Publication:
Undeclared Economic Activity in Central and Eastern Europe : How Taxes Contribute and How Countries Respond to the Problem

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (2.03 MB)
521 downloads
English Text (195.39 KB)
215 downloads
Published
2011-12-01
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Editor(s)
Abstract
The paper examines the incentives and distortions created by tax policy and administration structures that motivate individuals to undeclare or under-declare work in the new EU member countries. It analyses the tax level and the tax structure "mix" of tax instruments, the special taxation regimes set up to attract workers and entrepreneurs back into the formal economy and how tax policies such as the introduction of a "flat tax" on income from labor and capital impacted workers and entrepreneurs in terms of formalizing work. It also attempts to gain some insight into the effectiveness of tax administration by comparing some input and output measures As non-tax factors can amplify the adverse effects of taxes on the labor market and reduce the effectiveness of tax reform, some of these other economic framework conditions are also discussed. This paper concludes by refining the main results and possible best practices for tackling undeclared work. The paper argues that the new EU member countries have had mixed success tackling undeclared work. While taxation matters, other underlying conditions for formal sector activity are also important. Addressing the problem of undeclared work therefore requires a broad policy approach with further improvements in tax policies, tax administration, and in general economic framework conditions for formal sector activity.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Leibfritz, Willi. 2011. Undeclared Economic Activity in Central and Eastern Europe : How Taxes Contribute and How Countries Respond to the Problem. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5923. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3691 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22) Taglioni, Daria; KEE, Hiau Looi
    As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
  • Publication
    Monitoring Global Aid Flows: A Novel Approach Using Large Language Models
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04) Luo, Xubei; Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji; Scruggs, Andrew Conner
    Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400,000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    The State of Global Services Trade Policies: Evidence from Recent Data
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-28) Baiker, Laura; Borchert, Ingo; Echandi, Roberto; Fernandes, Ana M.; Hans, Ishrat; Magdeleine, Joscelyn; Marchetti, Juan A.; Colomer, Ester Rubio
    The economic environment for services trade has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, driven by rapid technological progress that has expanded the possibilities for exchanging services. How has trade policy responded to these changes? How do policy stances in a wide range of service sectors compare across economies? With its unprecedented global coverage, the Services Trade Policy Database and the associated Services Trade Restrictions Index, developed jointly by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, help address these questions. This paper makes three principal contributions. First, it offers an in-depth discussion of the current state of services trade policies and their differences across 134 economies and 34 services subsectors. Second, the paper reveals how recent (2016–22) changes in policy stances have seen progressive liberalization by lower-income economies but stabilization or even slight policy reversals in high-income economies. This dynamic differs fundamentally from the trend that unfolded after the Great Recession over 2008–16. Third, the paper shows the implications of policy changes over the past six years on services trade costs, and it showcases how the Services Trade Policy Database’s regulatory information can inform trade negotiations, regulatory analysis, and policy making. Alongside these contributions, the paper documents updates to the Services Trade Policy Database’s economy and sector coverage and explains the latest methodological improvements made to the World Bank–World Trade Organization Services Trade Restrictions Index.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Republic of Kazakhstan Tax Strategy Paper : Volume 1. A Strategic Plan for Increasing the Neutrality of the Tax System in Non-Extractive Sectors
    (Washington, DC, 2008-06) World Bank
    This study focuses on the tax system for non-subsurface users in Kazakhstan. It takes as given the tax reform package that the authorities and stakeholders are designing, but proposes a number of additional steps to be taken over the next 2-3 years aimed at maximizing the benefits of tax neutrality on competitiveness. The first volume of this report mainly focuses on tax policy: taxes on labor, capital, and consumption. A draft report on administration was also produced for discussion, which includes an initial assessment for organization, planning and staffing, a large taxpayers unit, anti-corruption issues, taxpayer services and education, audit and inspections, collection activities, and legal issues and appeal. The second volume of the tax strategy paper examines tax administration issues, and identifies functional areas that require attention in the short, medium and longer-term. This examination represents an initial diagnostic and is not a final blueprint for modernization. The nine areas diagnosed are: organizational structure, human resource and training; anti-corruption; taxpayer service and education; large taxpayers; audit/inspection; collection; information technology; and legal and appeals.
