Publication: Process-Tracing Methods in Program Evaluation
Loading...
Date
2025-05-15
ISSN
Published
2025-05-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Process tracing (PT) involves a detailed analysis of the processes that link interventions to outcomes. PT is particularly useful for evaluating interventions that are difficult to quantify, such as knowledge work or institution building. It involves creating a detailed causal theory, tracking the process theory of change (pToC) by examining the observable evidence, and learning general lessons from the cases studied. PT offers two main benefits to evaluators: first, it provides a clear way to present and evaluate the strength of the evidence collected. This helps in making the evaluation process more understandable and credible. Second, it helps evaluators learn practical lessons more easily by emphasizing the explicit connections between actors, their actions, and resulting behavioral changes. However, the reliability of findings from PT depends on how well the theory matches the observable evidence. This paper explains how process tracing (PT) is a valuable tool for evaluating policy changes and program effectiveness. It details the methodology, highlights the importance of tracking processes and events linking interventions to results, and discusses PT's advantages and limitations. The paper provides a step-by-step implementation guide and examines the use of PT in an anonymized IEG evaluation as an example.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Beach, Derek; Raimondo, Estelle. 2025. Process-Tracing Methods in Program Evaluation. IEG Methods and Evaluation Capacity Development Working Paper Series. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43193 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication What Difference Does Good Monitoring and Evaluation Make to World Bank Project Performance?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)For more than 20 years, the development community has claimed that monitoring and evaluation helps projects achieve their objectives. This study uses data from 1,300 World Bank projects evaluated between 2008 and 2014 to investigate this suggested link between the quality of monitoring and evaluation and project performance. The propensity score matching results indicate that the quality of monitoring and evaluation is significantly and positively associated with project outcome as institutionally measured at the World Bank. This positive relationship holds when controlling for project manager identity, and is robust to various specification choices. Through a systematic text analysis of the narrative produced by the Independent Evaluation Group to justify its monitoring and evaluation quality rating, the study shows that there are common markers of good quality monitoring and evaluation, such as: clear institutional setup and division of labor around monitoring and evaluation activities; simple monitoring and evaluation framework that is well aligned with clients' existing monitoring and evaluation systems; good integration with operational tasks; and a system that can generate regular and timely reporting, and that is used during and after lending.Publication Ex Ante Economic Analysis in AKIS Projects : Methods and Guidelines for Good Practice(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-03-01)This note outlines an approach to economic analysis in agricultural research and extension (R&E) projects financed under World Bank loans and credits. It provides guidelines and recommends steps to take during project preparation and implementation. 1) agricultural research investments should be evaluated at the level of research programs for important commodities or production systems. 2) agricultural extension investments are often best evaluated using rough measures of cost-effectiveness or unit costs. 3) alternatively, break-even analyses can be conducted for extension programs to show the minimum impact needed to justify proposed expenditures. 4) during project preparation, economic analyzes should focus on retrospective technology adoption and impact studies, and prospective technology case studies . 5) during project implementation, the emphasis should be on establishing systems that incorporate economic analysis on an ongoing basis into R&E evaluation, planning, and priority setting. 6) evaluators within the national agricultural research system should conduct the economic analyzes whenever possible to build local capacity and foster local ownership of the results. 7) all economic analyzes should use the economic surplus method or a simplification thereof, such as a cost-benefit analysis.Publication Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation : Methods and Tools for Poverty and Inequality Reduction Programs(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)As the author enter the second decade of the twenty-first century, governments, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), philanthropic organizations, and civil society groups worldwide are actively focusing on evidence-based policy and increased accountability to stakeholders (results agenda).The widespread implementation of the Results Agenda has generated a plethora of books, guides, academic papers, trainings, and case studies, which has enabled an ongoing maturation process in the field. Consequently, specialists are now better equipped to understand what works under which circumstances. Broadly speaking there are two interrelated questions which must be answered when assessing the sustainability of a government results agenda. First, is the institutional design and practice of government conducive to evidence-based policy making? Second, are the overarching monitoring and evaluation (M&E) methods and specific tools used appropriate for garnering the evidence demanded by government? These series of notes aim to make a small contribution to the latter question by summarizing and highlighting a selection of PM&E methods and the tools that governments and international organizations around the world have developed to put these into practice in their own contexts. The central goal of this initiative is to prompt a process of learning, reflection and action by providing practical information to those whose leadership role requires them to understand PM&E methods and their potential for enhancing evidence-based policy making.Publication A Toolkit for the Evaluation of Financial Capability Programs in Low-, and Middle-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013)When resources are scarce and social safety nets are weak, households' ability to manage income and assets wisely may be an important determinant of economic security. However, many open questions remain about how households in low and middle-income countries gain and exercise financial capability, and the best ways for governments and the private and nonprofit sector to help increase this capability. With the exception of a small but important number of studies that have recently been completed or are currently under way, robust evidence regarding the efficacy of financial capability interventions is relatively sparse compared to the level of interest and programmatic activity. One reason for this is a lack of systematic evaluation. The toolkit draws from past experience and the experience of the Russia Financial Literacy and Education Trust Fund pilot projects to provide concrete and tangible examples for the reader that illustrate the specific circumstances and challenges in this field. This toolkit is designed for researchers who are interested in conducting an evaluation of a financial capability program and for policy makers and practitioners interested in commissioning an evaluation. It will also be useful to evaluation researchers who want to brush up on a research technique they are less familiar with or who are new to the area of financial capability and financial education, particularly in Low, and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). This toolkit is intended to be a practical, hands-on guide to designing, conducting, and analyzing financial capability evaluations, with a focus on doing so in LMICs. The toolkit covers a wide range of material on how to design, conduct and analyze evaluations, material that is spread out over the 13 chapters that follow. The chapters are contained within four overarching parts: setting the stage for monitoring and evaluation (M&E): understanding the M&E process and concepts (chapters 2-3); conducting M&E for financial capability programs (chapters 4-7); collecting and analyzing M&E Data for Financial Capability Programs (chapters 8-10); and other Issues in conducting M&E for financial capability programs (chapters 11-14).Publication The Private Sector and Youth Skills and Employment Programs in Low and Middle-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015)Getting youth into productive employment is an urgent policy issue for countries around the world. Many governments in low and middle-income countries are actively engaged in policies to help youth attain the skills they need to do well in work and in life, as well as to find suitable employment. The involvement of the private sector in youth skills development and employment is a complex issue because the nature of the firms and their motivations vary significantly. Multinational corporations operating in low and middle-income countries may be motivated by direct productivity or profit objectives - to secure a skilled workforce, or reliable suppliers - but also, or even primarily, by corporate social responsibility (CSR) factors. Firms that supply training or employment services will be driven by profit considerations when entering these markets and deciding what services to offer and to whom. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (1) to provide a comprehensive look at the way the private sector is involved in youth skills and employment in low- and middle-income countries, considering the broad range of program types and firm types; (2) to present and interpret the available evidence of the effectiveness of this involvement; and (3) to understand where the private sector has been most effective at promoting young people’s labor market success, and what can be done to enhance the role of the private sector to achieve this objective. The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides background to the analysis of the private sector role in youth employment in low- and middle-income countries. In chapter three the authors characterize the private sector’s role more systematically using the youth employment inventory, a global database of interventions that are designed to integrate young people into the labor market. Chapter four reviews the evidence of effectiveness of youth interventions involving the private sector. Chapter five briefly draws together strands from the previous review, as well as from the broader literature, to gain an understanding of the institutional and other factors leading to (and in other cases preventing) successful public-private partnerships for youth employment. Chapter six summarizes the main findings of this review, and is followed by a discussion of key gaps in knowledge on the role of the private sector in different types of youth employment intervention that future research should attempt to address, and a review of the main lessons for policy and programming emerging from the study.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
No results found.