Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954

Publication:
Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply

dc.contributor.author	Fukase, Emiko
dc.contributor.author	Martin, Will
dc.date.accessioned	2020-06-11T15:26:25Z
dc.date.available	2020-06-11T15:26:25Z
dc.date.issued	2020-08
dc.description.abstract	In recent years, developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables. Using a resource-based measure of food production and consumption that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with animal-based foods, this article finds per capita demand growth to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario to 2050 from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which assumes continued income convergence, the article finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be about a third greater than under a hypothetical scenario of all countries growing at the same rate (78 percent). As convergence increases the growth of food supply by less than demand, it appears to be a driver of upward pressure on world food prices.	en
dc.identifier.citation	World Development
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/33877
dc.identifier.issn	0305-750X
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/33877
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	CEREAL EQUIVALENTS
dc.subject	DIETARY PATTERN
dc.subject	INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject	FOOD SECURITY
dc.subject	GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND
dc.subject	INCOME CONVERGENCE
dc.title	Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply	en
dc.type	Journal Article	en
dc.type	Article de journal	fr
dc.type	Artículo de revista	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.associatedcontent	https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28918 Working paper (pre-print version)	en
okr.associatedcontent	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20300802 Journal website (version of record)
okr.crossref.title	Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply
okr.date.disclosure	2020-06-08
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Journal Article
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.externalcontent	External Content
okr.guid	589331617038806321
okr.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/33877
okr.identifier.report	157778
okr.journal.nbpages	104954
okr.language.supported	en
okr.peerreview	Academic Peer Review
okr.topic	Agriculture::Food Security
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Development Patterns and Poverty
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Living Standards
okr.unit	Chief Economist office for Africa region (AFRCE)
okr.volume	132
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	d6af18a6-3a50-5065-99ee-20853402f262
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	d6af18a6-3a50-5065-99ee-20853402f262