Publication: Public Expenditure and Growth
Loading...
Published
2007-10
ISSN
Date
2012-06-06
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Given that public spending will have a positive impact on GDP if the benefits exceed the marginal cost of public funds, the present paper deals with measuring costs and benefits of public spending. The paper discusses one cost seldom considered in the literature and in policy debates, namely, the volatility derived from additional public spending. The paper identifies a relationship between public spending volatility and consumption volatility, which implies a direct welfare loss to society. This loss is substantial in developing countries, estimated at 8 percent of consumption. If welfare losses due to volatility are this sizeable, then measuring the benefits of public spending is critical. Gauging benefits based on macro aggregate data requires three caveats: a) considering of the impact of the funding (taxation) required for the additional public spending; b) differentiating between investment and capital formation; c) allowing for heterogeneous response of output to different types of capital and differences in network development. It is essential to go beyond country-specificity to project-level evaluation of the benefits and costs of public projects. From the micro viewpoint, the rate of return of a project must exceed the marginal cost of public funds, determined by tax levels and structure. Credible evaluations require microeconomic evidence and careful specification of counterfactuals. On this, the impact evaluation literature and methods play a critical role. From individual project evaluation, the analyst must contemplate the general equilibrium impacts. In general, the paper advocates for project evaluation as a central piece of any development platform. By increasing the efficiency of public spending, the government can permanently increase the rate of productivity growth and, hence, affect the growth rate of GDP.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Herrera, Santiago. 2007. Public Expenditure and Growth. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4372. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7366 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Budget Rules and Resource Booms : A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-07)This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze and derive simple budget rules in the face of volatile public revenue from natural resources in a low-income country like Niger. The simulation results suggest three policy lessons or rules of thumb. When a resource price change is positive and temporary, the best strategy is to save the revenue windfall in a sovereign fund, and use the interest income from the fund to raise citizens' consumption over time. This strategy is preferred to investing in public capital domestically, even when private investment benefits from an enhanced public capital stock. Domestic investment raises the prices of domestic goods, leaving less money for government to transfer to households; public investment is not 100 percent effective in raising output. In the presence of a negative temporary resource price change, however, the best strategy is to cut public investment. This strategy dominates other methods, such as trimming government transfers to households, which reduces consumption directly, or borrowing, which incurs an interest premium as debt rises. In the presence of persistent (positive and negative) shocks, the best strategy is a mix of public investment and saving abroad in a balanced regime that provides a natural insurance against both types of price shocks. The combination of interest income from the sovereign fund, transfers to households, and output growth brought about by public investment provides the best protective mechanism to smooth consumption over time in response to changing resource prices.Publication Georgia Public Expenditure Review : Strategic Issues and Reform Agenda(Washington, DC, 2014-06-11)Generating growth and creating jobs within a sustainable fiscal framework is Georgia s biggest macroeconomic challenge. Although Georgia registered rapid growth of 5.7 percent a year during 2010-13, unemployment remains high at 15 percent. New growth companies, especially in tourism and other service sectors, did not generate enough formal or even informal employment. Fiscal policy played a crucial role in Georgia s recent growth performance with a fiscal stimulus driven post-crisis recovery which increased deficit and debt levels followed by fiscal consolidation during 2010-12 when recovery took hold. The weak execution of the budget in 2013 and policy uncertainty were largely responsible for the growth slowdown during the year. Tackling the growth and jobs agenda in Georgia will require significant investment in human and physical capital and the government has a large role to play here. Additional spending, where it is needed, should be undertaken within the fiscal consolidation agenda of the government, designed to help restore the macroeconomic buffers needed to secure stability and sustain confidence in the future. The change in government in 2012 marked a shift in fiscal policy with prioritization of recurrent social expenditures over capital spending, thereby, increasing budget rigidity. During 2012-13, the government raised the benefit levels under the targeted social assistance (TSA) and pensions and introduced universal health care (UHC). As a result, the fiscal deficit is likely to increase from 2.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to 3.7 percent in 2014. Over the medium term, an aging population and the need to improve health outcomes and coverage of the poor in social assistance programs will keep social expenditures high at more than 9 percent of GDP. The share of capital expenditures will level off, meanwhile. Such an outcome will reduce the government s flexibility in trimming current expenditures in the future.Publication Economy-Wide Impact of Oil Discovery in Ghana(Washington, DC, 2009-11-30)Ghana's oil will start to flow in 2011, maybe even before, and most of its known reserves will be extracted in the immediate years after. The promise of oil generates expectations of all sorts, the more so as Ghana currently grapples with a macroeconomic crisis of significant proportions. This overview discusses the Ghana-specific nature of these challenges and explores possible options to address them. In doing so, it builds on seven thematic chapters which look at different aspects of the question: (1) oil facts, (2) political economy, (3) public financial management, (4) infrastructure, (5) private sector development, (6) agriculture, and (7) poverty. While the overview tries to bring together the findings of these different chapters, further details and discussions on each of these topics can be found in o f the chapters themselves. It concludes that while oil revenue will not be large enough to radically transform Ghana, it could, if improperly managed, impose enough stress on non-oil sectors to severely undermine Ghana's medium term development prospects. Hence the huge premium and responsibilities put on Ghana's successive authorities to wisely manage the oil wealth to promote the development of the non-oil sectors.Publication Georgia - Public Expenditure Review : Managing Expenditure Pressures for Sustainability and Growth(Washington, DC, 2012-11)Economic growth has rebounded strongly in Georgia during 2010-12 and commendable fiscal consolidation has been implemented, although considerable medium-term macro-fiscal challenges remain. This public expenditure review (PER) considers possible sources of expenditure pressure that may affect the fiscal consolidation program and suggests options to manage them. This PER presents a number of options for consideration to manage fiscal consolidation, which can contribute toward greater selectivity in capital expenditures, enhanced sustainability of the road