Publication:
Lying to the Taxman or Accepting a Helping Hand?: Evidence from a Novel Experiment on SMEs in Tanzania

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (741.21 KB)
89 downloads
English Text (67.02 KB)
8 downloads
Date
2025-02-10
ISSN
Published
2025-02-10
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper presents the results from a novel field experiment that examined the impact of in- creasing the presence of revenue authority officers on tax compliance and tax morale among small and medium-size enterprises in a lower-income country. The experiment was embedded in the implementation of a representative, face-to-face survey of SMEs across mainland Tanzania. An independent survey firm was accompanied by Tanzania Revenue Authority officers, who observed the interviews in a randomly selected set of urban and peri-urban wards. This translated into a temporary increase in the presence of tax officers throughout parts of the country. The findings indicate that an increase in tax officer presence did not have a significant overall impact on tax compliance and tax morale among SMEs, as measured using a combination of administrative and survey data. However, there were short-term increases in compliance in the largest city and sustained increases in tax morale in the rest of the country. A follow-up survey suggests that these results were likely driven by an increase in the perceived credibility of enforcement rather than meaningful increases in perceptions of facilitation and trust.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Paul, Revocatus; Mdee, Ephraim; Fimbo, Massaga; Karver, Jonathan; Chaudhry, Zain; Hoy, Christopher. 2025. Lying to the Taxman or Accepting a Helping Hand?: Evidence from a Novel Experiment on SMEs in Tanzania. Policy Research Working Paper; 11062. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42786 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) Vagliasindi, Maria; Gorgulu, Nisan
    This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
  • Publication
    Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2025-04-04) Borin, Alessandro; Mancini, Michele; Taglioni, Daria
    This paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chains (GVC), crucial for informed policy-making. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two-sided) covering trade and production data. The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications over-estimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.
  • Publication
    Participation in Pension Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-24) Giles, John; Joubert, Clément; Tanaka, Tomoaki
    Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly but stagnation of growth in participation in pension programs, due to widespread informal employment, presents a major fiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design of pension program rules can encourage more pension contributions, while others push for universal non-contributory pensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literature on the determinants of active participation in pension systems in high- informality settings. An emerging body of evidence shows that participation responds significantly to financial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strategies to cover longevity risk, including support through the family, which will remain crucial for many older people in fiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makers should integrate the design of contributory pensions, social pensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderly support and consider how all three interact. To inform such efforts, these interactions must be more systematically investigated, and the empirical evidence must be expanded beyond a small number of middle-income countries.
  • Publication
    Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-14) Deininger, Klaus; Hilhorst, Thea; Zevenbergen, Jaap; Nkurunziza, Emmanuel
    Property registries have long been a pillar of state capacity and a basis for private market activity. While registry establishment and operation traditionally were costly and time consuming, digital technology makes low-cost registry operation and wide outreach easier. To guide developing countries aiming to establish such registries and measure progress, this paper develops indicators (in terms of digital coverage, interoperability, and property taxation for local service delivery and public land management) of effective digital registry service provision. Data from 85 countries highlight vast differences and provide suggestions for strategic reforms as well as a basis for measuring progress over time. Expanding geographical coverage and collecting these indicators on a regular basis could provide guidance to improve the way in which, by protecting property, the state creates the basis for widely shared prosperity and a livable environment.
