Publication: Zambia Economic Brief, June 2017: Reaping Richer Returns from Public Expenditures in Agriculture
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2017-06-01
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2017-06-01
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Zambia’s economy has picked up in 2017 from the tough conditions of 2015 and 2016. Copper priceshave firmed, but they remain low when compared to their peak. However, the big challenge remains with ensuring a shift to fiscal sustainability. Bold actions are needed to clear arrears and ensure they do not build up again in the future. Brief includes two sections: the World Bank’sassessment of recent economic developments and the outlook in the short to medium term, and itsanalysis of a specific development topic or theme.
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“World Bank Group. 2017. Zambia Economic Brief, June 2017: Reaping Richer Returns from Public Expenditures in Agriculture. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27521 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Zambia Economic Brief, June 2014 : Promoting Trade and Competitiveness - What Can Zambia Do?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06)Zambia continues to experience strong growth, but challenges are building up. Copper prices are declining, and global financial conditions are tightening. At home, the fiscal deficit is becoming difficult to manage, and Zambia's currency has sharply depreciated. The government intends to reduce future budget deficits, but this would involve making difficult political choices. In the past few years inflation and interest rates have declined and the currency has been relatively stable, providing an environment for growth and reducing poverty. High inflation would hurt the poor most. The brief specifically focuses on the opportunity for Zambia to emerge as a major food exporter to Eastern and Southern Africa and the policy direction that would take it there; the need to reduce high costs of crossing borders that will facilitate regional trade in non-copper products; and a long-term approach to developing competitiveness of the local mining supply cluster.Publication Zambia Economic Brief, June 2016, Issue 7(World Bank, Lusaka, 2016-06-01)The external environment confronting Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to remain difficult in the near term. Commodity prices are expected to remain low, and in 2016, growth in the region isforecast to drop to 2.5 percent from 3.0 percent in 2015 (World Bank forecast). There is considerable variation in economic performance across countries, with the slowdown concentrated among the region's largest commodity exporters. Growing economic vulnerabilities, amid weakened policy buffers, continue to pose challenges for policy makers. The balance of risks to the outlook remains tilted to the downside. The global risks include: (i) a sharper than expected slowdown in China (as the country rebalances growth toward consumption and services), (ii) a further decline in commodity prices, and (iii) tighter global financing conditions that would result in higher borrowing costs and reduced sovereign bond access for emerging and frontier countries. On the domestic front, delays in adjustment to external shocks in affected countries would create policy uncertainties that could weigh on investor sentiment and weaken the recovery.Publication Zambia Economic Brief, June 2015, Issue 5(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06-01)After several years of strong economic performance, Zambia now confronts several important challenges that must be managed carefully to ensure sustained and inclusive growth in the future. On the one hand, the economy grew by an estimated 5.5–6.0 percent in 2014, somewhat above the average for African economies. Monthly copper production increased by an average of 8 percent during the second half of 2014, reversing the sharp slide in early 2014. Inflation fell to 7.2 percent in March and April, helped both by falling world oil prices and by the Bank of Zambia’s monetary tightening. In the first half of 2015, the authorities adjusted several key economic policies to respond to serious problems: revising rules on VAT refunds in February, announcing a new mining fiscal regime in April, and raising fuel prices in May so that the government could recover import costs. On the other hand, the kwacha has come under renewed pressure. It lost 17 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar from December 2014 through the end of March 2015. Since then it has recovered somewhat, but foreign exchange markets remain volatile. 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While inflation has declined, the exchange rate stabilized, and the fiscal position improved, fundamental economic imbalances continue to make Kenya vulnerable to shocks. In the absence of economic and social turbulence, Kenya should grow at 5 percent in 2012 and 2013, which will still be substantially below its neighbors. Kenya has been benefitting from the integration and growth momentum in the East African Community (EAC), which has become one of the most vibrant economic regions in the world. However, despite impressive increases in trade between the five EAC partners in recent years, there is still a large untapped potential. 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