Publication:
Harnessing the Global Recovery, A Tough Road Ahead

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2014-04-15T18:25:45Z
dc.date.available2014-04-15T18:25:45Z
dc.date.issued2014-04
dc.description.abstractMany countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will start to benefit from stronger external demand in the high-income economies, as the global economy is set for a rebound in 2014. After a marked slowdown in 2013, a recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase by 0.8 percentage points compared to 2013. Global output is expected to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2015. The World Bank estimates that growth in the United States (U.S.) will increase by 1 percentage point reaching 2.8 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015; and the Euro Zone will improve to 1.1 percent and accelerate to 1.4 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, relative to negative 0.4 percent growth in 2013. The growth rebound in the Euro Zone is largely export led, with Germany and France continuing to expand at a solid pace, and Spain exiting recession. The world travel and tourism council estimates show that tourism revenues will increase by 7 percent in the MENA region in 2015 relative to 2014. To be sure, the global recovery is still fragile and downside risks, including continued low inflation in high-income economies, which can weaken demand and delay the economic recovery, and the escalation of conflict in Ukraine remain. This report presents the short-term, regional macroeconomic outlook, and economic challenges facing the countries in the MENA region. In this report, the MENA region is divided into three subgroups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil exporters, developing oil exporters, and oil importers.en
dc.description.abstractComparée aux trois dernières années, 2014 semble prometteuse et 2015 pourrait marquer un tournant pour les pays de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord (MENA). Beaucoup d’entre eux commenceront à profiter de la hausse de la demande extérieure des pays à revenu élevé, à la faveur de la reprise de l’économie mondiale attendue en 2014. Après un net ralentissement en 2013, le redressement économique des pays à revenu élevé devrait porter la croissance mondiale à 3,2 % en 2014, soit un accroissement de 0,8 point de pourcentage par rapport à 2013. La production mondiale devrait continuer d’augmenter en 2015 et le PIB réel devrait progresser à 3,4 %. Selon les estimations du Conseil mondial du voyage et du tourisme, les recettes touristiques augmenteront de 7 % dans la région MENA en 2015 par rapport à l’année précédente. Cela étant, la reprise de l’économie mondiale reste fragile et tous les risques ne sont pas écartés, notamment le maintien d’une inflation modeste dans les pays à revenu élevé - qui pourrait affaiblir la demande et retarder la reprise économique - et l’escalade du conflit en Ukraine. Les exportateurs de pétrole de la région, notamment les pays membres du CCG, seront les moteurs de la reprise régionale, avec des taux de croissance atteignant 3,5 % en 2014 et 4,8 % en 2015. L’économie des importateurs de pétrole comme l’Égypte, la Tunisie, le Liban et la Jordanie reste fragile mais ces pays devraient amorcer une légère reprise durant cette période. Néanmoins, les tensions politiques et sociales qui persistent demeurent un risque majeur, et vu le niveau élevé de la dette, conjugué au déficit de la balance courante et des finances publiques, ces économies restent vulnérables aux chocs exogènes.fr
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19335869/regional-economic-update-harnessing-global-recovery-tough-road-ahead
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/17789
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/17789
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMiddle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update;April 2014
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOMES
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICITS
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOPYRIGHT CLEARANCE
dc.subjectCOPYRIGHT CLEARANCE CENTER
dc.subjectCOUNTRY SPECIFIC
dc.subjectCREDIT GROWTH
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING REGIONS
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC SECURITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFLOW OF FUNDS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOSTER COMPETITION
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINTANGIBLE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLOW INFLATION
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICIES
dc.subjectNATURAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRICH COUNTRIES
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSECTOR ACTIVITY
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL PROBLEMS
dc.subjectSUBSIDIARY
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCK
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE GROWTH
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRANSITION COUNTRIES
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.titleHarnessing the Global Recovery, A Tough Road Aheaden
dc.titleTirer parti de la reprise de l’économie mondiale : Une route semée d’embûchesfr
dc.title.alternativeLe point sur la situation économique dans la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord : tirer parti de la reprise de l'économie mondiale - une route semée d'embûchesfr
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2014-04-08
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T08:43:55.848446Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19335869/regional-economic-update-harnessing-global-recovery-tough-road-ahead
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid740111468299330382
okr.guid773491468326145621
okr.guid816281468307478880
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000442464_20140403094643
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum19335869
okr.identifier.report86446
okr.language.supporteden
okr.language.supportedfr
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/04/03/000442464_20140403094643/Rendered/PDF/864460WP0REGIO0179B00PUBLIC00URGENT.pdfen
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/816281468307478880/pdf/864460WP0FRENC00Box385189B00PUBLIC0.pdffr
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.geographicalNorth Africa
okr.region.geographicalMiddle East
okr.topicBanks and Banking Reform
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.txturlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/816281468307478880/text/864460WP0FRENC00Box385189B00PUBLIC0.txtfr
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist (MNACE)
okr.volume1 of 1
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