Publication:
Aging Population, Pension Funds, and Financial Markets : Regional Perspectives and Global Challenges for Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.14 MB)
1,994 downloads
English Text (442.39 KB)
245 downloads
Published
2009
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Editor(s)
Abstract
Population aging is a worldwide phenomenon, but it is particularly advanced in highly developed northern countries. The retirement of the baby-boom generation in these rich countries will impose additional, albeit temporary, pressure on their pension systems. To cope with this pressure, reforms have been introduced that have lessened the generosity of publicly provided pension benefits. By design and by implication, this change increases the importance of mandatory and voluntary funded retirement schemes in smoothing consumption across the life cycle. The first three chapters of this book investigate questions germane to pension systems in the Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe (CESE) economies: the extent to which pension systems were prepared to deal with multi pillar pension reform, how to foster the development of financial systems so that they can better support funded systems, and how ready the systems are for the approaching payout of benefits as the first participants in the funded pillar approach retirement age. The remaining three chapters investigate broader questions facing pension systems in both developed and emerging countries: the capacity of the financial markets to deliver sufficiently high net rates of return, the benefits and disadvantages of investment in emerging markets, and the effect of aging on the rates of return afforded by funded and unfunded schemes.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Holzmann, Robert. 2009. Aging Population, Pension Funds, and Financial Markets : Regional Perspectives and Global Challenges for Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe. Directions in Development ; finance. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2606 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) World Bank; Ranarifidy, Dina
    The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.
  • Publication
    An Investment Framework for Nutrition
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-12) Shekar, Meera; Kakietek, Jakub; Dayton Eberwein, Julia; Walters, Dylan
    The report estimates the costs, impacts and financing scenarios to achieve the World Health Assembly global nutrition targets for stunting, anemia in women, exclusive breastfeeding and the scaling up of the treatment of severe wasting among young children. To reach these four targets, the world needs $70 billion over 10 years to invest in high-impact nutrition-specific interventions. This investment would have enormous benefits: 65 million cases of stunting and 265 million cases of anemia in women would be prevented in 2025 as compared with the 2015 baseline. In addition, at least 91 million more children would be treated for severe wasting and 105 million additional babies would be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life over 10 years. Altogether, achieving these targets would avert at least 3.7 million child deaths. Every dollar invested in this package of interventions would yield between $4 and $35 in economic returns, making investing in early nutrition one of the best value-for-money development actions. Although some of the targets—especially those for reducing stunting in children and anemia in women—are ambitious and will require concerted efforts in financing, scale-up, and sustained commitment, recent experience from several countries suggests that meeting these targets is feasible. These investments in the critical 1000 day window of early childhood are inalienable and portable and will pay lifelong dividends – not only for children directly affected but also for us all in the form of more robust societies – that will drive future economies.
  • Publication
    At a Crossroads
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-02) Ferreyra, Maria Marta; Avitabile, Ciro; Botero Álvarez, Javier; Haimovich Paz, Francisco; Urzúa, Sergio
    Higher education (HE) has expanded dramatically in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since 2000. While access became more equitable, quality concerns remain. This volume studies the expansion, as well as HE quality, variety and equity in LAC. It investigates the expansion’s demand and supply drivers, and outlines policy implications.
  • Publication
    Options for Aged Care in China
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-11-20) Glinskaya, Elena; Feng, Zhanlian; Glinskaya, Elena; Feng, Zhanlian
    China is aging at an unprecedented rate. Improvements in life expectancy and the consequences of the decades-old family planning policy have led to a rapid increase in the elderly population. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, the proportion of older people age 65 and over will increase by about one-fourth by 2030, and the elderly will account for about one quarter of the total population by 2050. Population aging will not only pose challenges for elder care but also have an impact on the economy and all aspects of society (World Bank, 2016a). The government is aware of the need to develop an efficient and sustainable approach to aged care. To this end, the General Office of the State Council issued the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Aged Care Services in China and the Development Plan for a System of Social Services for the Aged (2011-2015). It is now in the process of formulating the 13th Five-Year National Plan on Aging, which will further elaborate and finalize the reform roadmap for 2016 to 2020. The Plan is expected to be finalized and launched by June 2016. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) helped draft these plans and is now leading the development of policy measures for the provision of social services for the elderly. This volume has been prepared to support the translation of the broad ideas on aged care provision expressed in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans and other government plans into reality and to help the government tackle the challenges described above. It strives to identify a policy framework that fits the Chinese context and can be put in place gradually. Specifically, it aims to provide an up-to-date understanding of the evolving aged care landscape in China; review international experiences in long-term care provision, financing, and quality assurance and assess their relevance to China’s current situation; discuss implications of current developments and trends for the future of aged care in China; and propose policy options based on available evidence and best practices.
