Publication: The Role of Macro-Prudential Policies in the Boom and Adjustment Phase of the Credit Cycle in Estonia
Loading...
Date
2011-10-01
ISSN
Published
2011-10-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Estonian economy experienced an unusually long business and credit cycle during the first decade of the 21st century. The magnitude of the cycle tested what can be achieved by traditional policy tools and the limits of macro-prudential policies. The country's financial sector, almost fully consisting of foreign banks, displayed the complexities of cross-border regulation and supervision. Capital and liquidity requirements that were stricter than international minimums, as well as the build-up of fiscal buffers, were instrumental to engineering an orderly adjustment. Openness and integration, including well-advanced cross-border cooperation, were equally important in maintaining financial stability throughout the global financial crisis.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Sutt, Andres; Korju, Helen; Siibak, Kadri. 2011. The Role of Macro-Prudential Policies in the Boom and Adjustment Phase of the Credit Cycle in Estonia. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5835. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3599 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-11)One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier,” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis.Publication From Tailwinds to Headwinds(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-10)The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been transformative for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). These economies now account for about 45 percent of global GDP, up from about 25 percent in 2000, a trend driven by robust collective growth in the three largest EMDEs—China, India, and Brazil (the EM3). Collectively, EMDEs have contributed about 60 percent of annual global growth since 2000, on average, double the share during the 1990s. Their ascendance was powered by swift global trade and financial integration, especially during the first decade of the century. Interdependence among these economies has also increased markedly. Today, nearly half of goods exports from EMDEs go to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000. As cross-border linkages have strengthened, business cycles among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies have become more synchronized, and a distinct EMDE business cycle has emerged. Cross-border business cycle spillovers from the EM3 to other EMDEs are sizable, at about half of the magnitude of spillovers from the largest advanced economies (the United States, the euro area, and Japan). Yet EMDEs confront a host of headwinds at the turn of the second quarter of the century. Progress implementing structural reforms in many of these economies has stalled. Globally, protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation have risen sharply. High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and the rising costs of climate change weigh on economic prospects. A successful policy approach to accelerate growth and development should focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating a difficult external environment, and enhancing macroeconomic stability.Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Macro-Prudential Regulation of Credit Booms and Busts : The Case of Poland(2011-10-01)The last several years before the global downturn of 2008-2009 saw rapid credit growth in Poland. The credit-to-gross domestic product ratio rose from about 25 percent in 2004 to close to 50 percent in 2009. Such an expansion itself might potentially be a source of risks to financial stability, but it was also coupled with relatively new phenomena, such as massive foreign currency lending. Thanks to the pro-active attitude of the Polish authorities and sound economic fundamentals, the risks largely have not materialized. Since 2006 the financial supervisor has addressed in its recommendations for banks the problem of foreign exchange lending, which contributed to the high quality of the portfolio. Before the economy slowed down, the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority persuaded banks to accumulate an additional capital buffer that helped protect them from the negative consequences of the downturn. Some regulatory concepts that had been put into place in Poland in the previous years, including quantitative liquidity requirements, are now being implemented globally. The Polish Financial Supervisory Authority participates in international debates on a new regulatory regime for the financial system. The major message the authority intends to convey is that all new regulations must be tailored carefully. Regulators should make an effort to ensure that the benefits of enhanced quality of the capital base or the countercyclical buffer are not compromised by international overregulation that could undermine national authorities' ability to pursue effective country-specific policies.Publication El Salvador Financial Sector Assessment Program(Washington, DC, 2010-11)In El Salvador, the banking safety net emergency liquidity assistance, resolution and deposit insurance- faces particular challenges given it operate in the context of official dollarization. The economy was officially dollarized in 2000 with the adoption of the law on financial integration and of the United States (US) dollar as legal tender. Dollarization constrains a central bank's ability to act as a lender of last resort (LOLR) and provide emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). This note discusses the weaknesses of the current framework and recommendations to ensure the safety net functions more effectively and efficiently. To address systemic liquidity risk in the context of official