Publication: China and Central and Eastern European Countries : Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain or International Competitors?
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Date
2009
ISSN
1225651X
Published
2009
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China has become leading recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI). Meanwhile, an increasing share of global FDI is going to many Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). What is the relationship between inward FDI of China and the CEECs? We conceptualize the relationship according to three alternative paradigms: (1) China and the CEECs each exist in its own regional production network, with no linkage between FDI flows into China and into CEECs; (2) China and the CEECs together comprise a global production network, so that China's FDI is positively related to CEECs' FDI; and (3) FDI into China is a substitute for FDI into the CEECs, with the correlation being negative. In this paper, we study empirical estimates of this issue for 15 CEECs for 1990-2004 using four different econometric approaches: FGLS with Random effects, FGLS with fixed effects, EC2SLS and GMM. The result supports the conclusion that China's inward FDI does not crowd out CEECs' inward FDI. In fact, it shows that in some regressions FDI flows in these two regions are moderately complementary. Our analysis also confirms the importance for FDI flows of determinants such as market size, degree of trade liberalization, labor quality and a healthy global FDI supply.
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Publication China and Central and Eastern European Countries : Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain, or International Competitors?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-08)China has emerged as one of the top recipients of foreign direct investment in the world. Meanwhile, the successful transition experience of many Central and Eastern European countries has also allowed them to attract an increasing share of global foreign direct investment. In this paper, the authors use a panel data set to investigate whether foreign direct investment flows to these two regions are complements, substitutes, or independent of each other. Taking into account the role of host country characteristics - such as market size, degree of trade liberalization, and human capital - the authors find no evidence that foreign direct investment flows to one region are at the expense of those to the other. Instead, the results suggest that foreign direct investment flows are driven by distinct regional production networks (and thus are largely independent of each other) and the development of global supply chains (indicating that foreign direct investment flows are complementary).Publication Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment : China versus the Rest of the World(2009)Weak institutions impede foreign direction investment (FDI), yet China attracts massive FDI despite global media spotlighting its institutional infirmities. Standard institutional quality variables poorly track rapid transformations, like China's regime shift following Den Xiaoping's 1993 Southern Tour. Economy track record usefully augments these variables in such cases. Cross-country regressions controlling for institutional quality and economy track record reveal China's FDI inflow unexceptional. Rather, China's FDI inundation resembles analogous post-reform East Bloc events. Arguments that China's FDI inflow is inefficiently large because weak institutions deter domestic investment while special initiatives attract FDI are thus either unsupported or not unique to China.Publication Impact of Local Content Restrictions and Barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services : The Case of Kazakhstan's Accession to the World Trade Organization(2008)We employ a computable general equilibrium model of the Kazakh economy to assess the effect of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our model incorporates foreign direct investment by multinational business service providers and by multinational oil and gas companies; it contains endogenous productivity effects in both goods and services markets through a Dixit-Stiglitz (1977) framework. Our model is innovative in that we assess the effect of local content provisions for multinational oil and gas companies, provisions that are highly contentious in WTO accession negotiations. We show that our model features are crucial to the results, as the estimated gains are more than ten times larger than the gains from a constant return-to-scale model.Publication Understanding Bilateral FDI Flows in Developing Asia(2009)Unlike trade flows, there has been little to no detailed examination of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Asian economies. This paper uses bilateral FDI flows data to investigate trends in intra-Asian FDI flows over the period 1990-2005. It employs an augmented gravity model to identify the main determinants of intra-Asian FDI flows. Possible drivers of FDI flows, including transactional and informational distance (proxied by distance), real sector variables, financial variables, and quality of institutions are examined.Publication Substitution between Foreign Capital in China, India, the Rest of the World, and Latin America: Much Ado about Nothing?(2008)This paper explores the impact of the emergence of China and India on Foreign Capital Stocks (FCS) in other economies. Using bilateral FCS data from 1990-2003 and drawing from the Knowledge-Capital Model of multinational enterprises to control for fundamental determinants of FCS across countries, the evidence suggests that the impact of foreign capital in China and India on other countries' FCS has been positive. This finding is robust across different specifications and estimation techniques. There is surprisingly weak evidence of substitution in manufacturing FCS away from Central America/Mexico in favor of China, and from Southern Cone countries to India, but these findings are not robust to the use of alternative estimation techniques. In sum, fears of a global competition for FDI seem misplaced, and policymakers concerned about attracting foreign investors should focus their efforts on the fundamentals determinants of FDI.
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