Publication: How Much Can CO2 Emissions Be Reduced If Fossil Fuel Subsidies Are Removed?
Loading...
Files in English
736 downloads
Date
2017-05
ISSN
0140-9883
Published
2017-05
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper analyzes consumers' price elasticities of demand for fossil fuels, and how a reduction of fossil fuel subsidies can lead to important reduction in CO2 emissions for various groups of countries that have relatively high fossil fuel subsidies and notably on diesel, including countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). These countries continue to maintain significant levels of fuel subsidies, with Iran and Saudi Arabia being the largest contributors to CO2 emissions. This paper illustrates that fuel price policy reforms by these countries would be an important instrument for both climate and economic policies. We estimate that a reduction in subsidies to both gasoline and diesel by about 20 US$ cents per liter will lead to significant decreases in CO2 emissions, both in the MENA region and globally. In Iran, for example, the reductions could be up to 90% and 50% of current emissions generated from diesel and gasoline consumption, respectively, and for Saudi Arabia, approximately 70% and 40%, respectively.
Link to Data Set
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
- Cited 77 times in Scopus (view citations)
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication United Mexican States Reducing Fuel Subsidies(Washington, DC, 2013-05)This paper analyzes the economic, distributional, and environmental impact that energy subsidy reductions and alternative compensating mechanisms might have in Mexico. To achieve that goal, author use a computable general equilibrium model of the Mexican economy. They make several important changes to the original model to build the energy subsidies (to gasoline, diesel, electricity and liquefied petroleum gas) into the benchmark and then do an array of simulations to see the effects of removing such subsidies. The report results for 2012, which is the initial year; 2018, which will be the end of the next administration; and 2024 and 2030, which represent the medium and long term, respectively. When doing the simulations, author look at possible compensation mechanisms and analyze the impact on the income groups that may be affected by the reduction of energy subsidies.Publication Tax Policy to Reduce Carbon Emissions in South Africa(2009-05-01)Noting that South Africa may be one of the few African countries that could contribute to mitigating climate change, the authors explore the impact of a carbon tax relative to alternative energy taxes on economic welfare. Using a disaggregate general-equilibrium model of the South African economy, they capture the structural characteristics of the energy sector, linking a supply mix that is heavily skewed toward coal to energy use by different sectors and hence their carbon content. The authors consider a "pure" carbon tax as well as various proxy taxes such as those on energy or energy-intensive sectors like transport and basic metals, all of which achieve the same level of carbon reduction. In general, the more targeted the tax to carbon emissions, the better the welfare results. If a carbon tax is feasible, it will have the least marginal cost of abatement by a substantial amount when compared to alternative tax instruments. If a carbon tax is not feasible, a sales tax on energy inputs is the next best option. Moreover, labor market distortions such as labor market segmentation or unemployment will likely dominate the welfare and equity implications of a carbon tax for South Africa. This being the case, if South Africa were able to remove some of the distortions in the labor market, the cost of carbon taxation would be negligible. In short, the discussion of carbon taxation in South Africa can focus on considerations other than the economic welfare costs, which are likely to be quite low.Publication Under What Conditions Does a Carbon Tax on Fossil Fuels Stimulate Biofuels?(2011-06-01)A carbon tax is an efficient economic instrument to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning. Its impacts on production of renewable energy depend on how it is designed -- particularly in the context of the penetration of biofuels into the energy supply mix for road transportation. Using a multi-sector, multi-country computable general equilibrium model, this study shows first that a carbon tax with the entire tax revenue recycled to households through a lump-sum transfer does not stimulate biofuel production significantly, even at relatively high tax rates. This reflects the high cost of carbon dioxide abatement through biofuels substitution, relative to other energy substitution alternatives; in addition, the carbon tax will have negative economy-wide consequences that reduce total demand for all fuels. A combined carbon tax and biofuel subsidy policy, where part of the carbon tax revenue is used to finance a biofuel subsidy, would significantly stimulate market penetration of biofuels. Although the carbon tax and biofuel subsidy policy would cause higher loss in global economic output compared with the carbon tax with lump sum revenue redistribution, the incremental output loss is relatively small.Publication An Analysis of Various Policy Instruments to Reduce Congestion, Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Beijing(2009-10-01)Using a nested multinomial logit model of car ownership and personal travel in Beijing circa 2005, this paper compares the effectiveness of different policy instruments to reduce traffic congestion and CO2 emissions. The study shows that a congestion toll is more efficient than a fuel tax in reducing traffic congestion, whereas a fuel tax is more effective as a policy instrument for reducing gasoline consumption and emissions. An improvement in car efficiency would also reduce congestion, fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions significantly; however, this policy benefits only richer households that own a car. Low-income households do better under the fuel tax policy than under the efficiency improvement and congestion toll policies. The