Publication: Assessment of the Impact of the Crisis on New PPI Projects : Update Six
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Date
2010-05
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2010-05
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Investment commitments to new infrastructure projects with private participation (PPI projects) reaching closure in developing countries grew by 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the same period of 2008-and by 15 percent in 2009 as a whole. These growth rates indicate a strong recovery from the 45 percent drop in investment commitments in the second half of 2008 compared with the same period of 2007. But investment continued to grow selectively, concentrated in large energy projects in a few countries-Brazil, China, India, and Turkey. The crisis continues to affect new PPI activity. Some planned projects are still being delayed, restructured, or, to a lesser extent, canceled. Transport continues to be the most affected sector, Europe and Central Asia the most affected region, and low-income countries the most affected country income group. Despite the more difficult environment, developing country governments remain committed to their public-private partnership (PPP) programs, as confirmed by the number of new projects that were being tendered, awarded, or restructured in the fourth quarter of 2009. Commercial bank lending remains constrained, and the choices of investors and financiers continue to reflect the 'flight to quality.' For projects able to raise financing, the conditions are more stringent, with a higher cost of debt, lower debt/equity ratios, shorter tenors, and more conservative structures. But the impact of the crisis has varied across countries, depending on whether there is an active local financial market and whether the government has taken proactive measures to foster liquidity.
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“World Bank. 2010. Assessment of the Impact of the Crisis on New PPI Projects : Update Six. PPI Data Update; Note No. 36. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/10930 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Assessment of the Impact of the Crisis on New PPI Projects : Update 5(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-02)New private infrastructure activity in developing countries recovered selectively in the third quarter of 2009. This review of new PPI projects sheds some light on recent activity and on the short-term impact of the financial crisis. Projects reaching financial or contractual closure face more difficult financial market conditions. Local state-owned banks, as well as multilateral and bilateral agencies, continue to be key financiers, and infrastructure sponsors are looking for new sources of funding such as local financing. Projects continue to be delayed or, to a lesser extent, canceled. The rate of project closure varies across developing regions, with investment in the third quarter higher in South Asia, stable in Latin America and East Asia and Pacific, and lower in the other three. The rate also varies across country income groups, with investment in the third quarter higher in lower-middle-income countries, stable in upper-middle-income countries, and lower in low-income countries. Greenfield projects continue to show growth in investment (and debt raised), while concessions and divestitures show a decline. Developing countries continue to tender and award new PPI projects. In conclusion, PPI investments have recovered in only few economies. While these success stories have boosted the totals, the vast majority of developing countries remain severely affected by the crisis. If large projects (US$1 billion or more) were excluded, almost all developing regions would have seen investment decline in the first three quarters of 2009 compared with the same period of 2008. South Asia was the only exception, thanks to the high level of activity in India. Among sectors, energy is the only one where investment grew for all project sizes, thanks to the activity in new power plants. There is also evidence of new projects being postponed and canceled because of the financial crisis.Publication Assessment of the Impact of the Crisis on New PPI Projects : Update Five(Washington, DC, 2010-02)Investment commitments to infrastructure projects with private participation (Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) projects) reaching closure in developing countries grew by 22 percent in the third quarter of 2009, and by 10 percent in the first three quarters of the year, compared with the same periods of 2008. These growth rates indicate a strong recovery from the 54 percent decline in the second half of 2008 compared with the same period of 2007. But investment grew selectively, concentrated in large energy projects in a few countries: Brazil, India, and Turkey. The Russian Federation, by contrast, saw a sharp decline in investment as a result of the global financial crisis and the end of the RAO UES privatization program. If these four countries were excluded, investment in developing countries would have fallen by 49 percent in the third quarter of 2009, and by 5 percent in the first three quarters, compared with the same periods of 2008. Among sectors, energy was the only one with investment growth in 2009, thanks to activity in greenfield power plants. Across sectors, large projects (US$500 million or more) accounted for the investment growth. Private activity as measured by number of projects remained slower than before the full onset of the financial crisis. The number of projects reaching closure was 27 percent lower in the third quarter of 2009, and 10 percent lower in the first three quarters, than in the same periods of 2008. These trends suggest greater project selectivity. Indeed, the large projects that are reaching closure are characterized by strong economic and financial fundamentals and the backing of financially solid sponsors and governments.Publication Investment in New Private Infrastructure Projects in Developing Countries Slowed Down in the First Quarter of 2010(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-09)This review sheds some light on recent private participation in infrastructure (PPI) activity, the short-term impact of the financial crisis and its aftermath. Compared with the previous update on the impact of the crisis, this note incorporates two improvements: a larger sample size (1,080 projects, up from 965 in the previous update) over a longer period (from January 2008 to March 2010). The findings of the survey show that investment growth in PPI projects continues to be concentrated in the largest developing economies, particularly India. The remaining developing countries saw some investment recovery in the first quarter of 2010. However, it is too soon to assess whether this recovery will continue and reverse the trend of declining investment in these countries.Publication Investment in Energy Projects with Private Participation Remained at a Peak Level But Was Highly Concentrated in 2010(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-08)In 2010, 106 energy projects with private participation reached financial or contractual closure in 28 low- and middle-income countries, involving investment commitments of US$55.7 billion. In addition, energy projects implemented in 1990-2009 attracted new investment of US$14.2 billion, bringing total investment commitments to the energy sector to US$69.9 billion in 2010. Such level of activity represents a 4 percent drop by investment and a 25 percent decline by the number of projects from 2009. Private activity in energy remained close to a peak level in 2010. However, such activity was highly concentrated on a few countries. India alone attracted 54 percent of investment in the sector and 34 percent of new projects, and was the country that sustained investment in energy close to a peak level. If India were excluded, investment in energy in developing countries would have fallen by 50 percent in 2010 compared with 2009. In addition, the four top countries (adding Brazil, Russian Federation, and Turkey to the list) accounted for 77 percent of investment and 58 percent of new projects. By type of business, private activity remained highly concentrated on electricity generation projects, which accounted for 75 percent of investment and 82 percent of new projects in 2010.Publication Investment in New Private Infrastructure Projects in Developing Countries Slowed Down in the First Quarter of 2010(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-09)Investment commitments to new infrastructure projects with private participation (PPI projects) reaching closure in developing countries fell by 25 percent in the first quarter of 2010 compared with the same quarter of 2009. The absence of unusually large projects (US$4 billion or more), such as those that reached closure in the first quarter of 2009, explains the investment decline. If those projects were excluded, investment would have grown 17 percent in the first quarter of 2010 compared with the same quarter in 2009. New PPI activity was concentrated in India, which accounted for more than half of investment in the first quarter of 2010. Three other large economies (Brazil, China, and Turkey) saw lower investment in this quarter than in the same quarter of 2009. The remaining developing countries saw some investment growth. By sector, energy continued to account for the bulk of new investment despite the investment drop in the first quarter of 2010. In transport, investment was stable compared with the first quarter of 2009. In water and sewerage investment grew although it remained at a very low level. Across sectors, new private activity, as measured by the number of projects, fell by 25 percent in the first quarter of 2010 compared with the same quarter of 2009.
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