory impact assessment in policy making and the presence of a regulatory oversight unit. The second part of the study analyzes regulatory impact assessment reforms that did not produce early success despite adhering to good practices. The study tests several hypothetical reasons for slow developments. It points to the importance of donor flexibility and patience and the need for building reform constituencies inside and outside government. The traditional orthodoxy of regulatory impact assessment reforms as an extension of red tape reduction is challenged. The paper finally presents several possible policy implications of the findings.
  • Publication
    A Helping Hand or the Long Arm of the Law?
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2016-01) de Adrade, Gustavo Henrique; McKenzie, David; Bruhn, Miriam
    We conducted a field experiment in Belo Horizonte, Brazil to test which government actions work to encourage informal firms to register. We find zero or negative impacts of information and free cost treatments and a significant but small increase in formalization from inspections. The local average treatment effect estimates of the inspection impact are larger, providing a 21 to 27 percentage point increase in the likelihood of formalizing. The results show that most informal firms will not formalize unless forced to do so, suggesting that formality offers little private benefit to these firms.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004) Zall Kusek, Jody; Rist, Ray C.
    An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.
  • Publication
    Tanzania Jobs Diagnostic
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018) Petracco, Carly; Sanchez-Reaza, Javier
    Tanzania has just entered a phase of growing dependency rates that will put pressure on job creation so that the larger number of dependents do not fall into poverty. However, the new millions of jobs that will be needed in the next decade is only part of the challenge. It is important to create better jobs. An economy that produces plenty of good jobs is the most direct way to continue the trajectory toward lower poverty rates. Challenges to creating more and better jobs for the poor and vulnerable groups stem from both labor demand and supply issues. On the demand side, large firms in a few sectors dominate. Possibly because of that dominance, micro and small firms find it difficult to grow and provide new jobs. Firms’ relatively restricted market access may also be a crucial factor in explaining comparative low productivity and employment. Trade expansion and a well-connected economy would address issues of comparative low-productivity and employment. On the supply side, urban areas have high unemployment. In rural areas, underemployment is on the rise. The fall in unemployment rates may be largely explained by discouraged workers withdrawing from the labor force. Where there is willingness to work—like with women and young workers—disparities in the access to quality employment is an obstacle. Finally, the rise in educational attainment was insufficient to address labor market challenges likely due to the fall in the quality of education. The objective of the Jobs Diagnostic (JD) is to identify the main challenges to job creation and to improve the quality and inclusiveness of employment. The JD is a data-driven exercise that looks at macroeconomic and demographic factors, as well as labor supply and demand to pinpoint the main constraints for a jobs-rich growth path. The fact that JDs are data-driven allows for international comparisons based on standardized datasets.The JD covers three main areas: macro and demographic trends, labor supply, and labor demand. The first section looks at the relationships between employment growth, labor productivity, and economic growth to set the macro context to later examine labor supply and demand. The second section cover labor supply. It aims to identify trends in labor supply to understand the population’s needs for employment, the unemployment challenges, underemployment, and waged and informal employment. These trends include working-age population (WAP), labor force, and inactivity. Once identified, international comparisons are based on a global harmonized household database (International Income Distribution Dataset— ‘I2D2’). The labor supply section in JDs employs a set of harmonized variables that are comparable across countries and time. The third section covers labor demand. It aims to identify the links between sectoral productivity, size, age, and other characteristics to assess the constraints for employment growth, productivity, and wages. Firm-level datasets such as Enterprise Surveys, (which allow for some international benchmarking), or censuses of enterprises are used to do this. The demand for labor is derived from the production of goods and services by entrepreneurs to meet the demand for products in an economy. The analysis also highlights who gets the jobs created in the economy and what variables determine earnings and employment. A JD analyzes a country’s economic transformations in relation to other experiences. There are three important aspects of such transformation: Structural transformation (the movement of labor across sectors); Spatial transformation (or “urbanization”; the movement of labor across places); and Organizational transformation (or “formalization”; the movement from informality to formal work, and from self to waged employment). A JD also identifies the characteristics of individuals that can access jobs in the economy, and those who are left behind.
  • Publication
    Wealth Sharing for Conflict Prevention and Economic Growth : Botswana Case Study of Natural Resource Utilization for Peace and Development
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-12) Sebudubudu, David
    There are countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and even a few such countries in Africa that are using non-renewable resources to drive development and have not experienced conflict. South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia are such typical cases in Africa. Instead, the presence of significant minerals in Botswana is associated with economic development and democracy as well as peace. This paper applies the "resource curse", thesis to the case of Botswana, a country that is rich in minerals, yet it has realized positive development thus avoiding conflict and 'the resource curse'. The focus of this study is to examine the experience of Botswana in using natural resources to promote equitable development and thereby avoid conflict which often results from selfish private or ethnic group interests that elsewhere have used natural resources to the exclusion of other groups in society. This study specifically looks at the conditions and factors that facilitated the absence of internal conflict in the extraction of natural resources in Botswana. The key questions answered are: what contextual conditions and factors facilitated the peaceful extraction of natural resources in Botswana?; and were these factors unique to Botswana or can they be replicated elsewhere?. The first chapter gives introduction. The second chapter deals with the socio-political setting of the chiefs' rule during the pre-colonial and colonial periods. The third chapter discusses Botswana's democracy and how it has evolved not only to democratize society but also to become a management culture of good governance for defining how the natural resources will be utilized for the country's development. Chapter four outlines the mineral resource base of Botswana and the policies and strategies used by government in ensuring that such resources were used for public good rather than the self-interest of either the leaders or mining houses. Chapter five focuses attention on cases of local conflicts relating to mineral and other natural resources around different parts of the country. Chapter six brings the issues together to explain Botswana's democratic and mineral dividends in attaining a high development success rate. Chapter seven presents conclusion.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 1984
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984) World Bank
    Long-term needs and sustained effort are underlying themes in this year's report. As with most of its predecessors, it is divided into two parts. The first looks at economic performance, past and prospective. The second part is this year devoted to population - the causes and consequences of rapid population growth, its link to development, why it has slowed down in some developing countries. The two parts mirror each other: economic policy and performance in the next decade will matter for population growth in the developing countries for several decades beyond. Population policy and change in the rest of this century will set the terms for the whole of development strategy in the next. In both cases, policy changes will not yield immediate benefits, but delay will reduce the room for maneuver that policy makers will have in years to come.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2017
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-01-30) World Bank Group
    Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? This book addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.