Publication: Coping or Hoping?: Livelihood Diversification and Food Insecurity in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Loading...
Date
2025-01-07
ISSN
Published
2025-01-07
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of livelihood diversification on food insecurity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis uses household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in which the first round was collected immediately prior to the pandemic and extends through multiple rounds of monthly data collection during the pandemic. Using this pre- and post-outbreak data, and guided by a pre-analysis plan, the paper estimates the causal effect of livelihood diversification on food insecurity. The results do not support the hypothesis that livelihood diversification boosts household resilience. Although income diversification may serve as an effective coping mechanism for small-scale shocks, the findings show that for a disaster on the scale of the pandemic, this strategy is not effective. Policy makers looking to prepare for the increased occurrence of large-scale disasters will need to grapple with the fact that coping strategies that gave people hope in the past may fail them as they try to cope with the future.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Furbush, Ann M.; Josephson, Anna; Kilic, Talip; Michler, Jeffrey D.. 2025. Coping or Hoping?: Livelihood Diversification and Food Insecurity in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Policy Research Working Paper; 11014. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42631 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.Publication Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2025-04-04)This paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chains (GVC), crucial for informed policy-making. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two-sided) covering trade and production data. The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications over-estimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.Publication Participation in Pension Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-24)Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly but stagnation of growth in participation in pension programs, due to widespread informal employment, presents a major fiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design of pension program rules can encourage more pension contributions, while others push for universal non-contributory pensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literature on the determinants of active participation in pension systems in high- informality settings. An emerging body of evidence shows that participation responds significantly to financial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strategies to cover longevity risk, including support through the family, which will remain crucial for many older people in fiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makers should integrate the design of contributory pensions, social pensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderly support and consider how all three interact. To inform such efforts, these interactions must be more systematically investigated, and the empirical evidence must be expanded beyond a small number of middle-income countries.Publication Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-14)Property registries have long been a pillar of state capacity and a basis for private market activity. While registry establishment and operation traditionally were costly and time consuming, digital technology makes low-cost registry operation and wide outreach easier. To guide developing countries aiming to establish such registries and measure progress, this paper develops indicators (in terms of digital coverage, interoperability, and property taxation for local service delivery and public land management) of effective digital registry service provision. Data from 85 countries highlight vast differences and provide suggestions for strategic reforms as well as a basis for measuring progress over time. Expanding geographical coverage and collecting these indicators on a regular basis could provide guidance to improve the way in which, by protecting property, the state creates the basis for widely shared prosperity and a livable environment.Publication Bridging the Gap(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-21)This paper examines tax revenue shortfalls in South Asian countries. On average during 2019–23, South Asian revenues totaled 18 percent of GDP—well below the average 24 percent among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Econometric estimates from stochastic frontier analysis, which control for tax rates and the size of potential tax bases, suggest that tax revenues in the region are 1 to 7 percentage points of GDP below potential, with shortfalls in five of the region’s eight countries larger than in the average EMDE. Even after controlling for country characteristics, such as widespread informal economic activity outside the tax net and large agriculture sectors, sizable tax gaps remain, suggesting the need for improved tax policy and administration. The paper discusses and provides evidence from international experience with reforms to raise government revenues.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Evolving Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 in Four African Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)The paper provides evidence on the evolving socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic among households in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda. The data allow estimating the immediate economic impacts of the pandemic, beginning in April 2020, and tracking how the situation evolved through September 2020. Although households have started to see recovery in income, business revenues, and food security, the gains have been relatively modest. Additionally, households have received very little outside assistance and their ability to cope with shocks remains limited. School closures have created a vacuum in education delivery and school-aged children have struggled to receive education services remotely.Publication Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 in Four African Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11)The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the attempts to limit its spread have resulted in profound economic impacts, and a significant contraction in the global economy is expected. This paper provides some of the first evidence on the socioeconomic impacts of and responses to the pandemic among households and individuals in Sub-Saharan Africa. To do so, reduced-form econometric methods are applied to longitudinal household survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda -- originating from the pre-COVID-19 face-to-face household surveys and from the novel phone surveys that are being implemented during the pandemic. The headline findings are fourfold. First, although false beliefs about COVID-19 remain prevalent, government action to limit the spread of the disease is associated with greater individual knowledge of the disease and increased uptake of precautionary measures. Second, 256 million individuals -- 77 percent of the population in the four countries -- are estimated to live in households that have lost income due to the pandemic. Third, attempts to cope with this loss are exacerbated by the inability to access medicine and staple foods among 20 to 25 percent of the households in each country, and food insecurity is disproportionately borne by households that were already impoverished prior to the pandemic. Fourth, student-teacher contact has dropped from a pre-COVID-19 rate of 96 percent to just 17 percent among households with school-age children. These findings can help inform decisions by governments and international organizations on measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and reveal the need for continued monitoring.Publication The Mismeasure of Weather(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-08)The availability of weather data from remotely sensed Earth observation data