Publication: Use of Catastrophe Risk Models in Assessing Sovereign Food Security for Risk Transfer
Loading...
Date
2015-07
ISSN
Published
2015-07
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data availability as an enabler of catastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by a description of the framework of catastrophe crop models for droughts, representing the peril for which catastrophe models have had the most success. The integration of the output of catastrophe crop models with a food security vulnerability assessment model is described next. Recent advances in analytical modeling of various types of shocks in assessing food security are described but the operational use of these analytical models in the development of food security assessment for risk transfer is seen to be limited for now because of the complexity of these analytical models. The food security vulnerability modeling in the African Risk Capacity, ARC, model is then described as showing a practical solution to the complex problem of assessing food security via a model. Lastly, the challenges faced in risk transfer of sovereign food security risks are discussed.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Sharma, Mohan; Hohl, Roman. 2015. Use of Catastrophe Risk Models in Assessing Sovereign Food Security for Risk Transfer. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7360. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22233 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication Geopolitical Fragmentation and Friendshoring(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-26)This paper examines the relationship between geopolitical fragmentation and friendshoring of foreign investments over time, countries, and sectors. The analysis uses comprehensive data on foreign direct investments covering greenfield projects, mergers and acquisitions, and stocks of affiliates, as well as data on four alternative measures of geopolitical distance between countries. The gravity estimations suggest that, first, geopolitical differences have a negative effect on foreign investments and the magnitude has heightened in the post-pandemic period compared to a decade ago. Second, it is primarily the companies from advanced Western economies whose foreign investment decisions are increasingly shaped by friendshoring forces. Finally, the paper shows that friendshoring is not only confined to strategic industries, implying that allocations of foreign direct investments may not solely reflect national security or resilience considerations.Publication Soaring Food Prices Threaten Recent Economic Gains in the EU(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-02)The surge in food prices following the 2021 economic rebound has become a significant concern for households, particularly low-income ones, in Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania. Food price inflation, which surpasses general inflation rates, risks worsening poverty and food insecurity in these countries. This paper explores the distributional impacts of rising food prices and the effectiveness of government response measures. Low-income households, who allocate a larger share of their income to food, are disproportionately affected and are struggling to cope with unexpected expenses, leading to increased difficulties in accessing proper nutrition. Simulations indicate that rising food prices contribute to higher poverty rates and greater income inequality, especially among vulnerable populations. They also suggest that the main poverty-targeted social assistance schemes offer critical support for the extreme poor, but expanding both coverage and benefits is vital to shield all at-risk individuals. Targeted policies that balance immediate relief with long-term resilience-building are essential to addressing the challenges posed by escalating food prices.Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Multisectoral Approaches to Addressing Malnutrition in Bangladesh : The Role of Agriculture and Microcredit(Washington, DC, 2008-04)The objective of this study is to demonstrate how the interaction between sectors can be improved to increase the effectiveness of sectoral interventions, and how the interventions in the agricultural sector and microfinance can be used to improve nutritional outcomes. The study will examine what has been done to improve nutrition through interventions in the agriculture sector and microcredit programmes in Bangladesh and around the world, how they were implemented and to the extent possible, what the impact of those interventions was. The populations of primary concern for this study are infants, children and women of childbearing age, the group that is the target of many of the millennium development goals. The study will also pay special attention to the extent to which programmes and policies are successful at reaching poor and vulnerable groups in society and thus, reduce inequalities in nutrition. The introduction provides the background and rationale for this work. Chapter two assesses the status of malnutrition in Bangladesh, provides a brief history of policies and programmes to address malnutrition in the country and lays out the case for a multi-sectoral response to malnutrition. Chapter three reviews the potential role of interventions in the agriculture sector, including existing evidence on the impact of such interventions and institutional and other challenges to enhancing the impact. Chapter four provides a similar review of the role of microcredit programmes in improving nutrition outcomes. Recommendations on using multi-sectoral approaches to improve nutrition in Bangladesh are the subject of chapter five.Publication From Agriculture to Nutrition(Washington, DC, 2007)The report seeks to analyze what has been learned about how agricultural interventions influence nutrition outcomes in low-and middle-income countries, focusing on the target populations of the millennium development goals-people living on less than a dollar a day. It also sets out to synthesize lessons from past efforts to improve the synergies between agriculture and nutrition outcomes. The report identifies a number of developments in agriculture and nutrition that have transformed the context in which nutrition is affected by agriculture. The relationship between agriculture and human nutrition is far more complex than the relationship between food production and food consumption or the economic relationship between food supply and food demand. Expanding agriculture's purview and capacity to embrace those contributing factors and determinants of nutrition that are traditionally the province of other disciplines or improving agriculture's interface with other, nonagricultural sectors, suggest themselves as possible ways forward. The limitations of