Publication:
The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (867.16 KB)
84 downloads
English Text (55.89 KB)
16 downloads
Published
2024-02-15
ISSN
Date
2024-02-26
Editor(s)
Abstract
Despite sizable government interventions to sustain the economy, in the first year of the pandemic (2021/22), approximately 1 million jobs were lost in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and labor force participation contracted by 3 percentage points. Iranian women were the most affected: two out of three jobs lost between 2019/20 and 2020/21 were previously held by women. The gendered impact of the crisis contributed to widening Iranian women’s disadvantage in the labor market. Most importantly, the gains in female labor force participation that had slowly accumulated since 2011 vanished. Consistent with what is observed in other countries, women with young children were the most affected by the crisis. The combined effect of school closures and unequal intra-household allocation of care responsibilities, associated with prevailing gender norms, pushed Iranian women with children out of the labor force. Whether or not these trends will be reversed as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is normalized and the economy recovers from the crisis remains an important policy question.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Redaelli, Silvia. 2024. The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market. Policy Research Working Paper; 10705. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41103
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12) Iimi, Atsushi
    Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    From Policy to Practice: Lessons from the Implementation of the Refugee Work Rights Policy in Ethiopia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-10) Perez, Ana Maria; Rozo, Sandra V.
    This paper examines the early implementation of Ethiopia’s refugee work rights policy, with a focus on the issuance of permits that enable refugees to engage in economic activities. Building on significant legal and institutional advances under the 2019 Refugee Proclamation and subsequent directives, the analysis explores how these reforms are being operationalized in practice. Using a mixed-methods approach, combining document review, administrative data analysis, and semi-structured interviews, the paper identifies both progress and remaining challenges. Permit issuance has increased since the adoption of detailed operational guidance in 2024, reflecting the Government of Ethiopia’s commitment to operationalizing its progressive legal framework and ensuring that refugees can exercise their right to work. However, take-up remains modest, with about 5.2 percent of the working-age population holding a permit. Preliminary evidence suggests that coordination gaps, limited subnational capacity, low awareness among refugees and employers, and disincentives to formalize in a largely informal labor market are contributing to the low take-up. The paper offers policy suggestions, grounded in the Ethiopian context and emerging evidence, to help translate legal commitments into improved labor market outcomes for refugees.
  • Publication
    Monitoring Global Aid Flows: A Novel Approach Using Large Language Models
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04) Luo, Xubei; Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji; Scruggs, Andrew Conner
    Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400,000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    The Impacts of COVID-19 on Female Labor Force Participation in the Islamic Republic of Iran
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-12) Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad; Do, Minh N. N.
    Although female labor force participation in the Islamic Republic of Iran is among the lowest in the world, there is a lack of studies on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country’s female labor force participation. This paper finds that female labor force participation decreased during the pandemic years by around 1 percentage point in 2021 and 2022. When controlling for excess mortality rates, the declines increase by as much as 3.9 and 8.7 percentage points in late 2021 and early 2022, respectively. Compared to the modest, pre-pandemic female labor force participation rates, these figures translate into 5 percent and 18-40 percent decreases, respectively. There is heterogeneity, with more educated individuals being more likely to work. Compared to married individuals, divorcees were more likely to work, and those who were widowed or never married were less likely to work. The results offer relevant inputs for labor policies, particularly those aimed at reducing gender inequalities.
  • Publication
    The Gendered Impacts of COVID-19 on Labor Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Cucagna, Emilia; Romero, Javier
    High-frequency phone surveys conducted in 13 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) show that women were 44 percent more likely than men to lose their jobs at the onset of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As the crisis evolved, temporarily unemployed workers started to go back to work. But the difference in job losses among women and men persisted. Also, highly female-intensive sectors - trade, personal services, education, and hospitality - explain 56 percent of all job losses. And the presence of school-age children at home is linked with a rise in job losses among women, but not among men.
