Publication: Transition to a Low-Emissions Economy in Poland
Loading...
Published
2011-08
ISSN
Date
2012-08-13
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Poland is not among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases globally, but its economy is among the least emissions-efficient in the European Union (EU). Poland's global share in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is just 1percent and its per capita emissions are similar to the EU overall. Its lower income level, the Polish economy comes out as among the least carbon-efficient. Poland's transition to a market economy since 1989 had a co-benefit of sharply reduced CO2 emissions; however, the link between growth and emissions has re-emerged in recent years. A critical difference in the make-up of Poland's emissions is the dominance of the power sector and its extraordinary dependence on coal. Over 90 percent of electricity in Poland is generated from coal and lignite, the highest share in the EU. This makes Poland an outlier, both globally and in Europe.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Jorgensen, Erika; Kąsek, Leszek. 2011. Transition to a Low-Emissions Economy in Poland. Europe and Central Asia Knowledge Brief; Issue No. 42. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/10083 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Transition to a Low Carbon Economy in Poland(Washington, DC, 2011-10)Transition to a low carbon economy in Poland is a study by the World Bank for the Polish Government, supported by the UK Department for International Development and donors to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The study poses the question of how Poland, an European Union (EU) member state, an industrialized 'annex one' country for the purposes of international climate discussions, and an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member, can successfully transition to a low carbon economy as successfully as it underwent transition to a market economy in the early 1990s. Transition to a low carbon economy in Poland provides a detailed assessment of many aspects of a low carbon growth strategy for Poland, developing insights via a suite of models that should provide ongoing assistance to policymakers. These policymakers may find reassuring the main message that Poland's transition to a low carbon economy, while not free or simple is affordable. However, capturing the full package of technologically feasible and economically sensible abatement measures requires coordinated and early action by the government.Publication Transition to a Low-Emissions Economy in Poland(Washington, DC, 2011-02)Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change, individual countries are thinking through the implications of climate action for their economies and people. The rest of the report is organized along the following lines. The next section provides background on Poland's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Then section B sets out Poland's existing carbon abatement targets and key policy challenges related to GHG mitigation. The next section summarizes the innovative methodological approach used by the report. Section D discusses the methods and implications of constructing business-as-usual or reference scenarios. Section E provides the major findings from the first model, the engineering approach, on the costs of measures aimed at GHG mitigation for Poland. Section F explains how these findings are expanded and revised by incorporation into the first macroeconomic model. Section G provides an analysis of the economic impact through 2020 of mitigation measures within the constraints of European Union (EU) policy arrangements. Section H examines the energy sector and how Section E's findings are enhanced by optimization of the structure of the energy sector. Section I takes a first look at the challenges of energy efficiency. Section J provides additional analysis of the transport sector. The last section provides some notes on additional issues and further work.Publication Planning for a Low Carbon Future(Washington, DC, 2012-11-01)Developing countries are faced with the dual challenge of reducing poverty while improving management of natural capital and mitigating the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local pollutants. The challenge is particularly acute for large, rapidly growing economies, such as India, China, and Brazil. In response to this challenge, Energy Sector Management assistance Program (ESMAP) and the World Bank began in 2007 to provide support to countries to develop long term frameworks for reducing GHG emissions in a way that is compatible with economic growth objectives and tied to national and sectoral plans. In total, seven studies were conducted between 2007 and 2010, for the following countries: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, and South Africa. This report collates the lessons learned from these studies and is intended as a practical guide for government officials, practitioners, and development agencies involved in low carbon development planning. The low carbon studies were tailored to the individual needs of each country involved. In Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Poland the studies took the form of an economy-wide analysis of low carbon growth potential, employing a range of data and modeling tools. The governments of China and South Africa conducted their own analyses, but requested the assistance of ESMAP and the World Bank for peer review and to get international expertise on specific focus areas, such as energy efficiency and renewable energy. The combined outputs, and the modeling tools developed as part of the program, represent a significant contribution to international efforts on climate change mitigation and low carbon development.Publication Development of Low-Carbon Energy Supply System in Romania(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)Despite the declining trends in total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity, and emission intensity over the past two decades, Romania still emits more greenhouse gas per unit of output than many other members of the European Union. The country is looking for further greening of its energy supply system to achieve the clean energy and climate change mitigation goals included in the European Unions 2030 target and 2050 Roadmap. Using an energy supply optimization model, TIMES, this study develops energy supply mixes for Romania under a baseline scenario that satisfies the European Unions current energy and climate targets for 2020, a green scenario that satisfies the European Unions 2030 energy and climate targets, and a super green scenario that satisfies the European Unions prospective 2050 energy road map. The study finds that although Romania could achieve the green scenario at a moderate cost, it would be challenging and costly to achieve the super green scenario.Publication Climate Change and the Economics of Targeted Mitigation in Sectors with Long-Lived Capital Stock(2009-09-01)Mitigation investments in long-lived capital stock (LLKS) differ from other types of mitigation investments in that, once established, LLKS can lock-in a stream of emissions for extended periods of time. Moreover, historical examples from industrial countries suggest that investments in LLKS projects or networks tend to be lumpy, and tend to generate significant indirect and induced emissions besides direct emissions. Looking forward, urbanization and rapid economic growth suggest that similar decisions about LLKS are being or will soon be made in many developing countries. In their current form, carbon markets do not provide correct incentives for mitigation investments in LLKS because the constraint on carbon extends only to 2012, and does not extend to many developing countries. Targeted mitigation programs in regions and sectors in which LLKS is being built at rapid rate are thus necessary to avoid getting locked into highly carbon-intensive LLKS. Even if the carbon markets were extended (geographically, sectorally, and over time), public intervention would still be required, for three main reasons. First, to ensure that indirect and induced emissions associated with LLKS are taken into account in investor s financial cost-benefit analysis. Second, to facilitate project or network financing to bridge the gap between carbon revenues that accrue over time as the project/network unfolds and the capital needed upfront to finance lumpy investments. Third, to internalize other non-carbon externalities (e.g., local pollution) and/or to lift barriers (e.g., lack of capacity to handle new technologies) that penalize the low-carbon alternatives relative to the high-carbon ones.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Comoros Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18)The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.Publication Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22)Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.Publication Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.