production-focused agricultural programs and interventions in delivering improved nutrition impacts have been recognized by some in the agricultural community for decades. In the early 1980s a number of international development agencies undertook programs that sought to orient agricultural production to nutrition-related objectives, and over time a substantial body of literature developed around the analysis of the programs' results.Publication Improving Food Security in Arab Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009)This joint working paper lays out a rationale and strategic framework for improving food security and managing food-price shocks in the Arab countries. The paper does not provide country specific policy and project recommendations. Such recommendations will follow from the country by country application of the framework, taking into account each country's political and cultural preferences, resource endowments, and risk tolerance. In 2007 and the first half of 2008, a sharp rise in agricultural commodity and food prices triggered grave concerns about food security, malnutrition and increased poverty throughout the world. While the threat of a prolonged food-price shock receded with falling energy and commodity prices and a weakening global economy in the second half of 2008, many factors underlying the volatility in food prices appear here to stay and will require careful management if the world is to avoid future food-price shocks. This paper suggests three critical strategies that, together, can serve as pillars to help offset future vulnerability to price shocks: a) strengthen safety nets, provide people with better access to family planning services, and promote education; b) enhance the food supply provided by domestic agriculture and improve rural livelihoods by addressing lagging productivity growth through increased investment in research and development; and c) reduce exposure to market volatility by improving supply chain efficiency and by more effectively using financial instruments to hedge risk.Publication Enhancing Food Security in Afghanistan : Private Markets and Public Policy Options(Washington, DC, 2005-08)This report analyzes some key aspects of food security, namely production, trade, markets and food aid at the national level, and consumption at the household level. In doing so it aspires to make a contribution to the on-going work in Afghanistan regarding the attainment of the poverty and hunger Millennium Development Goal. The major findings of the report can be summarized as follows: Food security (at the national level) does not necessarily require national self-sufficiency in wheat or other food staples, as long as the country has access to international markets. Rather, diversification into legal high-value crops and livestock products may be the most effective means of increasing food security, by generating foreign exchange and raising the incomes and purchasing power of the rural poor. In spite of very difficult conditions, wheat markets in Afghanistan have performed fairly well and private sector international trade has helped to stabilize supply and prices. Therefore, further developing the infrastructure and institutions to support wheat markets and facilitating private sector trade is called for and will enhance food security. At the household level, food insecurity in Afghanistan is largely caused by inadequate access to food resulting from low household incomes. For most of Afghanistan, where availability of food is not a constraint, increasing cash incomes is the more efficient means of enhancing food security of the poor. Development of both private and public capacity for data collection and analysis is a high priority for effective formulation, assessment and implementation of food policies.Publication Learning from World Bank History : Agriculture and Food-Based Approaches for Addressing Malnutrition(Washington, DC, 2014-06)The purpose of this paper is to provide forward-looking recommendations for linking agriculture and nutrition by looking back over the 40 years since both nutrition and rural development began at the Bank in 1973. This paper sets out to explore whether what is currently being suggested has been attempted in the past; in what circumstances, with what sort of support or commitment, by what actors, and with what results. Throughout, the World Bank is a case study set within the larger development aid architecture due to its role as one of the largest actors in agriculture and nutrition investments in developing countries around the nutrition initially was housed in the Population department (1972-75), and then moved to Agriculture and Rural Development (1975-79). Since 1979 it has been housed with health and other human development world. The initial motivation was to showcase the depth of historical resources available in the World Bank Group Archives, and to demonstrate how they can be used to inform current practice. Several lessons learned primarily from the World Bank experience are applicable to the Bank's current commitment to nutrition-sensitive agriculture, as well as to the development community at large, that is tackling the same agenda.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28)Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication MIGA Annual Report 2021(Washington, DC: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2021-10-01)In FY21, MIGA issued 5.2 billion US Dollars in new guarantees across 40 projects. These projects are expected to provide 784,000 people with new or improved electricity service, create over 14,000 jobs, generate over 362 million US Dollars in taxes for the host countries, and enable about 1.3 billion US Dollars in loans to businesses—critical as countries around the world work to keep their economies afloat. Of the 40 projects supported during FY21, 85 percent addressed at least one of the strategic priority areas, namely, IDA-eligible countries (lower-income), fragile and conflict affected situations (FCS), and climate finance. As of June 2021, MIGA has also issued 5.6 billion US Dollars of guarantees through our COVID-19 Response Program and anticipate an expansion to 10–12 billion US Dollars over the coming years, a testament to the countercyclical role that MIGA can play in mobilizing private investment in the face of the pandemic. A member of the World Bank Group, MIGA is committed to strong development impact and promoting projects that are economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable. MIGA helps investors mitigate the risks of restrictions on currency conversion and transfer, breach of contract by governments, expropriation, and war and civil disturbance, as well as offering credit enhancement on sovereign obligations.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.