Publication:
Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-08T18:23:16Z
dc.date.available2014-12-08T18:23:16Z
dc.date.issued2014-10
dc.description.abstractTajikistan s economic growth moderated to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 from 7.5 percent a year earlier as activity slowed in almost all sectors. Weaker world economic growth and lower prices for cotton and aluminum adversely affected the major export-oriented industries, pushing total industrial growth below 3 percent from nearly 7 percent a year earlier. Lower inflows of remittances due to the slowdown in Russia have translated into lower domestic demand and slower growth in services and housing construction. Though growth in agricultural output also moderated due to heavy rains and low temperatures, it was still a healthy 6 percent. Inflation began to pick up as food prices rose and tariffs for utilities were adjusted, reaching 4.7 percent for the first half of 2014 compared to 1.6 percent a year earlier. However, fixed investment grew swiftly as the public investment program got underway. GDP growth is projected to ease to 6.5 percent in 2014 because of the spillover effect from the slowdown in Russia and in export sales. A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely through the remittances channel. A slackening in remittances weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for services and housing construction. Inflation pressures are expected to increase but stable global food prices should help to keep growth in inflation within a single digit. Despite slower economic growth the fiscal deficit is projected to remain unchanged in 2014 because of higher than expected revenues from foreign trade, reforms in revenue collection, and spending restraint. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.7 percent of GDP because of sluggish export growth and the remittance slowdown. Tajikistan could perhaps benefit from the Russian ban on import of food from the West but fragile market links, limited economies of scale, poor access to credit, and barriers to entry and expansion limit Tajik ability to benefit from increased Russian demand.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/20302396/tajikistan-moderated-growth-heightened-risks
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/20674
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20674
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTajikistan Economic Report;No.6
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCESS TO CREDIT
dc.subjectACCESS TO FINANCE
dc.subjectACCOUNTABILITY
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectACCOUNTING STANDARDS
dc.subjectADB
dc.subjectADMINISTRATIVE COSTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectAPPLICATION PROCESS
dc.subjectARREARS
dc.subjectASSET QUALITY
dc.subjectBAILOUT
dc.subjectBANK COMPLIANCE
dc.subjectBANK CREDIT
dc.subjectBANKING SECTOR
dc.subjectBANKING SUPERVISION
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEM
dc.subjectBANKRUPTCY
dc.subjectBARRIERS TO ENTRY
dc.subjectBASIS POINTS
dc.subjectBENEFICIARY
dc.subjectBONDS
dc.subjectBRANCH NETWORK
dc.subjectBRIBE
dc.subjectBRIBES
dc.subjectBROKERS
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subjectCAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subjectCAPITAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectCASH COLLECTIONS
dc.subjectCASH MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCOLLATERAL
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL BANK
dc.subjectCONSOLIDATION
dc.subjectCONSULTING SERVICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER CONFIDENCE
dc.subjectCONSUMER GOODS
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCONSUMER PROTECTION
dc.subjectCONSUMER PROTECTION LAWS
dc.subjectCORRUPTION
dc.subjectCPI
dc.subjectCREDIBILITY
dc.subjectCREDIT BUREAUS
dc.subjectCREDIT CULTURE
dc.subjectCREDIT INFORMATION
dc.subjectCREDIT SCORES
dc.subjectCREDITOR
dc.subjectCREDITORS
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectCURRENT ASSETS
dc.subjectDEFICITS
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT BANK
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BANKING
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIES OF SCALE
dc.subjectENABLING ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectENTREPRENEURS
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE POLICIES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFARMING HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectFINANCIAL VIABILITY
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFIXED INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN BANKS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE ISSUES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SUPPORT
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectHIGH INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectHOUSING
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMMOVABLE PROPERTY
dc.subjectINCOME GROUP
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINCREMENTAL COSTS
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFORMAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectINFORMATION SYSTEM
dc.subjectINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectINSPECTION SYSTEM
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectINVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subjectISLAMIC BANKING
dc.subjectISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK
dc.subjectJOB CREATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE SURVEY
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLACK OF ACCESS
dc.subjectLENDERS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARD
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectLOAN AGREEMENT
dc.subjectLOAN AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectLOAN PORTFOLIO
dc.subjectLOAN RATES
dc.subjectLOAN REPAYMENTS
dc.subjectLONG-TERM INVESTMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMATURITY
dc.subjectMATURITY MISMATCHES
dc.subjectMETALS
dc.subjectMICROFINANCE
dc.subjectMIGRATION
dc.subjectMINIMUM WAGE
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectNEW BUSINESS
dc.subjectNON PERFORMING LOANS
dc.subjectNONPERFORMING LOAN
dc.subjectNONPERFORMING LOANS
dc.subjectNPL
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectOUTREACH
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPOOR ACCESS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subjectPROBLEM BANKS
dc.subjectPRODUCERS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS
dc.subjectPRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC GOOD
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC SERVICES
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectREGISTRATION SYSTEM
dc.subjectREMITTANCE
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURN ON ASSETS
dc.subjectRETURN ON EQUITY
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
dc.subjectSEWAGE
dc.subjectSOCIAL SERVICES
dc.subjectSOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectSOURCE OF CREDIT
dc.subjectSTATE PROPERTY
dc.subjectSTATE PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL REFORMS
dc.subjectSUBSIDY COST
dc.subjectSUPERVISORY FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE GROWTH
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX ADMINISTRATION
dc.subjectTAX COLLECTIONS
dc.subjectTAX POLICY
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRANSACTION
dc.subjectTRANSACTIONS SYSTEM
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTRANSPORT
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNION
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWEIGHTS
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.titleTajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risksen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2014-10-23
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T09:19:48.522963Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/20302396/tajikistan-moderated-growth-heightened-risks
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.guid430521468311094459
okr.guid977281468175449183
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000470435_20141017100029
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum20302396
okr.identifier.report91467
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/10/17/000470435_20141017100029/Rendered/PDF/914670WP0Tajik0R0Box385332B00OUO090.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryTajikistan
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Access to Finance
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topicBanks and Banking Reform
okr.topicEnvironment
okr.unitFinance & Markets - GP - IBRD (GFMDR)
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