Publication: Food Price Increases and Net Food Importing Countries : Lessons from the Recent Past
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Date
2008
ISSN
01695150
Published
2008
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Recent increases in food and other commodity prices have highlighted concerns that many poor countries are net food importers and higher food prices would worsen their trade balances. In this article, we analyze the changes in food trade balances associated with the 32% increase in food prices from 2000/2001 to 2004/2005. We find a small deterioration in food trade balances of low-income countries and an improvement in middle-income countries. The deterioration is most severe for countries in conflict and small island states, so attention should be placed first on these countries and on a few very-low-income countries that are also vulnerable. Because low-income countries as a group had much lower agricultural GDP growth rates than middle-income countries, the answers to food vulnerability in low-income countries should probably be addressed within the context of incentives for agricultural production.
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Publication A Note on Rice Production, Consumption and Import Data in Indonesia(2008)Debate about Indonesian rice policy has focused on estimates of production and consumption levels, and the level of imports they imply. However, Indonesian rice production and consumption data are controversial. Rice consumption as estimated from household survey data is much lower than officially reported rice production. This suggests that Indonesia is a net rice exporter, but in fact it has generally been a net importer. Some researchers argue that rice consumption data are underestimated; others contend that production is over-estimated because of inaccuracies in 'eye estimates' of harvested area. This paper reviews how rice production and consumption are measured, notes major weaknesses, and surveys attempts to reconcile consumption and production data and examine their consistency with rice import data. 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