  • Publication
    Reducing Undeclared Employment in Hungary : Synthesis Report of The World Bank Study
    (Washington, DC, 2008-05) World Bank
    Undeclared work and incomes are a serious concern for the Government of Hungary, primarily because of the negative consequences for the country's already difficult fiscal situation. The Government has already introduced a number of reforms intended to reduce undeclared economic activity. Much of the effort to this point has focused on strengthening the "stick" through enforcement and sanctions. A successful strategy to combat the undeclared economy also requires more effective "carrots" that improve the incentives to operate in the formal sector. The most important measures will involve reforms to lighten the tax burden, especially on labor. Public information and education is the final element in a strategy to move Hungary to the "tipping point" in the struggle against the undeclared economy.
  • Publication
    Paying Taxes 2012
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012) World Bank; International Finance Corporation; PricewaterhouseCoopers
    The objectives of the study are to provide data which can be compared between economies on a like-for-like basis; to facilitate the benchmarking of tax systems within relevant economic and geographical groupings, which can provide an opportunity to learn from peer group economies; and to enable an in-depth analysis of the results which can be used to help identify good practices and possible reforms. The private sector plays an essential role in contributing to economic growth and prosperity. Companies contribute to socio-economic development by employing workers, improving the skills and knowledge base, buying from local suppliers and providing products and services that improve people's lives. They also contribute to government revenues through generating and paying taxes. The paying taxes study is unique because it generates a set of indicators that measure the world's tax systems from the point of view of business and also because it covers the full range of taxes paid in 183 economies, measuring how business complies with the different tax laws and regulations in each economy.
  • Publication
    Uruguay : Poverty and Social Impact Assessment of the Tax Reform
    (Washington, DC, 2008-05) World Bank
    The Poverty and Social Impact Assessment (PSIA) analyzes the impact of the tax reform, which came into effect in July 2007, on tax incidence and poverty in Uruguay. The essence of the reform is the introduction of a dual personal income tax, which taxes labor income at progressive rates and capital income at lower, proportional rates. A further modification is the reduction in the revenue share of indirect taxes. The study aims to provide information to inform policy discussion on distributional implications of tax reform. In addition, it gives impetus for further more sophisticated analysis of current and proposed tax reforms. In designing a tax system, a trade-off exists between efficiency, equity and administrative simplicity. The paper focuses on one aspect of this trade-off by evaluating the equity impact of the tax reform in Uruguay. Neither the efficiency of the post-reform tax system nor the effect on tax administration is examined. Assessing the distributional impact of a tax reform is important, firstly, as there is a potential to mitigate the equity-efficiency trade-off in the design of tax structures, and secondly, as the expenditure side of the budget can then be employed to diminish any adverse distributional impacts.
  • Publication
    Pakistan - Tax Policy Report : Tapping Tax Bases for Development - Full Report
    (World Bank, 2009-07-01) World Bank
    The main message of this report is that Pakistan can take measures to increase the tax to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio by around 3.5 percentage points over the next five years. In order to ensure a healthy long-run economic development, Pakistan needs to embrace substantial changes in tax policy aimed at increasing the buoyancy of the tax system, broadening the tax bases, reducing distortions and phasing out exemptions. Such tax reforms are also required to deal with the risks stemming from sustained large budget deficits. Failing to act sooner rather than later, only makes the problem more difficult to address without considerable instability, raises the probability of fiscal and financial disarray at some point in the future, and runs the risks of further constraining policy flexibility in future. This report highlights design ingredients for a comprehensive reform of tax policy in Pakistan. In the final analysis, the success of tax reform will depend less on the mechanism of taxation and more on the politics of taxation. Beyond adequate administrative resources and an implementation strategy, this will require a clear political recognition of the importance of the task and the willingness to persist with tax reform over the long haul.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises
    (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28) World Bank; International Finance Corporation
    Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.