  • Publication
    Transforming Karachi into a Livable and Competitive Megacity
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-02-27) World Bank
    With a population of 16 million, Karachi is the largest megacity in Pakistan. Despite being a large city that is home to many, it has seen a substantial decline in quality of life and economic competitiveness in recent decades. Basic service delivery is very poor, with very low indicators for water supply, sanitation, public transport and public spaces. Pollution levels are high, and the city is vulnerable to disasters and climate change. A highly complex political economy, institutional fragmentation, land contestation, crime and security issues and social exclusion exacerbate these issues and make city management challenging. The Karachi City Diagnostic and Transformation Strategy attempts to present detailed data on the economy, livability and key urban services of the city, by identifying and quantifying the requirements to bridge the services gap in the city. It also proposes pathways towards the transformation of Karachi into a more livable, inclusive and economically competitive city by outlining policy actions that the city can undertake. The first part of the report provides an in-depth review of Karachi and is organized into three themes focused on key aspects of city management: (i) city growth and prosperity – discussing city economy, competitiveness, business environment and poverty; (ii) city livability – discussing urban and spatial planning, urban governance and municipal service delivery (water and sanitation, public transport and solid waste); and (iii) sustainability and inclusiveness – discussing the city’s long term resilience based on fiscal management, disaster resilience and climate change, and social inclusion. In each section, a diagnostic is provided on the issues, along with possible prioritized actions to resolve them. The second part of the report concludes by identifying four pillars for city transformation. These include: (i) building inclusive, coordinated and accountable institutions; (ii) greening Karachi for sustainability and resilience; (iii) leveraging on the city's economic, social and environmental assets; and (iv) creating a smart city through smart policies and technology.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Poland : Saving for Growth and Prosperous Aging
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank
    The recent financial crisis has emphasized the role of national saving for rising economic growth and promoting development. Since the crisis began, global markets have experienced deteriorating public finances, household deleveraging, differing speeds of recovery, and eroding confidence in financial systems, all of which have deterred long-term investments. In the context of this new growth agenda, the present report analyzes the trends and determinants of domestic saving in Poland and provides policy options for increasing saving, particularly over the long term. Improved national saving provides funding for a country to take advantage of more investment opportunities. From the microeconomic perspective, increasing national saving will support incomes in an aging society, helping address the issue of the adequacy of retirement incomes. However, increasing national saving involves also some costs, which should be carefully balanced against the potential benefits. In this context, the report is divided into seven chapters. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents recent trends and determinants of growth in Poland, as well as challenges for its long-term prospects. Chapter three discusses the determinants of and influences on the level of private saving. Chapter four complements this discussion by portraying the government's role in determining the level of saving in the economy. Chapter five discusses the importance of saving for the financial sector, its ability to promote saving, and instruments that may be promoted to meet the needs of Polish savers. Chapter six quantifies the impact of potential changes to the main determinants of saving on performance of saving and economic growth in Poland. Finally, chapter seven focuses on policy analysis.
  • Publication
    Pension Reform in Southeastern Europe : Linking to Labor and Financial Market Reforms
    (World Bank, 2009) MacKellar, Landis; Holzmann, Robert; Repansek, Jana
    The reform of public pension systems and, more generally, the review of old-age income support are on the reform agenda worldwide. The reform discussion is more intense in countries where population aging is well advanced, including the member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), much of Latin America, China, Russia, and the former transition economies of Southeastern Europe (SEE). But developing countries in the global South are also awakening to the challenges of aging and old-age income support in view of changing family structures, urbanization, and migration. Over 80 percent of the increase in the numbers of persons age 65 and older up to 2050 will take place in countries with current per capita incomes of US$1,000 and below. Whereas the North grew rich before becoming old, the South risks becoming old before becoming rich. The remainder of the chapter attempts to substantiate this point. The next section briefly describes aging and its fiscal implications in the light of demographic developments in the countries of Southeastern Europe. There follows an outline of the drivers of pension reform that go beyond population aging and have to be understood when choosing among reform options. Subsequent sections take up recent international reform trends and lessons and underline key points concerning the labor market and financial market reforms needed to support pension reform. The chapter ends with some concluding remarks.
