Publication: What Are the Poverty and Inequality Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Turkey?
Loading...
Published
2020-06
ISSN
Date
2020-06-25
Editor(s)
Abstract
Fiscal policy is central to not only macroeconomic stability and growth, but also to poverty and inequality reduction. This paper provides the most comprehensive assessment of the distributional incidence of Turkey’s fiscal policy to date. It analyzes the combined and individual incidence of direct and indirect taxes, transfers, and social spending and benchmarks Turkey’s achievements against peer countries. The results show that fiscal policy significantly reduces income inequality in Turkey, driven by social spending on education and health, and complemented by direct taxes and transfer schemes that countervail the inequality-increasing impact of indirect taxes. At the bottom of the income distribution, targeted transfers are insufficient to compensate for the effect of taxes, resulting in net increases in poverty. In the context of upper-middle-income countries, Turkey’s performance is below the median. This is driven by the relatively larger negative impacts of indirect taxes and the more limited positive impacts of direct transfers and taxes. From a policy perspective, the paper contributes to identifying entry points for improving the equity impact of the fiscal package. Among these, targeting the minimum subsistence allowance (AGI) program toward the poor could be an efficient way forward. More broadly, the study represents a platform to simulate the distributional implications of a variety of fiscal changes to inform stakeholders and the policy debate.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Cuevas, P. Facundo; Lucchetti, Leonardo; Nebiler, Metin. 2020. What Are the Poverty and Inequality Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Turkey?. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9300. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33995 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Geopolitical Risks and Trade(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in South Africa(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-02)This paper uses the 2010/11 Income and Expenditure Survey for South Africa to analyze the progressivity of the main tax and social spending programs and quantify their impact on poverty and inequality. The paper also assesses the redistributive effectiveness of fiscal interventions given the resources used. Because it applies the Commitment to Equity methodology, the results for South Africa can be compared with other middle-income countries for which the framework has also been applied. The main results are twofold. First, the burden of taxes -- namely the personal income tax, the value added tax, excises on alcohol and tobacco, and the fuel levy -- falls on the richest in South Africa and social spending results in sizable increases in the incomes of the poor. In other words, for the components examined, the tax and social spending system is overall progressive. Second, for these elements, fiscal policy in South Africa achieves appreciable reductions in income inequality and poverty. Moreover, these reductions are the largest achieved in the emerging market countries that have so far been included in the Commitment to Equity project. Although fiscal policy is equalizing and poverty-reducing, the levels of inequality and poverty that remain still rank among the highest in middle-income countries. Looking ahead, as South Africa grapples with slow economic growth, a high fiscal deficit, and a rising debt burden, addressing the twin challenges of high inequality and poverty will require not only much improved quality of public services, but also higher and more inclusive economic growth.Publication Inequality Stagnation in Latin America in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-12)Over the past decade (2003-12), Latin America has experienced strong income growth and a notable reduction in income inequality, with the region's Gini coefficient falling from 55.6 to 51.8. Previous studies have warned about the sustainability of such a decline, and this paper presents evidence of stagnation in the pace of reduction of income inequality in Latin America since 2010. This phenomenon of stagnation is robust to different measures of inequality and is largely attributable to the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Mexico and Central America, where inequality rose after 2010 as labor income recovered. Moreover, this paper finds evidence that much of the continuation of inequality reduction after the crisis at the country level has been due to negative or zero income growth for households in the top of the income distribution, and lower growth of the incomes of the poorest households. The crisis also highlighted weaknesses in the region's labor markets and the heavy reliance on public transfers to redistribute, underscoring the vulnerability of the region's recent social gains to global economic conditions.Publication Jamaica : Poverty and Social Impacts of Fiscal Reforms(Washington, DC, 2012)This Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) explores the distributional effects of a package of fiscal reforms initiated by the Government of Jamaica and supported by the World Bank under the programmatic fiscal sustainability Development Policy Loan (DPL) series. The DPL series supports improved budget and debt management in order to reduce the debt overhang and create additional fiscal space for productive public spending, including social expenditures. The PSIA discusses the poverty and distributional impacts of the prior actions supported under the DPL, with a particular focus on two reform actions likely to have the most significant impacts: (1) tax reform and (2) public sector reform, focusing on rationalization of public bodies. The report offers both quantitative and qualitative assessments of the potential poverty and distributional effects of these policy changes. The report is structured as follows: section two analyzes the expected impact of changes in tax policy; section three investigates the potential impacts of public bodies' rationalization, and section four offers some caveats and concluding remarks. Each section begins with a discussion of the reform background as well as the major supporters and opponents of the reform. The analysis in each section is presented with the least possible amount of technical details in order to maximize the appeal to a broader audience. For the interested reader, the methodological details of the empirical approaches employed in this report are contained in the annexes.Publication Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty and Inequality in Uganda(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10)This study analyzes the incidence of public revenues (tax collection) and expenditures (including direct and indirect transfers, indirect subsidies, and in-kind transfers) on the level of poverty and inequality in Uganda, using the internationally recognized methodology developed by the Commitment to Equity institute. The results show that Uganda's fiscal policy is moderately equalizing and lowers the Gini coefficient by 3.2 points. The personal income tax, followed by education in-kind transfers, are the biggest contributors to reducing inequality. Although equalizing, fiscal policy is poverty-inducing in Uganda. Direct transfers are pro-poor in distribution but are not large enough to counteract the