Publication: Myanmar Economic Monitor, December 2018: Navigating Risks
Loading...
Date
2018-12
ISSN
Published
2018-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Myanmar's economy is navigating significant uncertainty and risks at home and abroad. A year after violent upheaval in Rakhine State led to the forced displacement of over seven hundred thousand refugees to Bangladesh, limited progress has been made in resolving fundamental issues relating to rights, repatriation and recovery. Global economic and trade prospects have also become more uncertain. Myanmar's economic growth is expected to slow from 6.8 percent in 2017/18 to 6.2 percent in 2018/19, which is still robust by regional and global standards. Macroeconomic volatility has intensified since the May 2018 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation breaching two-year highs in August 2018, and the kyat depreciating by 18 percent against the U.S. dollar since April. Growth is projected to recover to 6.6 percent by 2020/21, helped by recent policy changes such as the adoption of the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan, liberalization of wholesale and retail trade, implementation of the Myanmar Companies Law and large investments in infrastructure projects including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to the possibility of a global slowdown in trade, domestic macroeconomic imbalances, and the loss of trade-related preferences to the European Union.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2018. Myanmar Economic Monitor, December 2018: Navigating Risks. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31031 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Kenya Economic Update, December 2014, No. 11(World Bank, Nairobi, 2014-12)This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.Publication Senegal Economic Update, December 2014 : Learning from the Past for a Better Future(Washington, DC, 2014-12)Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was a disappointing 3.5 percent in 2013. It remained largely unchanged compared to 2012, reflecting a decline in cereal production and stagnation in the industrial sector. Services continue to drive the economy. The economic outlook for 2014 was more positive, but poor rainfall and the Ebola outbreak have forced downward revisions in GDP growth projections, now expected to reach 4.5 percent. The plan Senegal emergent aims to break with this trend, with a welcome focus on higher economic growth. However, its ambitions may exceed available resources and will likely depend on accelerated reforms and a strong private sector response. This first economic update begins with an overview of the macroeconomic situation in Senegal, starting with a review of 2013 before examining the initial results of 2014. After a brief look at the challenges posed by unemployment and poverty, the report turns to an assessment of the growth strategy. It presents analysis of past performance since 1990 in order to understand better what needs to be done differently. The report concludes with a few recommendations.Publication Myanmar Economic Monitor, May 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05)Myanmar's economy performed better in 2017/18 with a modest growth acceleration that partially reversed the deterioration experienced in 2016/17. While the outlook remains positive, risks have intensified. The economy experienced a broad-based increase in real GDP growth to 6.4 percent in 2017/181 from 5.9 percent in 2016/17. Inflation moderated from 7 percent in 2016/17 to 5.5 percent in 2017/18. The exchange rate was stable and appreciated slightly towards the end of the year, the current account deficit narrowed slightly on strong export growth, and the fiscal deficit also narrowed in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While performance remains strong and the macroeconomic outlook is positive, there are concerns that the slow pace of reforms, vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and limited progress in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine are starting to affect business sentiment and could weaken performance. External risks from uncertainty in global trade policy and in commodity prices intensify the downside risks to the growth outlook.Publication Myanmar Economic Monitor, October 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-10)This economic update provides an overview for 2012 and 2013 in Myanmar, years during which the economy continued to accelerate. The main drivers of growth were increased gas production, services, construction, foreign direct investment, and strong commodity exports. Inflation has been on the rise in recent months, but the outlook is positive with the economy projected to grow more. This will be on account of a continued increase in gas production, increased trade, and stronger performance in agriculture. Risks to the outlook include the challenge of maintaining the reform momentum. Externally, a slowdown in Chinese domestic investment and a decline in global commodity prices would hurt commodity exporting countries such as Myanmar. The policy watch section presents a number of planned or recently implemented policy reforms which reflect the country's continuing drive to improve the business environment. A special feature article presents a summary of findings from a recent assessment of Myanmar s Public Financial Management (PFM).Publication Philippine Economic Update, December 2012(World Bank, Manila, 2012-12)The Philippine economy has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in East Asia, with growth accelerating to 7.1 percent in the third quarter. The acceleration of domestic demand since the first quarter of 2012 reflects the country's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, stronger government finances, and high confidence in the Aquino government's commitment to reform. Sound macroeconomic fundamentals, as seen in low inflation, and large current account surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, have continued to shield the economy from external headwinds, while a more diversified export basket allowed total exports to grow, despite the decline in electronics exports. Overall, the economy is expected to expand by over six percent this year, up from 3.9 percent last year. However, more structural reforms are needed to create more and better jobs, as the overall labor market outcome has been less responsive to the higher economic growth. The economy needs to shift from consumption towards investment, both public and private. The special focus sections of this update demonstrate that the implementation of such reforms can have high payoffs in terms of jobs and inclusive growth. Finally, by scaling-up and broadening several open government/open data initiatives in the country, the strengthening of inclusive institutions would be greatly enhanced, in line with the core principles of this government.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.