investment program, and containing medium-term social expenditure pressures. The rest of this synthesis report is in five chapters. Chapter first summarizes the macroeconomic context and assesses trade-offs associated in balancing the overall composition of public expenditures. The second and third chapters illustrate policy options and implications associated with containing social expenditure pressures and improving effectiveness of health expenditures, respectively. Chapter fourth reviews the international experience in strengthening capital budgeting and provides options for consideration for Georgia. Finally, the fifth chapter discusses options associated with rebalancing road sector expenditures.Publication Public Policy and Industrial Transformation in the Process of Development(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013-04)This paper studies the role of public policy in promoting industrial transformation from an imitationbased, low-skill economy to an innovation-based, high-skill economy, where technological progress now occurs through the domestic invention of ideas. Industrial transformation is measured by changes in an index of industrial structure, defined as the ratio of the variety of imitation- to innovation-based intermediate goods. A key mechanism through which productivity increases initially in both the imitation and innovation sectors is through a knowledge externality associated with learning by doing in the imitation sector. The process of industrialization increases the demand for high-skill labor, inducing individuals to invest in education. The model also emphasizes the distinction between basic or core infrastructure, which promotes imitation, and advanced infrastructure, which promotes innovation. A calibrated version for a low-income country is used to perform several policy experiments, including an increase in investment in infrastructure, a reduction in the cost of training, and improved enforcement of property rights.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Transfer Pricing and Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016)Recent years have seen unprecedented public scrutiny over the tax practices of Multinational Enterprise (MNE) groups. Tax policy and administration concerning international transactions, aggressive tax planning, and tax avoidance have become an issue of extensive national and international debate in developed and developing countries alike. Within this context, transfer pricing, historically a subject of limited specialist interest, has attained name recognition amongst a broader global audience that is concerned with equitable fiscal policy and sustainable development. Abusive transfer pricing practices are considered to pose major risk to the direct tax base of many countries and developing countries are particularly vulnerable because corporate tax tends to account for a larger share of their revenue. This handbook is part of the wider WBG engagement in supporting countries with Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM) by protecting their tax base and aims to cover all relevant aspects that have to be considered when introducing or strengthening transfer pricing regimes. The handbook provides guidance on analytical steps that can be taken to understand a country’s potential exposure to inappropriate transfer pricing (transfer mispricing) and outlines the main areas that require attention in the design and implementation of transfer pricing regimes. A discussion of relevant aspects of the legislative process, including the formulation of a transfer pricing policy, and the role and content of administrative guidance, is combined with the presentation of country examples on the practical application and implementation of the arm’s length principle and on running an effective transfer pricing audit program. Recognizing the importance of transfer pricing regulation and administration for the business environment and investor confidence, this handbook aims to balance the general objective of protecting a country’s tax base and raising additional revenue with investment climate considerations wherever appropriate.Publication The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01)The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has sharply reduced mobility and economic activity, disrupting the lives of people around the globe. This paper presents estimates on the early impact of the crisis on labor markets in 39 countries based on high-frequency phone survey data collected between April and July 2020. Workers in these countries experienced severe labor market disruptions following the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on simple averages across countries, 34 percent of the respondents reported stopping work, 20 percent of wage workers reported lack of payment for work performed, 9 percent reported job changes due to the pandemic, and 62 percent reported income loss in their household. Stopping work was more prevalent in the industrial and service sectors than in agriculture. Measures of work stoppage and income loss in the high-frequency phone survey are generally consistent with gross domestic product growth projections in Latin America and the Caribbean but not in Sub-Saharan Africa. This suggests that the survey data contribute new and important information on economic impacts in low-income countries.Publication EdTech in Developing Countries(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2021-08-02)The emergence of educational technology (“EdTech”) in developing countries has been received as a promising avenue to address some of the most challenging policy questions within educational systems. In this paper, I review and synthesize all existing studies with credible causal identification frameworks of EdTech interventions in developing countries. While other studies review the evidence for EdTech interventions in developed countries, there is currently no equivalent study for developing contexts, in spite of the rising number of studies being produced. I classify studies into four thematic categories based on the type of EdTech intervention analyzed: Access to technology; technology-enabled behavioral interventions; improvements to instruction; and self-led learning. I find that EdTech interventions centered around self-led learning and improvements to instruction are the most effective forms of EdTech at raising learning outcomes. Similarly, technology-enabled behavioral interventions are less promising for generating large effects but highly cost-effective given their typically low marginal costs. Although expanding access to technology alone is not sufficient to improve learning, it is a necessary first step for some other types of interventions. More broadly, the overall success of interventions rests on the thoughtful customization of the EdTech solution to the policy constraints at hand. Finally, EdTech interventions across all thematic areas can and should act as complements by leveraging their respective comparative advantages to address deficiencies within educational systems in developing countries.Publication Financial Inclusion and Economic Development(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-09)This paper reviews the impact of financial inclusion on economic development outcomes. It highlights the benefits of financial inclusion, including greater savings, improved resilience to economic shocks, and higher levels of economic empowerment, among others. It looks deeper into both the effects of financial inclusion on marginalized groups, like women and the poor, while also examining the impacts of different types of financial instruments, like digital payments and financial accounts. The paper further explores the role that government payment programs and regulatory actions can play in inducing greater financial inclusion, highlighting the need for more policies, products, and incentives to promote greater adoption of financial services for sustainable development.