Publication: The Effect of Biodiesel Policies on World Biodiesel and Oilseed Prices
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Date
2014-07
ISSN
0140-9883
Published
2014-07
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Abstract
A theoretical and empirical model is developed to analyze the effect of a biodiesel mandate, a tax exemption (tax credit) and an exogenous diesel price shock on world soybean and canola markets. The jointness in crushing oil and meal from the oilseed reduces the size of the link between biodiesel and oilseed prices. A diesel price shock with a mandate results in a smaller change in oilseed prices compared with a tax exemption. Higher diesel prices increase biodiesel prices under a tax exemption but lower them with a blend mandate. When both canola and soybeans are used to produce biodiesel, an increase in the diesel price leads to higher canola prices, but the effect on soybean prices is ambiguous and depends on relative elasticities of meal demand and canola supply because canola produces more oil than soybeans.
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Publication The Effect of Biodiesel Policies on World Oilseed Markets and Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05)Using an empirical model, this study provides some insights into the functioning of the oilseed-biodiesel-diesel market complex in a large country that determines the biodiesel price, reflecting market equilibrium changes resulting from volatility in the crude oil price. Oilseed crushing produces joint products -- oil and meal -- and this weakens the link between the biodiesel and oilseed feedstock prices. Higher crude oil prices increase biodiesel prices if biofuel benefits from a fuel tax exemption, but lower them with a blending mandate (minimum biofuel content requirement in marketed fuel). When both canola and soybeans are used to produce biodiesel, an increase in the crude oil price leads to higher canola prices, but the effect on soybean prices is ambiguous and depends on relative elasticities of meal demand and canola supply because canola produces more oil than soybeans. An oil price shock with a blending mandate results in a smaller change in oilseed prices compared with a fuel tax exemption. Jumps in world crude oil prices have differential impacts on commodity prices and welfare in developing countries, depending on which policy determines the biodiesel price in OECD countries.Publication Should Zambia Produce Biodiesel from Soybeans? Some Insights from an Empirical Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06)Facing a huge fiscal burden due to imports of entire petroleum despite the availability of a surplus of agricultural land to produce biofuels, Zambia, a country in Sub-Saharan Africa, has recently introduced a biofuel mandate. But, a number of questions, particularly those related to the economics of biofuels, have not been fully investigated yet. Using an empirical model this study analyzes the economics of meeting the biodiesel mandate through soybean feedstock. The study finds that meeting the biodiesel mandate with biodiesel from soybeans would reduce social welfare because the country's soybean imports would cost more than the expected reduction in petroleum imports. However, if Zambia increases its domestic soybean supply along with its capacity to convert soybean to biodiesel, as well as oil yield, soybean based biodiesel is likely to be welfare-beneficial, even if biodiesel prices are above diesel prices. The study also finds that under current market prices and transportation costs and constraints, the same amount of biodiesel can be produced most cost-effectively with a tax exemption. A blend mandate would be less cost effective, while a biodiesel production subsidy represents the least efficient policy option.Publication Second-Generation Biofuels : Economics and Policies(2010-08-01)Recent increases in production of crop-based (or first-generation) biofuels have engendered increasing concerns over potential conflicts with food supplies and land protection, as well as disputes over greenhouse gas reductions. This has heightened a sense of urgency around the development of biofuels produced from non-food biomass (second-generation biofuels). This study reviews the economic potential and environmental implications of production of second-generation biofuels from a variety of various feedstocks. Although second-generation biofuels could significantly contribute to the future energy supply mix, cost is a major barrier to increasing commercial production in the near to medium term. Depending on various factors, the cost of second-generation (cellulosic) ethanol can be two to three times as high as the current price of gasoline on an energy equivalent basis. The cost of biodiesel produced from microalgae, a prospective feedstock, is many times higher than the current price of diesel. Policy instruments for increasing biofuels use, such as fiscal incentives, should be based on the relative merits of different types of biofuels.Publication The Impacts of Biofuel Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply : A Global CGE Assessment(2010-12-01)This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.Publication World Oil Price and Biofuels : A General Equilibrium Analysis(2011-06-01)The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4 percent in 2020 from 2.4 percent in 2009. A doubling of oil price in 2020 from its baseline level, or a 230 percent increase from the 2009 level, would increase the global biofuel penetration in 2020 to 12.6 percent. The penetration of biofuels is highly sensitive to the substitution possibility between biofuels and their fossil fuel counterparts. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through diversion of food commodities and cropland toward the production of biofuels.
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