Publication: Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
Loading...
Published
2019-08
ISSN
Date
2019-10-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report presents the first official debt sustainability analysis undertaken for Somalia. Based on both external and public debt indicators, Somalia is in debt distress. Total public debt is very high, at dollar 4.8 billion, or 101 percent of GDP at end-2018—nearly all of which is external (100 percent of GDP). The finding that Somalia is in debt distress reflects the high external arrears on debt relative to GDP, which now represent 96 percent of the debt stock. While Somalia has no capacity to access new financing, its debt burden will continue to increase as late interest on arrears continues to accumulate. Under broadly steady state assumptions, Somalia’s total public debt is expected to increase to around 128 percent of GDP by 2039. Key risks that affect the outlook include external financing, security, and climate, further highlighting the unsustainability of Somalia’s current debt burden. Consequently, in the absence of debt relief, Somalia will remain in debt distress.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank; International Monetary Fund. 2019. Somalia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32582 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)The joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2019 Article IV Consultation, for the first time based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real GDP and exports growth and the depreciation of the KGS. To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine will close in 2026.Publication The Gambia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05)An updated DSA indicates that The Gambia is in external debt distress, though its public debt is deemed sustainable on a forward-looking basis. The external debt service-to-exports and -to-revenue ratios breach their indicative thresholds by large margins in the near term and signal major liquidity pressures. However, once these pressures are addressed by the prospective debt relief and the authorities’ fiscal consolidation and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform program, the PV of total public debt would be brought below its threshold over the medium term. On the upside, debt relief discussions with external creditors are progressing and could unlock additional budget support. Downside risks mainly relate to the political environment and fiscal discipline, the unravelling of which could destabilize the economy and worsen the outlook for public debt.Publication The Democratic Republic of the Congo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09)According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)’s debt-carrying capacity was assessed as weak. DRC remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. The debt coverage has been improved since the last DSA, especially on domestic debt. The external nominal debt ratios are lower than at the time of the 2015 debt sustainability analysis (DSA), however the country shows vulnerability in debt repayment capacity, even under the baseline, due to weak revenue mobilization. Most external debt thresholds are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to external shocks. Given limited buffers, prudent borrowing policies are essential by prioritizing concessional loans and strengthening debt management policiesPublication Cabo Verde - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)Cabo Verde’s risk of external and overall debt distress is rated “high” as in the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA). The present value (PV) of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold in 2019-2022 under the baseline and protractedly under stress test scenarios. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to recede below its threshold from 2026 under the baseline and breaches its prescribed limit under stress test scenarios. The debt sustainability assessment is predicated on sustained fiscal consolidation and successful restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Prudent borrowing policies and a strengthened debt management strategy are critical to containing debt accumulation. In view of Cabo Verde’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks, growth-enhancing structural reforms remain critical to bringing public debt to sustainable levels.Publication Benin - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)Benin remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. The rating is unchanged from the previous November 2018 DSA. All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline, but the ratio of the present value (PV) of external debt to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports.1 With regard to total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (external plus domestic), the overall risk of debt distress remains also moderate. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is below its prudent benchmark in the baseline scenario; however, the PV of public debt-to-GDP rises very slightly above its benchmark from 2024 until the end of the projection period under the real GDP shock scenario. Other factors motivating the overall rating include: the past evolution of domestic debt, the relatively high debt service burden, as well as the existence of contingent liabilities. Medium-term fiscal consolidation, sound public investment management, and enhanced debt management capacity are needed to reduce debt vulnerabilities.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The World Bank Group in Tanzania, Fiscal Years 2012–22(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22)This evaluation assesses the relevance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group's support to Tanzania between Fiscal Years 2012 and 2022. Over the past decade, Tanzania has experienced resilient growth, with an average annual per capita GDP increase of 2.2%. However, poverty remains widespread and slow to decline, underscoring the need for more inclusive growth. The report examines the Bank Group's strategic and operational approaches during this period, which were aligned with Tanzania's development priorities and focused on industrialization, human development, and public sector reforms. The evaluation includes thematic chapters on the Bank Group's support for private sector-led growth and spatial transformation, as well as lessons to inform future support to the country.Publication FY 2025 China Country Opinion Survey Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-04)The Country Opinion Survey in China assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in China perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in China on 1) their views regarding the general environment in China; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in China; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in China; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in China.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication World Bank Annual Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25)This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.Publication The World Bank Group in Georgia, 2014-23(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-30)This Country Program Evaluation assesses the performance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group’s support to Georgia in achieving the country’s development objectives. In the decade leading up to the evaluation period, Georgia pursued economic reforms to attract critical investments for becoming a regional trade and transport hub. Ambitious economic reforms went hand in hand with efforts to improve human development and strengthening social protection systems. Growing geopolitical tensions and internal political polarization have challenged Georgia’s reform progress in recent years. The Bank Group’s strategy adapted well to Georgia’s development needs and was well coordinated with other development partners. It successfully employed a range of instruments to help increase competitiveness, growth, and job creation, and effectively contributed to improved infrastructure and increased trade by using programmatic and innovative approaches. The Bank Group’s regular investments in analytical work and the switch to results-based programmatic support helped improve the efficiency and effectiveness of education and health care systems. The IEG offers the following lessons based on the evidence and analysis in the Country Program Evaluation: (i) Prioritizing Bank Group support around the move towards deeper regional integration was an effective anchor for key economic reforms for economic convergence. (ii) Pursuing a selective and adaptive approach in a country with high implementation capacity and institutions, strong coordination among development partners, and access to a wide range of external resources can allow the Bank Group to exercise significant influence in areas of comparative advantage and global expertise. (iii) A stronger focus on outcome-based programmatic approaches helped to build local capacity and crowd-in partner financing.