dollarization, the Banco Central de Reservas (BCR) should be provided with more powers and funds to provide emergency liquidity assistance to banks. The bank resolution scheme, which has not been tested, and the deposit insurance fund, which has insufficient funds, both need to be strengthened. Appropriate roles and formal mechanisms to monitor and manage systemic risk and events should be put in place. However the roles and responsibilities of the various institutions involved in the safety net are not always consistent with their objectives, powers, and mandates, while a well-specified strategy to preserve the stability of the system (e.g., with clear responsibilities for monitoring systemic risks and taking macro prudential decisions) and definition or formal measurement of systemic risk have not yet been established. Furthermore, coordination with foreign supervisors of international banks does not include designing contingency plans to address a possible cross-border event. This paper is divided into following four parts: part one is introduction; part two gives systemic liquidity management and emergency liquidity assistance; part three is bank resolution and deposit insurance; and part four gives crisis management arrangements.Publication Serbia : Financial Sector Assessment(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-06-08)The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update team found that the authorities have progressed in implementing the key recommendations from the initial assessment. The 2005 FSAP team revealed a number of vulnerabilities, including (i) high credit growth, largely financed by foreign banks, which resulted in rising nonperforming loans (NPLs), and (ii) poor management and low capital of several systematically important state-controlled banks. The Basel Core Principle on Banking Supervision (BCP) assessment identified a number of deficiencies in banking supervision. The update team found that the authorities took action to address the issues highlighted by the 2005 FSAP. In particular, they adopted prudential measures to slow credit growth, including higher risk weights for foreign currency loans to un-hedged borrowers, and exposure limits to households. Two systemic state-controlled banks were privatized. Finally, a new banking law was enacted that significantly strengthened supervision on consolidated basis and improved corporate governance and transparency.Publication Financial Sector Assessment : Republic of Tajikistan(World Bank, 2009-03)Financial intermediation in Tajikistan has deepened in recent years, albeit from a low base. This is reflected in the overall growth of the financial system, greater diversification, and the expansion of lending to previously under-served sectors, such as agriculture and small- and medium-sized enterprises. Even after the expansion, however, the financial sector remains small and cannot serve all the financing needs of the economy. While banks are generally well capitalized and liquid, their rapid growth has brought new risk exposures that should be carefully monitored and appropriately addressed. In particular, rapid loan growth could lead to a build-up of unrecognized credit risk and give rise to an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs). Because of extensive dollarization, the exposure of banks to exchange-rate induced credit risk is another significant cause for concern. Also, the exceptionally rapid growth of nonresident deposits without clear knowledge of their sources exposes the banking system to reputational risk. Significant strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework will be needed to sustain the system's health in the face of rapid growth. Governance in the financial sector needs significant strengthening. Improvements are needed to ensure the integrity of the regulatory bodies and to guarantee that all financial transactions are conducted at arms' length and priced on a market basis. Fair and transparent resolution of the large stock of distressed cotton debt would demonstrate the government's commitment to market principles and good governance.Publication European and Best Practice Bank Resolution Mechanisms : An Assessment and Recommendations for Policy and Legal Reforms(Washington, DC, 2012-03-20)The process of bank resolution, or the procedure for handling insolvency of banks using a range of tools, including alternatives to standard bankruptcy processes, has gained major traction since the experience of the 2008-09 financial crisis. In this context, this report reviews models for bank resolution that provide increased flexibility and describes several of the supervisory, legal and instrumental tools that can be used under modernized bank resolution procedures. As well, it looks at the recent European Commission proposals on this matter which take into account international best practices experiences. It also highlights areas of reform and areas where further regulatory considerations and priorities should be considered. The report reviews the bank resolution regimes of a group of European countries as well as those of two non-EU countries to highlight advantages as well as gaps in the legal and regulatory frameworks. This report surveys the banking and deposit insurance laws of six European countries : Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, the U.K., and Croatia. Remedial enforcement measures for distressed banks and for bank resolution reveals that adoption of the EU legislative proposals, as described in the EC Communication, would require significant changes in legislation in four of the six countries. The report also reviews the laws of Canada and the U.S. for comparison, as implementation of their laws has already utilized several of the resolution instruments and mechanisms being considered.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.