purchasing power reductions from indirect taxes; the poverty headcount ratio increases by 2.3 percentage points. Going forward, the combination of raising additional revenue by broadening the personal income tax base and removing valued-added tax exemptions while using the additional resources to increase the size and coverage of pro-poor direct transfers programs may alleviate poverty and reduce inequality.Publication Fiscal Policy in Colombia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012)Colombia has the seventh highest Gini coefficient of income inequality in the world. The Santos Administration is aware of this challenge and has taken important steps to reduce disparities. The Government is also aspiring to join the OECD, which exhibits much lower income disparities, mainly as a result of effective policies of fiscal redistribution. In Colombia, meanwhile, direct taxes, indirect taxes, and monetary transfers hardly dent the high Gini coefficient. To reduce income inequality, Colombian policy makers could consider introducing a more progressive tax-transfer system. This paper ranks alternative inequality-reducing fiscal policy options based on their effectiveness. It argues that there are potentially important redistributive potential gains available from tax reforms if combined with good spending decisions. It presents an illustrative reform package that would be sufficient for Colombia to reach levels of inequality similar to Chile or Costa Rica in a fiscally neutral manner. Nonetheless, further analysis is needed to explore all available policy options and identify those that are best suited for Colombia.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Evolution of the World Bank’s Thinking on Governance(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01)The preparation work for the 2017 World Development Report on Governance and the Law in 2016 will coincide with the 25th anniversary of the World Bank’s decision to broaden its ongoing work on public sector management to embrace key issues of governance in the Bank’s borrowing countries. This paper provides a broad overview of the major Bank reports on governance that went through a review process at a sufficiently high level in the institution that they can reasonably be described as reflecting the Bank’s considered views at the time on the subject. The objective is to review the evolution of the Bank’s thinking on governance and assess the relevance and effectiveness of the work and its implications for the forthcoming World Development Report. Section two of this paper begins with a brief account of how the Bank came to focus on issues of governance, reviewing the major upheaval of governance in many of the Bank’s borrowing countries in the 1980s, the legal constraints the Articles of Agreement impose on the Bank’s work on governance, and a brief overview of the Bank’s initial policy statement on governance issued to the Bank’s Board in June 1991. Section three reviews major Bank work on governance as reflected in successive World Development Reports and examines the Bank’s analysis of the issue of corruption, reviewing how the Bank’s thinking on this symptom of poor governance has evolved. Section four steps back to assess what the Bank got right and some of the issues it missed or failed to address adequately. Section five draws attention to the dramatic changes experienced by the developing world in these past 25 years, and points to the need to better understand the implications of these changes for the governance context facing developing countries.Publication Economic Governance Improvements and Sovereign Financing Costs in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)Low- and middle-income country governments are increasingly tapping the global debt capital markets. This is increasing the amount of finance available for development, but at a considerably higher cost than traditional external borrowing on concessional terms. Using a novel methodology based on estimating sovereign credit ratings using the Moody’s scorecard, and examining the associations between these ratings and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment scores, this paper examines how making improvements in the quality of economic policies and institutions can help lower governments’ financing costs. This method aims to overcome the small-sample problem due to the number of rated developing country sovereigns still being relatively limited (although growing). Better economic governance Country Policy and Institutional Assessment scores are associated with better estimated ratings and materially lower financing costs; on average, improvements that are sufficient to increase the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment economic governance indicator score by one point are associated with interest costs that are lower by about 40 basis points, even setting aside the direct impact on ratings of better governance indicators. There are many reasons why improving governance is a good thing. Among them is the potential payoff to the public purse — savings of $40 million or more on a standard $1 billion, 10-year bond.Publication Data Transparency and Growth in Developing Economies during and after the Global Financial Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The study explores the effects of data transparency on economic growth for developing economies over a unique time period—at the onset of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and thereafter. Data transparency is defined as the timely production of credible statistics as measured by the Statistical Capacity Indicator. The paper finds that data transparency has a positive effect on real gross domestic product per capita during a period of considerable uncertainty. The estimates indicate an elasticity of the magnitude of 0.03 percent per year, which is much larger than the elasticity of trade openness and schooling in the estimation sample. The empirics employ a variety of econometric estimators, including dynamic panel and cross-sectional instrumental variables estimators, with the latter approach yielding a higher estimated elasticity. The findings are robust to the inclusion of several factors in addition to political institutions and exogenous commodity-price and external debt-financing shocks.Publication Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21st Century(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-04)What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent.Publication Statistical Performance Indicators and Index(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)The World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index has been widely employed to measure country statistical capacity since its inception two decades ago. This paper builds on the existing advantages of the Statistical Capacity Index, conceptually and empirically, to offer new statistical performance indicators and the Statistical Performance Index, which can better measure a country’s statistical performance. The new index has clearer conceptual motivations, employs a stronger mathematical foundation, and significantly expands the number of indicators and countries covered. The paper further provides empirical evidence that illustrates the strong correlation of the new index with other commonly used development indicators of human capital, governance, poverty, and inequality. The framework can accommodate future directions to improve the index as the global data landscape evolves