Publication:
Political Violence and Underdevelopment

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dc.contributor.authorBodea, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorElbadawi, Ibrahim A.
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-30T07:32:47Z
dc.date.available2012-03-30T07:32:47Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyses the economic growth impact of organised political violence. First, we identify the various manifestations of political violence (riots, coups and civil war) and their risk of occurrence by using a multinomial model. Second, we use predicted probabilities of aggregate violence and its three manifestations to identify their growth effects in an encompassing growth model. The results of Generalised Method of Moments dynamic panel regressions suggest that organised political violence, especially civil war, significantly lowers long-term economic growth. Moreover, unlike most previous studies, we also find ethnic fractionalisation to have a negative and direct effect on growth, though its effect is substantially ameliorated by the institutions specific to a non-factional democratic society. Third, we find that Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been disproportionately impacted by civil war, which explains a substantial share of its economic decline, including the widening income gap relative to East Asia. Civil wars have also been very costly for SSA. For the case of Sudan, a typical large African country experiencing a long-duration conflict, war cost amounts to $46 billion (in 2000 fixed prices), which is roughly double the country's current stock of external debt. Fourth, we suggest that to break free from its conflict-underdevelopment trap, Africa needs to better manage its ethnic diversity and the way to do it is to develop inclusive, non-factional democracy. A democratic but factional polity will not do the trick and is only marginally better than authoritarian regimes.en
dc.identifier.citationJournal of African Economies
dc.identifier.issn09638024
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/5431
dc.language.isoEN
dc.relation.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.subjectModels of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior D720
dc.subjectConflict
dc.subjectConflict Resolution
dc.subjectAlliances D740
dc.subjectMacroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O110
dc.subjectFormal and Informal Sectors
dc.subjectShadow Economy
dc.subjectInstitutional Arrangements O170
dc.titlePolitical Violence and Underdevelopmenten
dc.title.alternativeJournal of African Economiesen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.typeArticle de journalfr
dc.typeArtículo de revistaes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.doctypeJournal Article
okr.externalcontentExternal Content
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum262
okr.journal.nbpagesii50-96
okr.language.supporteden
okr.peerreviewAcademic Peer Review
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.relation.associatedurlhttp://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1012036&site=ehost-live
okr.relation.associatedurlhttp://jae.oxfordjournals.org
okr.volume17
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