Publication: Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
Date
2019-08
ISSN
Published
2019-08
Author(s)
World Bank
International Monetary Fund
Abstract
This report presents the first official
debt sustainability analysis undertaken for Somalia. Based
on both external and public debt indicators, Somalia is in
debt distress. Total public debt is very high, at dollar 4.8
billion, or 101 percent of GDP at end-2018—nearly all of
which is external (100 percent of GDP). The finding that
Somalia is in debt distress reflects the high external
arrears on debt relative to GDP, which now represent 96
percent of the debt stock. While Somalia has no capacity to
access new financing, its debt burden will continue to
increase as late interest on arrears continues to
accumulate. Under broadly steady state assumptions,
Somalia’s total public debt is expected to increase to
around 128 percent of GDP by 2039. Key risks that affect the
outlook include external financing, security, and climate,
further highlighting the unsustainability of Somalia’s
current debt burden. Consequently, in the absence of debt
relief, Somalia will remain in debt distress.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank; International Monetary Fund. 2019. Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32582 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”