Publication: Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
Date
2014-05
ISSN
Published
2014-05
Author(s)
Abstract
The continued poverty impact of the
financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond
2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles
this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that
accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in
Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further
increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued
deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a
recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the
forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for
previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with
realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model
performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10
and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions
improves when the response of the social protection system
is accounted for.
Citation
“Cojocaru, Alexandru; Olivieri, Sergio. 2014. Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6889. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18797 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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