Publication: Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 12, Fall 2017: Job Creation Picks Up
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2017-11-16
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2017-11-16
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This is a semi-annual report series on recent economic developments and economic policies in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia). The report looks at the economic performance and outlook for the Western Balkans region and specific factors that affect the growth prospects.
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“World Bank Group. 2017. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 12, Fall 2017: Job Creation Picks Up. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28883 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 16, Fall 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10-01)Improving the efficiency and equity of public spending and strengthening revenue mobilization remains a priority in all Western Balkan countries. Public sector wage bills and pensions constitute the largest share of public spending in the region. Tighter controls on wage bills, reducing tax expenditures, and better targeting of social benefits would open space for more public investment, improve equity, and enable the build-up of fiscal buffers to mitigate rising risks. As outlined in this report, fiscal rules can help anchor spending and fiscal sustainability. However, their credibility in the region needs to be restored after they have been repeatedly breached in some countries. Fiscal management reforms are needed as a part of broader structural reforms that help increase the region's export competitiveness. 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Policy efforts in the region need to remain focused on fighting the pandemic, limiting the economic damage and facilitating recovery.Publication South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 8, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09)Economic activity in the six South East European countries (SEE6) is picking up speed, and growth in the region is expected to average 1.8 percent for 2015. The highest growth rates projected are 3.4 percent for Montenegro and 3.2 percent for FYR Macedonia; the lowest is Serbia’s 0.5 percent. Although they trail the rest of the SEE6 region, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which were hit heavily by floods in mid-2014, are recovering faster than expected. As 2015 progresses, a recovery in domestic demand is stimulating economic growth throughout the region. Private investment has become the main driver of growth. Developments in the global economy have also helped, especially lower oil prices and a pick-up in demand in the European Union (EU), a major market for the region.Publication Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04-10)GDP growth in the Western Balkans slowed from 3.1 percent in 2016 to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2017. Regional growth in 2017 is less optimistic than the 2.6 percent expected when the Fall issue of this report was published. It slowed in Serbia due to a harsh winter and stalled in FYR Macedonia, where the political crisis deterred both public and private investment. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) grew at a rate like the last two years. The dynamism of the smaller economies of Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro drove regional growth in 2017, with support from higher growth in trading partners, a pickup in commodity prices, and the execution of large investment projects. Bold structural reforms are necessary if the region is to grow sustainably over the medium term. Regional GDP growth is projected to rise from 2.4 percent in 2017 to 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2019. Countries are expected to grow faster, pushed up by projected stronger growth in Europe, except for Albania, where moderation is expected as large investment projects are completed, and Montenegro, which is expected to undergo a much-needed fiscal consolidation. Among risks to the outlook are trade protectionism, normalization of interest rates globally, and low potential growth and uncertainty about domestic policy or policy reversals. These risks can be mitigated by rationalizing spending to build fiscal space for growth-enhancing reforms, and by a more strategic approach to boost competitiveness. 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While the report covers the European Union, it provides additional information on European countries which had historically a stronger operational engagement with the World Bank Group, in particular, Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Romania. The focus note of this RER covers “Welfare States and the Protection of the Poor in the European Union”.
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And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. 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Just as the post-COVID recovery of 2021 began to fade and the region returned to a normalized rate of economic growth, the Western Balkan region now faces a new combination of challenges. The war in Ukraine, and the resultant sharp increase and energy prices and slowdown in global growth, is weighing on economic performance in all six economies. Higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation to levels unseen for many years, eroding purchasing power and business confidence. Monetary tightening in advanced economies is pushing up financing costs and weakening external demand. Following a strong rebound in 2021, growth, although still robust, was on a decelerating path in the first half of 2022. In Q1 of 2022, the Western Balkan economies remained resilient overall, supported by sizable policy actions at the EU, euro area, and national levels. First-quarter growth was particularly strong in tourism-based economies and in Serbia. 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