How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?

doi:10.1007/s10888-021-09510-w

Publication:
How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?

dc.contributor.author	Gerszon Mahler, Daniel
dc.contributor.author	Lakner, Christoph
dc.contributor.author	Negre, Mario
dc.contributor.author	Prydz, Espen Beer
dc.date.accessioned	2022-03-16T20:30:31Z
dc.date.available	2022-03-16T20:30:31Z
dc.date.issued	2022-03-02
dc.description.abstract	The goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and working towards a more equal distribution of incomes are part of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Using data from 166 countries comprising 97.5 percent of the world’s population, we simulate scenarios for global poverty from 2019 to 2030 under various assumptions about growth and inequality. We use different assumptions about growth incidence curves to model changes in inequality and rely on a machine-learning algorithm called model-based recursive partitioning to model how growth in GDP is passed through to growth as observed in household surveys. When holding within-country inequality unchanged and letting GDP per capita grow according to World Bank forecasts and historically observed growth rates, our simulations suggest that the number of extreme poor (living on less than 1.90 dollars/day) will remain above 600 million in 2030, resulting in a global extreme poverty rate of 7.4 percent. If the Gini index in each country decreases by 1 percent per year, the global poverty rate could reduce to around 6.3 percent in 2030, equivalent to 89 million fewer people living in extreme poverty. Reducing each country’s Gini index by 1 percent per year has a larger impact on global poverty than increasing each country’s annual growth 1 percentage point above forecasts. We also study the impact of COVID-19 on poverty and find that the pandemic may have driven around 60 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. If the pandemic increased the Gini index by 2 percent in all countries, then more than 90 million may have been driven into extreme poverty in 2020.	en
dc.identifier.citation	The Journal of Economic Inequality
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/37146
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/37146
dc.publisher	Springer Nature
dc.rights	CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/
dc.subject	POVERTY
dc.subject	INEQUALITY
dc.subject	INCLUSIVE GROWTH
dc.subject	COVID-19
dc.subject	SDGs
dc.subject	SIMULATION
dc.subject	MACHINE-LEARNING
dc.title	How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?	en
dc.type	Journal Article	en
dc.type	Article de journal	fr
dc.type	Artículo de revista	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.associatedcontent	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-021-09510-w Journal Article Version Record	en
okr.date.disclosure	2023-03-02
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-05-06T11:39:59.331301Z
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Journal Article
okr.externalcontent	External Content
okr.identifier.doi	10.1007/s10888-021-09510-w
okr.language.supported	en
okr.peerreview	Academic Peer Review
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Access of Poor to Social Services
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Living Standards
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Poverty Assessment
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Poverty Impact Evaluation
okr.unit	The World Bank
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	fe09a17f-1d05-5a36-808c-daa18418e7bb
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	fe09a17f-1d05-5a36-808c-daa18418e7bb