  • Publication
    Bridging the Gap
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-21) Kruse, Hagen; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Tourek, Gabriel; Xie, Zoe Leiyu
    This paper examines tax revenue shortfalls in South Asian countries. On average during 2019–23, South Asian revenues totaled 18 percent of GDP—well below the average 24 percent among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Econometric estimates from stochastic frontier analysis, which control for tax rates and the size of potential tax bases, suggest that tax revenues in the region are 1 to 7 percentage points of GDP below potential, with shortfalls in five of the region’s eight countries larger than in the average EMDE. Even after controlling for country characteristics, such as widespread informal economic activity outside the tax net and large agriculture sectors, sizable tax gaps remain, suggesting the need for improved tax policy and administration. The paper discusses and provides evidence from international experience with reforms to raise government revenues.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Trade-offs in the Design of Simplified Tax Regimes
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-19) Hoy, Christopher; Scot, Thiago; Oguso, Alex; Custers, Anna; Zalo, Daniel; Doino, Ruggero; Karver, Jonathan; Orgeira Pillai, Nicolas
    This paper provides novel evidence of the trade-offs policy makers face when designing simplified tax regimes for small businesses. First, it provides a comprehensive stocktaking of the main features of these regimes across Sub-Saharan Africa: they are adopted by two-thirds of countries, but their design varies greatly. Second, it draws on administrative and survey data for a thorough examination of a specific simplified tax regime. This analysis shows most small businesses lack knowledge about design features, such as the existence of a minimum exemption threshold, but they react strongly to increases in tax rates by lowering their declared turnover. Finally, the paper presents the results of an experiment that encourages taxpayers to pay fixed amounts—a potential alternative design of a simplified tax regime that aims for a better balance of the trade-offs facing policy makers. The findings show that providing simple guidance about how much small businesses with similar characteristics typically pay in taxes can increase revenue, but this reduces equity among taxpayers.
  • Publication
    Nudging in the Time of the Coronavirus
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-07) Karver, Jonathan George; Shijaku, Hilda; Ungerer, Christoph T F
    This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial testing the effectiveness of taxpayer communications informed by behavioral science in inducing business payroll tax compliance at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, an experimental tax trial targeting 5,423 firms was implemented, coinciding with the national lockdown due to the global pandemic. The Albanian tax authority sent postal letters to employers and selected employees highlighting a suspicion that wages were under-declared to avoid personal income tax withholding. Employers and employees suspected of under-declaring were randomly assigned to receive a soft-tone letter (highlighting the social importance of contributing through taxes), a strong-tone letter (highlighting the penalties associated with under-declaring), or none (forming a control group against which the impact of receiving the letters could be estimated). For employers receiving soft-tone letters, the study finds large, statistically significant increases on subsequent payroll declarations (by as much as 10 percent relative to the control group), which gradually attenuate over the following six months. No statistically significant effects are found for letters sent to employees or strong-tone letters. The findings highlight (i) the importance of framing of communications as well as the importance of smart selection of letter recipients for taxpayer communication campaigns, (ii) which type of taxpayer communications were most effective in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and (iii) the role that randomized controlled trials and behavioral science can play in strengthening the effectiveness of government policy, particularly for public revenue mobilization.
  • Publication
    A Helping Hand or the Long Arm of the Law? Experimental Evidence on What Governments Can Do to Formalize Firms
    (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013-05) Henrique de Andrade, Gustavo; McKenzie, David; Bruhn, Miriam
    Many governments have spent much of the past decade trying to extend a helping hand to informal businesses by making it easier and cheaper for them to formalize. Much less effort has been devoted to raising the costs of remaining informal, through increasing enforcement of existing regulations. This paper reports on a field experiment conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in order to test which government actions work in getting informal firms to register. Firms were randomized to a control group or one of four treatment groups: the first received information about how to formalize; the second received this information and free registration costs along with the use of an accountant for a year; the third group was assigned to receive an enforcement visit from a municipal inspector; while the fourth group was assigned to have a neighboring firm receive an enforcement visit to see if enforcement has spillovers. The analysis finds zero or negative impacts of information and free cost treatments, and a significant but small increase in formalization from inspections. Estimates of the impact of actually receiving an inspection give a 21 to 27 percentage point increase in the likelihood of formalizing. The results show most informal firms will not formalize unless forced to do so, suggesting formality offers little private benefit to them. But the tax revenue benefits to the government of bringing firms of this size into the formal system more than offset the costs of inspections.
