Publication: The Effects of Cash Transfers on Adult Labor Market Outcomes
Loading...
Date
2018-04
ISSN
Published
2018-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The basic economic model of labor supply has a very clear prediction of what should be expected when an adult receives an unexpected cash windfall: they should work less and earn less. This intuition underlies concerns that many types of cash transfers, ranging from government benefits to migrant remittances, will undermine work ethics and make recipients lazy. This paper discusses a range of additional channels to this simple labor-leisure trade-off that can make this intuition misleading in low- and middle-income countries, including missing markets, price effects from conditions attached to transfers, and dynamic and general equilibrium effects. The paper uses this as a lens through which to examine the evidence on the adult labor market impacts of a wide range of cash transfer programs: government transfers, charitable giving and humanitarian transfers, remittances, cash assistance for job search, cash transfers for business start-up, and bundled interventions. Overall, cash transfers that are made without an explicit employment focus (such as conditional and unconditional cash transfers and remittances) tend to result in little to no change in adult labor. The main exceptions are transfers to the elderly and some refugees, who reduce work. In contrast, transfers made for job search assistance or business start-up tend to increase adult labor supply and earnings, with the likely main channels being the alleviation of liquidity and risk constraints.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Baird, Sarah; McKenzie, David; Ozler, Berk. 2018. The Effects of Cash Transfers on Adult Labor Market Outcomes. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8404. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29707 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Future of Poverty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15)Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.Publication Central Bank Independence and Sovereign Borrowing(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-25)This paper studies the impact of central bank independence on sovereign borrowing, using an index that captures institutional constraints on central bank lending to the government across 155 countries from 1972 to 2023. The findings show that tighter lending to the executive significantly reduces sovereign interest rates and raises the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio in developing countries. These effects reflect the executive’s improved ability to borrow at lower costs under greater central bank independence. The results are robust to multiple tests, but there are no significant effects in advanced economies. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the key role of independent central banks as catalysts for reducing governments’ borrowing costs and enhancing the government’s borrowing capacity.Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.Publication Crowding Out and Banking Crises(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22)This paper studies the effect of government issuance on firm issuance during banking crises using transaction-level bond and loan data from 66 countries between 1991 and 2017. Governments rarely issue loans, preferring to issue in bond markets. In contrast, firms receive most of their financing from banks. During banking crises, as the supply of domestic loans decreases, firms switch to issuing bonds in domestic markets. The paper uses a novel instrument based on maturing debt to overcome the potential endogeneity of government issuance. The findings show that firms must compete with the government for funds in the domestic bond market and are crowded out from this market as a result. This happens not only in developing countries, but in advanced countries as well. The paper also shows that firms with the ability to tap international debt markets switch to these markets when crowding out occurs in domestic bond markets. Lastly, the paper shows that more developed domestic bond markets mitigate, but do not eliminate, the degree to which crowding out occurs.Publication Designing and Analyzing Powerful Experiments(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22)This paper offers practical advice on how to improve statistical power in randomized experiments through choices and actions researchers can take at the design, implementation, and analysis stages. At the design stage, the choice of estimand, choice of treatment, and decisions that affect the residual variance and intra-cluster correlation can all affect power for a given sample size. At the implementation stage, researchers can boost power through increasing compliance with treatment, reducing attrition, and improving outcome measurement. At the analysis stage, power can be increased through using different test statistics or estimands, through the choice of control variables, and through incorporating informative priors in a Bayesian analysis. A key message is that it does not make sense to talk of “the” power of an experiment. A study can be well-powered for one outcome or estimand, but not others, and a fixed sample size can yield very different levels of power depending on researcher decisions.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Conditional, Unconditional and Everything in Between : A Systematic Review of the Effects of Cash Transfer Programs on Schooling Outcomes(Taylor and Francis, 2014-03-06)Cash transfer programmes are a popular social protection tool in developing countries that aim, among other things, to improve education outcomes in developing countries. The debate over whether these programmes should include conditions has been at the forefront of recent policy discussions. This systematic review aims to complement the existing evidence on the effectiveness of these programmes in improving schooling outcomes and help inform the debate surrounding the design of cash transfer programmes. Using data from 75 reports that cover 35 different studies, the authors find that both conditional cash transfers (CCTs) and unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) improve the odds of being enrolled in and attending school compared to no cash transfer programme. The effect sizes for enrolment and attendance are always larger for CCTs compared to UCTs, but the difference is not statistically significant. When programmes are categorised as having no schooling conditions, having some conditions with minimal monitoring and enforcement and having explicit conditions that are monitored and enforced, a much clearer pattern emerges whereby programmes that are explicitly conditional, monitor compliance and penalise non-compliance have substantively larger effects (60% improvement in odds of enrolment). Unlike enrolment and attendance, the effectiveness of cash transfer programmes on improving test scores is small at best. More research is needed that examines longer-term outcomes such as test scores and, more generally, evaluating the impacts of UCTs.Publication Designing Cost-Effective Cash Transfer Programs to Boost Schooling among Young Women in Sub-Saharan Africa(2009-10-01)As of 2007, 29 developing countries had some type of conditional cash transfer program in place, with many others