  • Publication
    A Short Note on the ATP Fund of Denmark
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-02) Vittas, Dimitri
    The Danish ATP (Arbejdmarkedets TillaegsPension or Labor Market Supplementary Pension) fund is a public pension fund that was created in 1964 to complement the universal pension benefit that is financed from general tax revenues and is paid to all old-age residents. When it was created, participation in ATP was compulsory on most working people. But over the last decade or so compulsory coverage has been expanded to most recipients of transfer income. Contribution amounts are set in absolute terms, but are low relative to earnings (less than 1 percent of average earnings). ATP has benefited from scale economies and compulsory worker participation and has been able to operate with high efficiency and low costs. Its investment performance has been uneven over the years, reflecting the applied investment policies and rules as well as prevailing financial conditions. In recent years, it has been a leader among Danish pension institutions in adopting innovative investment policies and has enjoyed an enviable record of high investment returns and low operating costs. In addition, it has long offered deferred group annuities with guaranteed benefits and periodic bonuses (with profits policies). However, ATP also suffers from several weaknesses and shortcomings. It has a cumbersome governance structure, rooted in labor market relations and the role of social partners, while its group annuities have been based on rather 'idiosyncratic' risk-sharing arrangements. Nevertheless, it took the lead in using long-dated interest-rate swaps in euro markets and recently created a department that specializes in hedging its pension liabilities. And it is in the process of adopting a new plan for guaranteed benefits that aims to enhance the management of both investment and longevity risks.
  • Publication
    General Trends in Competition Policy and Investment Regulation in Mandatory Defined Contribution Markets in Latin America
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-09) Dayoub, Mariam; Lasagabaster, Esperanza
    Following Chile's pension reform in 1981, a wave of multi-pillar pension reforms took place in Latin America (LAC). Their implementation has revealed new policy challenges. To shed light on these issues, this paper reviews the structure and performance of mandatory DC pillars in LAC. The review highlights three important points. First, it suggests overall positive outcomes from reforms in the LAC countries that implemented multi-pillar pension systems. There is, however, scope for increasing efficiency. Second, management fees have declined but remain relatively high whereas decreases in operational costs have only been partially passed through to consumers reflecting inadequate competition. Limits on transfers and related measures have been ineffective in curtailing management fees but created new barriers to entry. In recent years, a few countries in LAC introduced or are in the process of introducing a combination of new measures that focus more directly on the two root causes of inadequate competition - the inelasticity of demand to fees and selective elimination of barriers to entry by facilitating unbundling of services. These new measures show some promise. Third, the paper's review indicates that a greater diversification of pension fund portfolios in LAC appears to be necessary. Portfolio concentration owes to the adoption of strict quantitative investment regulations, underdeveloped capital markets and volatile macroeconomic environments. A gradual relaxation of these restrictions is now in progress in several countries. Regulators have become more conscious of the costs imposed by such regulations and macroeconomic conditions have improved. Greater overseas diversification seems inevitable given the development stage of local capital markets.