congestion toll and fuel tax require the travel cost per mile to more than triple. The responsiveness of aggregate fuel and CO2 are, approximately, a 1 percent drop for each 10 percent rise in the money cost of a car trip.Publication Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions through Joint Implementation of Projects(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-06)Efficient reduction of carbon dioxide emissions requires coordination of international efforts. Approaches proposed include carbon taxes, emission quotas, and jointly implemented energy projects. To reduce emissions efficiently, requires equalizing the marginal costs of reduction between countries. The apparently large differentials between the costs of reducing emissions in industrial and developing countries, implies a great potential for lowering the costs of reducing emissions by focusing on projects in developing countries. Most proposals for joint implementation of energy projects emphasize installing more technically efficient capital equipment, to allow reductions in energy use for any given mix of input, and output. But such increases in efficiency are likely to have potentially important second-round impacts: 1) Lowering the relative effective price of specific energy products. 2) Lowering the price of energy relative to other inputs. 3) Lowering the price of energy-intensive products relative to other products. The author explores the consequences of these second-round impacts, and suggests ways to deal with them in practical joint-implementation projects. For example, the direct impact of reducing the effective price of a fuel is to increase consumption of that fuel. Generally, substitution effects also reduce the use of other fuels, and the emissions generated from them. If the fuel whose efficiency is being improved, is already the least emission-intensive, the combined impact of these price changes is less likely to be favorable, and may even increase emissions. In the example the author uses, increase in coal use efficiency was completely ineffective in reducing emissions, because it resulted in emission-intensive coal being substituted for less polluting oil and gas.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course provides the first comprehensive analysis of the pandemic’s toll on poverty in developing countries. It identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. Fiscal policies offset the impact of COVID-19 on poverty in many high-income countries, but those policies offset barely one quarter of the pandemic’s impact in low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries. Improving support to households as crises continue will require reorienting protective spending away from generally regressive and inefficient subsidies and toward a direct transfer support system—a first key priority. Reorienting fiscal spending toward supporting growth is a second key priority identified by the report. Some of the highest-value public spending often pays out decades later. Amid crises, it is difficult to protect such investments, but it is essential to do so. Finally, it is not enough just to spend wisely - when additional revenue does need to be mobilized, it must be done in a way that minimizes reductions in poor people’s incomes. The report highlights how exploring underused forms of progressive taxation and increasing the efficiency of tax collection can help in this regard. Poverty and Shared Prosperity is a biennial series that reports on global trends in poverty and shared prosperity. Each report also explores a central challenge to poverty reduction and boosting shared prosperity, assessing what works well and what does not in different settings. By bringing together the latest evidence, this corporate flagship report provides a foundation for informed advocacy around ending extreme poverty and improving the lives of the poorest in every country in the world. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/poverty-and-shared-prosperity.Publication World Development Report 2004(World Bank, 2003)Too often, services fail poor people in access, in quality, and in affordability. But the fact that there are striking examples where basic services such as water, sanitation, health, education, and electricity do work for poor people means that governments and citizens can do a better job of providing them. Learning from success and understanding the sources of failure, this year’s World Development Report, argues that services can be improved by putting poor people at the center of service provision. How? By enabling the poor to monitor and discipline service providers, by amplifying their voice in policymaking, and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor. Freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy are two of the most important ways poor people can escape from poverty. To achieve these goals, economic growth and financial resources are of course necessary, but they are not enough. The World Development Report provides a practical framework for making the services that contribute to human development work for poor people. With this framework, citizens, governments, and donors can take action and accelerate progress toward the common objective of poverty reduction, as specified in the Millennium Development Goals.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Addressing Food Loss and Waste(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09-28)The report focuses on the role that food loss and waste (FLW) could play in reducing the environmental footprint of food systems while attempting to meet the caloric and nutrient needs of a population expected to increase by 3 billion people in the next 30 years. The performance of the global food system over the last century has been extraordinary. From a global population of 1.6 billion people in 1900 to nearly 8 billion in 2020, the agri-food sector has risen to the challenge of providing global caloric sufficiency, mainly by increasing yields of a few principal staple crops. However, this path is no longer sustainable.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11)After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.