  • Publication
    Giving Sisyphus a Helping Hand
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03) Ladegaard, Peter; Lundkvist, Petter; Kamkhaji, Jonathan
    Regulatory impact assessment is a tool used by governments to support evidence-based and coordinated policy making. This paper contributes to the debate on regulatory impact assessment in developing countries by addressing the lack of a systematic account of reforms, and the lack of a comprehensive explanatory account of reform outcomes. The study first maps developing countries' regulatory impact assessment reforms between 2001 and 2016. In total, 60 reforms are identified. Reform design is analyzed by measuring adherence to six internationally recognized "good practices." The study then assesses whether the reforms -- two years or more after they were launched -- led to functioning regulatory impact assessment systems. Of the 60 reforms, 20 led to functional systems within two years of the conclusion of the reform. Three reforms were too recent to be assessed. The study shows that adherence to good practices is a necessary but not sufficient condition for early success. Among the six good practices, two are shown to be particularly decisive for the success of regulatory impact assessment reforms, namely, formal integration of regulatory impact assessment in policy making and the presence of a regulatory oversight unit. The second part of the study analyzes regulatory impact assessment reforms that did not produce early success despite adhering to good practices. The study tests several hypothetical reasons for slow developments. It points to the importance of donor flexibility and patience and the need for building reform constituencies inside and outside government. The traditional orthodoxy of regulatory impact assessment reforms as an extension of red tape reduction is challenged. The paper finally presents several possible policy implications of the findings.
  • Publication
    A Helping Hand or the Long Arm of the Law?
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2016-01) de Adrade, Gustavo Henrique; McKenzie, David; Bruhn, Miriam
    We conducted a field experiment in Belo Horizonte, Brazil to test which government actions work to encourage informal firms to register. We find zero or negative impacts of information and free cost treatments and a significant but small increase in formalization from inspections. The local average treatment effect estimates of the inspection impact are larger, providing a 21 to 27 percentage point increase in the likelihood of formalizing. The results show that most informal firms will not formalize unless forced to do so, suggesting that formality offers little private benefit to these firms.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Supporting Youth at Risk
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008) Cohan, Lorena M.; Cunningham, Wendy; Naudeau, Sophie; McGinnis, Linda
    The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.
  • Publication
    Africa's Future, Africa's Challenge : Early Childhood Care and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Garcia, Marito; Pence, Alan; Evans, Judith L.
    This book seeks to achieve a balance, describing challenges that are being faced as well as developments that are underway. It seeks a balance in terms of the voices heard, including not just voices of the North commenting on the South, but voices from the South, and in concert with the North. It seeks to provide the voices of specialists and generalists, of those from international and local organizations, from academia and the field. It seeks a diversity of views and values. Such diversity and complexity are the reality of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) today. The major focus of this book is on SSA from the Sahel south. Approximately 130 million children between birth and age 6 live in SSA. Every year 27 million children are born, and every year 4.7 million children under age 5 die. Rates of birth and of child deaths are consistently higher in SSA than in any other part of the world; the under-5 mortality rate of 163 per 1,000 is twice that of the rest of the developing world and 30 times that of industrialized countries (UNICEF 2006). Of the children who are born, 65 percent will experience poverty, 14 million will be orphans affected by HIV/AIDS directly and within their families and one-third will experience exclusion because of their gender or ethnicity.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 1984
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984) World Bank
    Long-term needs and sustained effort are underlying themes in this year's report. As with most of its predecessors, it is divided into two parts. The first looks at economic performance, past and prospective. The second part is this year devoted to population - the causes and consequences of rapid population growth, its link to development, why it has slowed down in some developing countries. The two parts mirror each other: economic policy and performance in the next decade will matter for population growth in the developing countries for several decades beyond. Population policy and change in the rest of this century will set the terms for the whole of development strategy in the next. In both cases, policy changes will not yield immediate benefits, but delay will reduce the room for maneuver that policy makers will have in years to come.
  • Publication
    Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004) Zall Kusek, Jody; Rist, Ray C.
    An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2017
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-01-30) World Bank Group
    Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? This book addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.