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Lao PDR Economic Monitor, January 2019: Macroeconomic Stability Amidst Uncertainty

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-08T17:00:26Z
dc.date.available2019-02-08T17:00:26Z
dc.date.issued2019-01
dc.description.abstractAlthough decelerating from 6.9 percent the previous year, economic growth in 2018 is estimated to remain robust at 6.5 percent. The slowdown in growth in 2018 has been partly due to a combination of the following domestic factors : (i) the severe floods that hit the country during July – September 2018, which adversely affected agricultural production and damaged infrastructure in several provinces; (ii) the weak performance of the mining sector despite higher commodity prices; and (iii) continued fiscal consolidation, which contributed to slower credit growth. These downside factors offset the gains from the industry sector driven by the expansion of construction activities and electricity exports, coupled with robust growth in wholesale and retail trade. There is evidence of increasing job creation between 2010 and 2017. According to the 2017 Labor Force Survey, wage jobs are estimated to have gradually increased since 2010. This has resulted in 28 percent of households situated mostly in urban areas reporting an increase in income. As a result, ownership of consumption goods among the more affluent households increased faster than in poorer, mainly rural, households. Therefore, while poverty is still expected to decline modestly, inequality is likely to have increased. The government intends to remain on the path of fiscal consolidation, with the deficit estimated to decrease to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2018 from 5.3 percent in 2017, owing to some improvement in revenue collection and expenditure restraint. Improved revenue performance has been primarily driven by higher excise revenues due to increasing oil imports coupled with a higher price of oil. Other drivers include an increase in income taxes, dividend earnings, and other non-tax revenues. Strengthened revenue administration, such as the use of electronic tax payment platforms, has also supported revenue mobilization for certain tax types. Public outlays have been rationalized through tighter control of the public wage bill and downward adjustment of non-wage current spending. These measures offset higher interest payments and the increase in capital spending financed by external loans. Fiscal consolidation is estimated to have slowed the accumulation of public debt in 2018, though not enough to reverse the rising debt-GDP ratio, which is estimated to increase from 60.1 to 60.6 percent of GDP between 2017 and 2018.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/818841549314902040/Lao-PDR-Economic-Monitor-Macroeconomic-Stability-Amidst-Uncertainty
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/31243
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/31243
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Vientiane
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectFISCAL TRENDS
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectEDUCATION
dc.subjectCHILD HEALTH
dc.titleLao PDR Economic Monitor, January 2019en
dc.title.subtitleMacroeconomic Stability Amidst Uncertaintyen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleLao PDR Economic Monitor, January 2019
okr.date.disclosure2019-02-04
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/818841549314902040/Lao-PDR-Economic-Monitor-Macroeconomic-Stability-Amidst-Uncertainty
okr.guid818841549314902040
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/31243
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08692a949_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum30807916
okr.identifier.report134324
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/818841549314902040/pdf/134324-LEM-Jan-2019-final-for-online.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryLao People's Democratic Republic
okr.topicEducation::Education For All
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Early Child and Children's Health
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Employment and Shared Growth
okr.unitEast Asia and Pacific 1 (GMTP1)
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