  • Publication
    Pension Institutions and Annuities in Denmark
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12) Andersen, Carsten; Skjodt, Peter
    This paper considers the overall structure of the Danish pension system, reviews the relative role of different types of pension institutions, and discusses their asset allocation strategies and investment performance. The paper also examines the regulation and supervision of providers of pension services, the growing reliance on risk-based supervision, and the application of the so-called contribution principle. The Danish pension system includes a modest universal social pension with a supplement for low-income pensioners and near universal participation in occupational and personal pensions that are primarily based on defined contribution plans. The annuity market is well developed: 50 percent of annual contributions are allocated to the purchase of deferred annuities, while immediate annuities are also purchased at or even after retirement. However, detailed comprehensive data on the rate of annuitization are lacking. Distinct features of the Danish pension system include the widespread use of profit participating contracts with minimum guaranteed benefits and regular provision of bonuses, covering both the accumulation and payout phases, and extensive use of group deferred annuity contracts. A new traffic light system with periodic stress testing has resulted in greater emphasis on asset liability matching and hedging strategies by pension institutions and a shift in investment policies in favor of foreign bonds and long-term swap contracts.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Republic of Djibouti - Pension System Reform : Strategic Note
    (Washington, DC, 2001-12) World Bank
    The Government of Djibouti has committed to reform its pension system in order to restore financial sustainability and improve management. To this end, it requested the World Bank to elaborate a pension reform strategy that identifies the major financial and institutional constraints facing the pension funds and explores restructuring options. This policy note summarizes the major diagnosis and policy recommendations of the study, reflecting comments from government officials and the Bank's technical experts during the internal review meeting held on March 15, 2001. In the case of Djibouti, a two-stage reform program is proposed. A first stage would concentrate on consolidating a modest pay-as-you-go system, and involve executing three major activities: 1) implementing institutional reforms to improve governance and management, and to generate efficiency gains that enhance service delivery and reduce administrative costs; 2) addressing short-term financial needs by normalizing government contributions, defining a plan to refinance government arrears, and introducing a ceiling for the replacement rate in the regime for parliamentarians; and 3) improving the medium-term financial situation of the pension funds. A second stage of the reform program would focus on merging the Social Protection Organism (OPS) and the National Pensions Fund (CNR); and introducing/reinforcing incentives to promote contractual savings.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Reform and Backlash to Reform : Economic Effects of Ageing and Retirement Policy
    (2010-11-01) Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard; Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
    Using a stochastic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper studies (i) the effects on both extensive and intensive labor supply responses to changes in fertility rates, and (ii) the potential of a retirement reform to mitigate the effects of fertility changes on labor supply. In order to neutralize the effects on effective labor supply of a fertility decline, a retirement reform, designed to increase labor supply at the extensive margin, is found to simultaneously reduce labor supply at the intensive margin. This backlash to retirement reform requires the statutory retirement age to increase more than proportionally to fertility changes in order to compensate for endogenous responses of the intensity of labor supply. The robustness of this result is checked against alternative model specifications and calibrations relevant to an economic region such as Europe.
  • Publication
    Bulgaria : Ensuring Pension System Sustainability
    (Washington, DC, 2009-09) World Bank
    The report, Bulgaria: Ensuring Pension System Sustainability Pension Reform Policy Note was written in September 2009. The report states that the Bulgarian pension system has undergone significant and well designed reform in 2000-2003. However, attempts to restore financial self-sustainability of the pension scheme were not as successful as envisaged. Projections presented in this note suggest that recently introduced government contributions are insufficient to achieve financial sustainability and introduce growing distortions into the financing system. Additional reforms to the system will be needed to meet these challenges. Among the suggested reforms are; ensuring automatic sustainable pension indexation mechanism free of ad hoc interventions; attempting to further increase effective retirement age by reviewing early retirement rules and eliminating gender differences in retirement ages. A continued slow increase of retirement ages for both genders should also be considered; further strengthen disability certification processes to respond to likely increase in disability claims due to the economic downturn; strengthen long term financial planning, including revision of contribution rates which would be more compatible with long-term fiscal sustainability, and consider an exit strategy for formalized Government contribution to the scheme.
  • Publication
    Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil
    (2011-01-01) Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
    This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of population aging in Brazil. Three alternative yet complementary methodologies are adopted, and depending on policy responses to the fiscal implications of aging, there are two main findings: First, saving rates could increase and not necessarily fall as a consequence of aging in Brazil -- thus contradicting conventional views. Second, lifetime wealth across generations could increase -- as capital deepening generates a second demographic dividend. Two policy responses to aging are emphasized: First, a structural policy response of linking mandatory retirement (or entitlement) ages to increasing life expectancy would boost labor supply and reduce the fiscal costs of aging. Second, in terms of preferable parametric policy responses, the second demographic dividend will be promoted to the highest extent by keeping taxes and debt unchanged while allowing public pensions to adjust downward. Such a policy response would keep pensions from further crowding out private saving -- thus balancing capital accumulation with intergenerational income distribution. In conclusion, Brazil will not necessarily experience a fall in saving and growth, but if government policies are appropriately, adequately, and timely formulated, population aging is likely to lead to substantial capital deepening and increases in lifetime income, wealth, and welfare.