Publication:
Pacific Economic Update, August 2023: Recovering in the Midst of Uncertainty - Special Focus : Harnessing the Benefits of Pacific Migration

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-03T15:50:26Z
dc.date.available2023-08-03T15:50:26Z
dc.date.issued2023-08-03
dc.description.abstractThe global economic recovery remains fragile, creating choppy seas for the recovering Pacific. While global conditions have gradually improved since the pandemic and spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, progress on reducing inflation in major economies has proven more challenging than expected. Given that all Pacific countries are net importers, this has resulted in persistently high imported inflation. The speed of monetary policy tightening by major central banks has slowed, but easing is unlikely in the near term. Aggregate demand in major trading partners of the Pacific (particularly Australia and New Zealand) remains lackluster. This could limit demand for travel and tourism services and other income sources such as remittance and commodity exports. Despite uncertainties in the global economic recovery, Pacific economies are expected to see ongoing expansion in 2023 and 2024. Fiji led the Pacific’s post-COVID-19 recovery with open borders and a strong rebound in 2022 and is now on track to reach its pre-pandemic output level in 2023. Ongoing recovery expectations in the Pacific are broadly in line with March 2023 World Bank projections except for Tuvalu and Palau, where growth has been revised down given weaker than expected outcomes in construction and tourism. In 2023, Pacific growth is expected to reach 3.9 percent and then moderate to 3.3 percent in 2024 as the initial post-COVID-19 rebound dissipates and the region moves towards its long-term trend growth of 2.6 percent. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains high and depends on whether a soft landing can be achieved among key trading partners as they battle ongoing inflation. Inflation remained stubborn across the Pacific at an average of over 6.7 percent in 2022, a substantial increase from the 1.5 percent average during 2019-2021. This has increased the risk of vulnerable populations falling into poverty. In line with global trends, Pacific inflation is expected to decline to an average of 6.0 percent in 2023 and gradually subside thereafter.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099080223220033848/P5004110a5a9fc0c00a3b7099b15ec2d02e
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/40146
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40146
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY-NC 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo
dc.subjectMIGRATION
dc.subjectJOB MARKETS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectWELFARE
dc.subjectINTEGRATION
dc.subjectBENEFITS
dc.titlePacific Economic Update, August 2023en
dc.title.subtitleRecovering in the Midst of Uncertainty - Special Focus : Harnessing the Benefits of Pacific Migrationen
dc.typeReport
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePacific Economic Update, August 2023: Recovering in the Midst of Uncertainty - Special Focus : Harnessing the Benefits of Pacific Migration
okr.date.disclosure2023-08-03
okr.date.lastmodified2023-08-03T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099080223220033848/P5004110a5a9fc0c00a3b7099b15ec2d02e
okr.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue
okr.guid099080223220033848
okr.identifier.docmidP500411-a5a9fc33-038e-4ac0-a3b7-99b15ec2d02e
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/40146
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34129492
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34129492
okr.identifier.report184370
okr.import.id1387
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099080223220033848/pdf/P5004110a5a9fc0c00a3b7099b15ec2d02e.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalOceania
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Migration and Development
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::International Migration
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitEFI-EAP-MTI-MacroFiscal-2 (EEAM2)
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