  • Publication
    The Long-Term and Gender-Equalizing Impacts of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq War in 1980–88 on School Access and Labor Market Performance
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-01) Xuan Hoang, Trung
    This paper uses the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq war in 1980–88 to study the long-term impacts of exposure to the war during school years on educational attainment and labor market outcomes in Iraq. The analysis uses an event study and the Iraq Household Socio-Economic Surveys 2006–2007. The findings show that the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq conflict had a negative impact on the social welfare of men who were exposed to the war, including on social security, pension plan, health care, paid leave, and job permanence, while little impact on women is found. Additionally, the conflict reduced wages for both men and women. Furthermore, men who were exposed to the conflict were more likely to work in dangerous jobs or without air conditioning, while no evidence on this is found for women. The paper also shows the impact of the intensity of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq war on educational attainment and labor market outcomes. It documents the education channel through which the war affects labor market outcomes, showing that the war decreased the educational levels of men and women born between 1971 and 1981. The findings are robust to a variety of robustness checks and falsification tests.
  • Publication
    Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects 2006
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006) World Bank
    This edtion of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economic developments and prospects reports highlights the recent key economic developments as well as the forces underlying the region's economic outcomes. It analyzes the region's medium term growth prospects given global forecasts, and charts the region?s progress with implementing comprehensive structural reforms needed for longer-term growth. For the third year in a row, MENA enjoyed a spectacular year of growth, buoyed by record high growth rates among the region's oil exporters. As oil prices continued their upward climb, the MENA region grew by an average of 6.0 percent over 2005, up from 5.6 percent over 2004, and compared with average growth of only 3.5 percent over the late 1990s. On an annual basis, MENA's average economic growth over the last three years, at 6.2 percent per year, has been the highest three-year growth period for the region since the late 1970s. MENA's regional growth upturn has not been universally shared, however, and resource poor economies are increasingly feeling the adverse impact of higher oil prices. Growth patterns among oil producers, on the other hand, have been increasingly harmonized, reflecting a trend toward common development strategies. Over the medium term, general conditions for maintaining a solid pace for growth appear promising. The oil shock MENA is experiencing has had important financial spillovers. Over the last few years, MENA has seen an upsurge in financial activity, as abundant liquidity has fed a rapid rise in credit growth, surging stock markets, and a booming real estate sector. A troubling aspect about MENA's financial markets is the seeming disconnect between the financial sector and the real private economy, despite the appearance of a relatively deep financial sector by macroeconomic indicators. Along with across the board policy reform, MENA economies continue to look to selective industrial policies designed to enhance specific sector competitiveness and growth to complement more broad-based structural reform. Although the views on industrial policy are changing, and a variety of economic justifications can be made for their use, MENA's own unsuccessful history with industrial policies (and the difficulty in transitioning out of them) should serve as a cautious reminder that the most effective policies for promoting growth rely on strategies to create a neutral and internationally competitive business environment.
  • Publication
    Synthesis of the Impacts of Covid-19 on India’s Labor Market
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03) He, Yiming; Narayan, Ambar; Olinto, Pedro; Sinha Roy, Sutirtha; Sarma, Nayantara
    This paper examines the impact of Covid-19 on a host of labor market outcomes in India, using a continuous household survey. Cross-sectional trends of headline indicators like unemployment and labor force participation indicate a quick recovery after the unprecedented shock of the pandemic. However, women, marginalized social groups, and youth were more adversely affected, largely due to the nature of their employment before the pandemic. Next, a fixed-cohort analysis with a difference-in-differences regression framework is used to follow the labor market trajectories of a Covid-affected cohort and a pre-Covid cohort for comparison, over a span of 12-16 months. A story of downward transitions emerges, with movements out of the labor force, into more informal and lower-paid types of work in agriculture and rural areas. Higher education and being located in dense, urban areas partially mediated the adverse shocks of Covid-19. Lastly, India’s extensive vaccination campaign had significant positive impacts on employment recovery.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Unlocking Blue Carbon Development
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-11) World Bank
    The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical framework to guide governments in catalyzing and scaling up public and private investment in Blue Carbon as part of their blue economy development. It does this by describing in detail a Blue Carbon Readiness Framework, a step-by-step, well-illustrated guide with simple checklists. Client countries can use the illustrations and checklists to determine their readiness to catalyze and scale up investment in blue carbon credit finance. The Blue Carbon Readiness Framework consists of three pillars: 1. Data and Analytics; 2. Policy and Institutions; 3. Finance.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Services Unbound
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09) World Bank
    Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01) World Bank
    Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.