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Kenya Economic Update, November 2020: Navigating the Pandemic

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-30T15:26:23Z
dc.date.available2020-11-30T15:26:23Z
dc.date.issued2020-11-24
dc.description.abstractKenya’s economy has been hit hard by COVID-19, severely affecting incomes and jobs. The economy has been exposed through the dampening effects on domestic activity of the containment measures and behavioral responses, and through trade and travel disruption (affecting key foreign currency earners such as tourism and cut flowers). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.4 percent in H1 2020 year-on-year(y/y), compared to growth of 5.4 percent in H1 of 2019. This reflects a worse-than-anticipated Q2 GDP outturn, mainly due to a sharp reduction of services sector output, especially education. As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 1.0 percent in 2020 in the baseline scenario, and by 1.5 percent in a more adverse scenario. This revision essentially adopts the adverse scenario outlined in the April 2020 update, reflecting the more severe impact of the pandemic to date than had been initially anticipated, including on the measured output of the education sector following the closure of institutions in March. The special focus topic finds that the pandemic increased poverty by 4 percentage points (or an additional 2 million poor) through serious impacts on livelihoods, by sharp decreases in incomes and employment. The unemployment rate increased sharply,approximately doubling to 10.4 percent in the second quarter as measured by the KNBS Quarterly Labor Force Survey. Many wage workers who are still employed face reduced working hours, with average hours decreasing from 50 to 38 hours per week. Almost 1 in 3 household runbusinesses are not currently operating, and between February and June average revenue from household run businesses decreased by almost 50 percent. This has exacerbated food insecurity, and elevated pain and human suffering. In response to the crisis, the government has deployed both fiscal and monetary policies to support the healthcare system, protect the most vulnerable households, and support firms to help preserve jobs,incomes and the economy’s productive potential. Tax revenue dropped below target, due to the marked slowdown in economic activity, as well as tax relief as part of the government’s fiscal response package. At the same time, expenditures were raised to strengthen the capacity of the healthcare system to manage infections, protect the most vulnerable households, and support businesses.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/957121606226133134/Kenya-Economic-Update-Navigating-the-Pandemic
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/34819
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/34819
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Nairobi
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC RECOVERY
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectPANDEMIC RESPONSE
dc.subjectFISCAL TRENDS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SECTOR
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectRISKS
dc.subjectHEALTHCARE SYSTEM
dc.subjectHEALTH SYSTEM REFORM
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS
dc.subjectFIRM LIQUIDITY
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.titleKenya Economic Update, November 2020en
dc.title.subtitleNavigating the Pandemicen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleKenya Economic Update, November 2020
okr.date.disclosure2020-11-25
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T09:09:18.080220Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/957121606226133134/Kenya-Economic-Update-Navigating-the-Pandemic
okr.guid957121606226133134
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08800d981_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32605087
okr.identifier.report154560
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/957121606226133134/pdf/Kenya-Economic-Update-Navigating-the-Pandemic.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.administrativeAfrica Eastern and Southern (AFE)
okr.region.countryKenya
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health Systems Development & Reform
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty and Health
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Employment and Unemployment
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice; Poverty and Equity Global Practice
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