Publication: World Bank Research Digest, Vol. 6(3)
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2012-05
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2014-12-24
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In this issue: measuring financial inclusion; focus aid effectiveness; good jobs for South Asia; retirement behavior among China's older workers; do middle classes bring institutional reforms?; pharmaceutical patents and prices in India; and can we trust shoestring evaluations?
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“World Bank. 2012. World Bank Research Digest, Vol. 6(3). © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20960 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Population Aging and Economic Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)Between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in every country in the world. Although labor force participation rates are projected to decline from 2000 to 2040 in most countries, due mainly to changes in their age distributions, labor force- to-population ratios will actually increase in most countries. This is because low fertility will cause lower youth dependency that is more than enough to offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages at which labor force participation is lower. The increase in labor-force-to-population ratios will be further magnified by increases in age-specific rates of female labor force participation associated with fertility declines. These factors suggest that economic growth will continue apace, notwithstanding the phenomenon of population aging. For the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the declines projected to occur in both labor force participation and labor-force-to-population ratios suggest modest declines in the pace of economic growth. But even these effects can be mitigated by behavioral responses to population aging-in the form of higher savings for retirement, greater labor force participation, and increased immigration from labor-surplus to labor-deficit countries. Countries that can facilitate such changes may be able to limit the adverse consequences of population aging. When seen through the lens of several mitigating considerations, there is reason to think that population aging in developed countries may have less effect than some have predicted. In addition, policy responses related to retirement incentives, pension funding methods, investments in health care of the elderly, and immigration can further ameliorate the effect of population aging on economic growth.Publication Mexico 2006-2012 : Creating the Foundations for Equitable Growth(Washington, DC, 2007-06)The chapters, or "policy notes," of this report, creating the foundations for equitable growth in Mexico 2006-2012, are dedicated to trying to solve parts of the puzzle as to why Mexico's level of economic development has failed to approach the level of its NAFTA trading partners, or the level of a typical OECD member state. Each chapter of this new report uses the 2000 policy notes as a reference. In this report, the authors have tried to be selective on the issues, and they explored multi-sector issues by joining themes such as education and labor markets in one chapter, or health and old age security in a single chapter. In this overview, the authors set the stage by outlining the common themes and messages that emerge from the eleven chapters of this report. There are three themes that are highlighted: 1) Mexico can do better; 2) Mexico is between two worlds and there are two worlds within Mexico. Mexico's standards of living, human and physical capital and institutions are all quite advanced compared to low income countries or compared to lower middle income countries in Latin America. On the other hand, Mexico lags far behind OECD averages. Within Mexico, there is a further dichotomy due to the high degree of inequality across individuals and across regions; 3) Policies for equitable growth are the answer. In the chapters of this report, it is emphasized that institutional change is the key to improving the regulation and performance of both the public and private sectors. The authors also highlight that restructuring government spending in a variety of sectors-in particular, establishing a more progressive allocation of spending-would be the key to initiating a phase of more growth and more equitable growth. Finally, they note that despite progress in improving economic and environmental stability in Mexico, there is still a remaining agenda of reform to assure sustainability.Publication Sri Lanka : Addressing the Needs of an Aging Population(Washington, DC, 2008-06)This study is about the key issues that will have to be addressed in order to successfully avert serious problems, or even crisis, as Sri Lanka's inevitable population aging unfolds. The four main chapters of this report focus on these four critical areas in turn. The second chapter examines living arrangements, intergenerational transfers as well as the respect and authority old people enjoy. One of the biggest problems facing old people is lack of independent financial sources, so the third chapter provides an analysis of formal income support programs including pensions and relevant safety net programs. The fourth chapter evaluates the health status of old people and how well placed the healthcare system is to cope with an aging population. Finally, the fifth chapter analyzes the implications of an aging labor force. These chapters are preceded by an overview chapter that presents demographic trends that have contributed to population aging and sketches a portrait of the aging in Sri Lanka.Publication Some Economic Consequences of Global Aging : A Discussion Note for the World Bank(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-12)The note describes the importance of population aging world-wide, clarifying its prevalence among middle- and low-income countries, which suggests that many developing countries are getting old before they are growing rich. The note then asks in what way population aging is an economic problem and what are the specific challenges facing developing countries in this process. The note argues against the common, time-bomb perception?, and clarifies how a simplistic extrapolation from the impact of aging on single programs such as public pensions gives a misleading impression about the more general macroeconomic consequences of population aging, where numerous elements contribute to a more nuanced result. The note briefly discusses various topics of importance in the population aging debate, including: intergenerational flows, social contracts, the risk management element of old-age policies, and the impact of aging on health care costs. The note seeks to share a number of counterintuitive or simply non-intuitive facts, including: (i) the large impact of declines in fertility on population aging (often more important than increases in longevity); (ii) the impact of increased life expectancy on working age populations (often larger than among old age populations); (iii) the positive impact of aging on capital intensity; (iv) the need to include education in assessments of intergenerational equity (these often simply look at who pays for old-age pensions and health services); and (v) the role of long-term care programs as insurance for risks faced by young adults.Publication Determinants and Consequences of High Fertility(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-06)In the six decades since 1950, fertility has fallen substantially in developing countries. Even so, high fertility, defined as five or more births per woman over the reproductive career, characterizes 33 countries. Twenty-nine of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. High fertility poses health risks for children and their mothers, detracts from human capital investment, slows economic growth, and exacerbates environmental threats. These and other consequences of high fertility are reviewed in the first half of this paper. Recognizing these detrimental consequences motivates two inter-related questions that are addressed in the second half of the paper: Why does high fertility persist? And what can be done about it? The high-fertility countries lag in many development indicators, as reflected for example in their rate of progress toward achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These countries have also received less development assistance for population and reproductive health than countries more advanced in their transitions to lower fertility, and the assistance they did receive increased only marginally from 1995 to 2007, a period during which commitments to both health and HIV/AIDS rose substantially.
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Publication Comoros Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18)The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.Publication Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22)Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.