has reduced the cost of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict economic outcomes and serve as an input in modeling crop yields for rainfed agriculture. The use of Earth observation data in econometric applications has only recently been met with critical assessment of the suitability and quality of these data in economics. This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in Earth observation data in the context of smallholder agricultural productivity. The paper shows that different Earth observation sources use different measurement methods. The findings are not robust to the choice of Earth observation dataset, and the outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. Thus, the paper suggests that researchers should exercise caution in using these data and include robustness checks that test alternative sources of Earth observation data.Publication Estimating the Impact of Weather on Agriculture(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in remote sensing weather data in the analysis of smallholder agricultural productivity. The analysis leverages 17 rounds of nationally-representative, panel household survey data from six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. These data are spatially linked with a range of geospatial weather data sources and related metrics. The paper provides systematic evidence on measurement error introduced by (1) different methods used to obfuscate the exact GPS coordinates of households, (2) different metrics used to quantify precipitation and temperature, and (3) different remote sensing measurement technologies. First, the analysis finds no discernible effect of measurement error introduced by different obfuscation methods. Second, it finds that simple weather metrics, such as total seasonal rainfall and mean daily temperature, outperform more complex metrics, such as deviations in rainfall from the long-run average or growing degree days, in a broad range of settings. Finally, the analysis finds substantial amounts of measurement error based on remote sensing products. In extreme cases, the data drawn from different remote sensing products result in opposite signs for coefficients on weather metrics, meaning that precipitation or temperature drawn from one product purportedly increases crop output while the same metrics drawn from a different product purportedly reduces crop output. The paper concludes with a set of six best practices for researchers looking to combine remote sensing weather data with socioeconomic survey data.Publication Coping with COVID-19 Shocks in Western Uganda(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-09)In Western Uganda, women farmers and their households were facing widespread agricultural and non-agricultural income shocks in September 2020, indicating a protracted crisis. To cope with these shocks, many households liquidated productive agricultural assets. Women who had higher decision-making power within the household before the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, appeared to cope better with post-outbreak shocks by engaging in more income-generating activities and having better food security in the household.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication São Tomé and Príncipe - Unpacking Migration Dynamics(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)São Tomé and Príncipe (STP), a lower-middle-income small island nation, is undergoing a significant wave of emigration, primarily driven by limited job opportunities and economic prospects, particularly among younger generations. This paper explores migration's drivers, dynamics, and impacts on the country’s economy and social fabric, drawing on a combination of primary and secondary data sources. These include local emigration records, the national social registry, the latest household budget survey, global estimates of migrant stocks and remittance flows, and focus group discussions with migrant families. The findings reveal that at least 18 percent of STP’s population now resides abroad, with numbers growing rapidly. Migration is increasingly dominated by young individuals moving to Portugal, attracted by shared linguistic and cultural ties and facilitated by a recent Community of Portuguese Language Countries mobility agreement. However, migration currently delivers limited economic benefits to STP, as remittances are low, irregular, and constrained by high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and migrants’ precarious employment abroad. Socially, migration may also disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional wellbeing. Policy recommendations include enhancing migrants’ employability, exploring bilateral migration partnerships, strengthening migration management systems, improving remittance services, and supporting families who remain in the country through social assistance.Publication The Mismeasure of Weather(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-08)The availability of weather data from remotely sensed Earth observation data has reduced the cost of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict economic outcomes and serve as an input in modeling crop yields for rainfed agriculture. The use of Earth observation data in econometric applications has only recently been met with critical assessment of the suitability and quality of these data in economics. This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in Earth observation data in the context of smallholder agricultural productivity. The paper shows that different Earth observation sources use different measurement methods. The findings are not robust to the choice of Earth observation dataset, and the outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. Thus, the paper suggests that researchers should exercise caution in using these data and include robustness checks that test alternative sources of Earth observation data.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication The Markets and Competition Policy Assessment Toolkit(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-09)The markets and competition policy assessment toolkit (MCPAT) is a guide for understanding how policy can positively shape markets and address market failures that ultimately affect micro- and macroeconomic development issues. The MCPAT aims to support policymakers, competition authorities, and development finance institutions in realizing the advantages of competitive and well-functioning markets by setting the right conditions for firms to improve their economic performance and for markets to allocate resources efficiently. Competitive and well-functioning markets do not just benefit consumers, - they benefit entire economies as they promote productivity, innovation, efficiency, and consumer choice. The goal is not simply to increase the number of firms in a market or to restrict market power but to create an environment where competition can thrive, firms can innovate, and markets can function optimally. The structure of this toolkit follows the steps to conduct an MCPAT analysis in a specific sector or market. Part I provides an overview of key concepts that set the basis for conducting the MCPAT analysis and covers the first step of the MCPAT. Part II focuses on diagnosing market issues. Part III is about how to fix markets.Publication Poverty and Equity Assessment for El Salvador 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-12)This report proposes an agenda for building on gains to re-accelerate poverty reduction among Salvadorans. The last World Bank Poverty Assessment for El Salvador, from 2015, proposed two key policy recommendations: (a) effective pro-poor spending and (b) reduction of crime and violence through better access to jobs and education. Nine years later, the authorities have managed to achieve a substantial reduction in crime and violence and have indicated an intent to build on such progress to establish a path toward an El Salvador where shared prosperity is achievable. In this report, we propose a three pillar structure to address poverty and inequality reduction: jobs, services, and social protection, with a cross-cutting set of primary conditions that articulates this structure.