Publication: South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery
Loading...
Date
2014-05
ISSN
Published
2014-05
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report covers economic developments, prospects, and policies in six South Eastern European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. South East Europe (SEE6)'s economy recovered from the 2012 recession, growing by 2.2 percent on average in 2013. Each of the SEE6 countries marked positive growth rates in 2013, with growth at or exceeding 3 percent in Kosovo, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro. External demand for SEE6 exports, especially by the European Union (EU), was the key driver of the recovery. On the production side, SEE6 drivers of growth were mixed, but in all countries a good agricultural year supported economic activity. An export-led recovery combined with depressed domestic demand resulted in a significant narrowing of current account imbalances in all SEE6 countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment financed most of the current account deficits in SEE6. Overall, SEE6 countries are having limited success in translating the economic recovery into job creation. SEE6 countries reduced their fiscal deficits to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2013 from 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012. The pace of fiscal adjustment and still nascent economic growth were insufficient to reverse public debt dynamics in SEE6. In a low-inflation environment, SEE6 central banks moderately loosened monetary policy. The financial sector remained broadly stable, albeit fragile, in the course of 2013. The SEE region is projected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2014 and 2.6 percent in 2015 on the back of external demand. The positive growth since mid-2013 and the still accommodative monetary conditions of the Euro Area are likely to continue help SEE6 exports to grow, despite notable risks related to the outlook for the Euro Area (related to the slow reform implementation and prolonged period of low inflation or risk of deflation).
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2014. South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19021 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2013 : A Fine Balance(Washington, DC, 2013-04-25)The developing economies of the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region grew by 7.5 percent in 2012, lower than the 8.3 percent growth recorded in 2011, but still higher than that of any other region. Within the region, available data in the first quarter of the year indicate that external weakness may be abating, while domestic demand remains resilient. The expectation of some stabilization in external demand, coupled with still resilient domestic activity, may be showing in the industrial production and purchasing manager's index numbers, which are generally positive. The growth forecasts for EAP for 2013 and 2014 remain roughly similar to those of December last year. Both the global and regional outlooks are subject to several risks, most of which are by now familiar. Though the developing economies of East Asia are generally well-prepared to absorb external shocks, an emerging concern is the risk of over-heating in some of the larger economies in the region. Policy makers in developing EAP should strive to strike the right balance between managing the near-term risks, and sustaining and increasing inclusive growth in the medium-term by enhancing the underlying productive capacity-human and physical-of these economies.Publication Kazakhstan : Short-Term Vulnerabilities, Positive Prospects(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03-31)This economic update is structured as follows: section A describes the recent economic developments, with a focus on emerged imbalances in the external accounts, which led to growing depreciation expectations and resulted in the one-off tenge devaluation in early 2014. Section B provides an overview of recent macroeconomic policies and the government's forward-looking vision of moving toward a diversified knowledge-based economy by improving the country's endowments. Section C outlines the medium-term economic prospects for Kazakhstan, which is expected to benefit from the global economic recovery, but face risks, both external and domestic. Section D discusses possible short- to medium-term impacts of the devaluation on the economy and suggests a set of policy measures to mitigate inflationary pressures.Publication From Tapering to Tightening : The Impact of the Fed's Exit on India(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-10)The "tapering talk" starting on May 22, 2013, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first spoke of the possibility of the U.S. central bank reducing its security purchases, had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. India was among those hardest hit. The rupee depreciated by 18 percent at one point, causing concerns that the country was heading toward a financial crisis. This paper contends that India was adversely impacted because it had received large capital flows in prior years and had large and liquid financial markets that were a convenient target for investors seeking to rebalance away from emerging markets. In addition, India's macroeconomic conditions had weakened in prior years, which rendered the economy vulnerable to capital outflows and limited the policy room for maneuver. The paper finds that the measures adopted to handle the impact of the tapering talk were not effective in stabilizing the financial markets and restoring confidence, implying that there may not be any easy choices when a country is caught in the midst of rebalancing of global portfolios. The authors suggest putting in place a medium-term policy framework that limits vulnerabilities in advance, while maximizing the policy space for responding to shocks. Elements of such a framework include a sound fiscal balance, sustainable current account deficit, and environment conducive to investment. In addition, India should continue to encourage relatively stable longer-term flows and discourage volatile short-term flows, hold a larger stock of reserves, avoid excessive appreciation of the exchange rate through interventions with the use of reserves and macroprudential policy, and prepare the banks and firms to handle greater exchange rate volatility.Publication Taking Stock, December 2010(World Bank, Hanoi, 2010-12)In the post-global economic crisis environment, Vietnam's economy continues to grow at a reasonably rapid and stable rate. While the speed of global economic recovery has been uneven across the world, Asia as a region has done particularly well. And within Asia, Vietnam's growth performance continues to be impressive. As shown in left panel of, Vietnam was one of the fastest growing economies in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region prior to the global economic crisis and has remained so in the post-crisis period as well1. After registering a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3 percent in 2009, Vietnam's economy is expected to grow between 6.5-6.7 percent in 2010. Vietnam, like China, stands out not only for achieving a higher average growth rate but also a more stable growth path. This however has meant that the speed with which the Vietnam's economy is bouncing back from the lows of 2009 appears to be less impressive than countries that experienced negative growth last year. This edition of 'Taking Stock' a semi-annual publication from the World Bank attempts to understand the recent macroeconomic changes in Vietnam. It documents changes to the macroeconomic outcomes and policies with a view to inform policy discussions in the country. The analysis is mostly retrospective in nature, though discussions on prospective challenges and outlook are also briefly mentioned. Developments in the global economy in general and in the EAP region in particular are juxtaposed against Vietnam's own economic outcomes and policies to provide a more complete and nuanced picture of the issues.Publication Nepal Development Update, October 2013(World Bank, Kathmandu, 2013-10)Nepal's political developments continue to overshadow and impede its economic development. Over the short term, whether the scheduled elections are held and, if so, whether they achieve a modicum of consensus will be a major test. Political instability clouded the outlook in FY2013 and remains the principal source of vulnerability going forward. While Nepal's macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, sources of vulnerability have not disappeared. Although the financial sector has rebuilt strength, it remains an important source of weakness. Important initiatives to improve the governance environment have been taken, but these initiatives can be amplified further. For FY2014, the baseline scenario is a gradual return to trend, with higher growth and sustainable fiscal expansion. While important psychologically and for some sectors of the economy, the recent depreciation of the Nepal rupee is not expected to hold back growth or to threaten macroeconomic stability. While a revision of the peg with India may eventually be warranted, the report agrees with Nepali policy makers that this is not the time when markets are unstable to move impulsively. Instead, such a major policy shift should be based on clear policy objectives and in-depth analysis of likely economic outcomes, including the long-term impact on Nepal's trade competitiveness. The report is structured as follows: chapter one gives summary; chapter two gives recent economic developments; chapter three gives policies and short- to medium-term development challenges; chapter four presents short and medium-term economic projections; chapter five focuses on bank support and activities; and chapter six presents special focus.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02)South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.