planning or piloting one. However, the evidence base needed by a government to decide how to design a new conditional cash transfer program is severely limited in a number of critical dimensions. This paper presents one-year schooling impacts from a conditional cash transfer experiment among teenage girls and young women in Malawi, which was designed to address these shortcomings: conditionality status, size of separate transfers to the schoolgirl and the parent, and village-level saturation of treatment were all independently randomized. The authors find that the program had large impacts on school attendance: the re-enrollment rate among those who had already dropped out of school before the start of the program increased by two and a half times and the dropout rate among those in school at baseline decreased from 11 to 6 percent. These impacts were, on average, similar in the conditional and the unconditional treatment arms. Although most schooling outcomes examined here were unresponsive to variation in the size of the transfer to the parents, higher transfers given directly to the schoolgirls were associated with significantly improved school attendance and progress - but only if the transfers were conditional on school attendance. There were no spillover effects within treatment communities after the first year of program implementation. Policymakers looking to design cost-effective cash transfer programs targeted toward young women should note the relative insensitivity of these short-term program impacts with respect to conditionality and total transfer size.Publication Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment(2010-03-01)Conditional Cash Transfer programs are "...the world's favorite new anti-poverty device," (The Economist, July 29 2010) yet little is known about the specific role of the conditions in driving their success. In this paper, we evaluate a unique cash transfer experiment targeted at adolescent girls in Malawi that featured both a conditional (CCT) and an unconditional (UCT) treatment arm. We find that while there was a modest improvement in school enrollment in the UCT arm in comparison to the control group, this increase is only 43 percent as large as the CCT arm. The CCT arm also outperformed the UCT arm in tests of English reading comprehension. The schooling condition, however, proved costly for important non-schooling outcomes: teenage pregnancy and marriage rates were substantially higher in the CCT than the UCT arm. Our findings suggest that a CCT program for early adolescents that transitions into a UCT for older teenagers would minimize this trade-off by improving schooling outcomes while avoiding the adverse impacts of conditionality on teenage pregnancy and marriage.Publication The Short-Term Impacts of a Schooling Conditional Cash Transfer Program on the Sexual Behavior of Young Women(2010)Recent evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs for schooling are effective in raising school enrolment and attendance. However, there is also reason to believe that such programs can affect other outcomes, such as the sexual behavior of their young beneficiaries. Zomba Cash Transfer Program is a randomized ongoing CCT intervention targeting young women in Malawi that provides incentives (in the form of school fees and cash transfers) to current schoolgirls and recent dropouts to stay in or return to school. An average offer of US$ 10/month conditional on satisfactory school attendance--plus direct payment of secondary school fees--led to significant declines in early marriage, teenage pregnancy, and self-reported sexual activity among program beneficiaries after just one year of program implementation. For program beneficiaries who were out of school at baseline, the probability of getting married and becoming pregnant declined by more than 40 and 30%, respectively. In addition, the incidence of the onset of sexual activity was 38% lower among all program beneficiaries than the control group. Overall, these results suggest that CCT programs not only serve as useful tools for improving school attendance but may also reduce sexual activity, teen pregnancy, and early marriage.Publication The Short-Term Impacts of a Schooling Conditional Cash Transfer Program on the Sexual Behavior of Young Women(2009-10-01)Recent evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs for schooling are effective in raising school enrollment and attendance. However, there is also reason to believe that such programs can affect other outcomes, such as the sexual behavior of their young beneficiaries. Zomba Cash Transfer Program is a randomized, ongoing conditional cash transfer intervention targeting young women in Malawi that provides incentives (in the form of school fees and cash transfers) to current schoolgirls and recent dropouts to stay in or return to school. An average offer of US$10/month conditional on satisfactory school attendance plus direct payment of secondary school fees led to significant declines in early marriage, teenage pregnancy, and self-reported sexual activity among program beneficiaries after just one year of program implementation. For program beneficiaries who were out of school at baseline, the probability of getting married and becoming pregnant declined by more than 40 percent and 30 percent, respectively. In addition, the incidence of the onset of sexual activity was 38 percent lower among all program beneficiaries than the control group. Overall, these results suggest that conditional cash transfer programs not only serve as useful tools for improving school attendance, but may also reduce sexual activity, teen pregnancy, and early marriage.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Fiscal Incidence Analysis for Kenya(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-29)Kenya has made satisfactory progress in reducing poverty and inequality in recent years. Economic growth in Kenya between 2005-06 and 2015-16 averaged around 5.3 percent, exceeding the average growth of 4.9 percent observed for Sub-Saharan Africa. This robust economic growth resulted in a reduction in poverty, whether measured by the national or international poverty line. The proportion of the population living beneath the national poverty line fell from 46.8 percent in 2005-06 to 36.1 percent in 2015-16, showing a modest improvement in the living standards of the Kenyan population. Similarly, poverty under the international poverty line of US$ 1.90 a day declined from 43.6 percent in 2005-06 to 35.6 percent in 2015-16. At this level, poverty in Kenya is below the average in sub-Saharan Africa and is amongst the lowest in the East African Community (World Bank, 2018b). However, the proportion of the population living in poverty remains comparatively high in Kenya and the rate at which growth translated into poverty reduction was lower than elsewhere. At twice the average, Kenya’s poverty rate is still high for a lower-middle income country, a group that Kenya joined only in 2015. In addition, the Kenya’s growth elasticity of poverty reduction, the percentage reduction in the poverty rate associated with a one-percent increase in mean per capita income is only 0.57, lower than in Tanzania, Ghana, or Uganda (World Bank, 2018b). This leads to the obvious question of what can be done to make economic growth more pro-poor in Kenya. This study assesses the distributional consequences of Kenya’s system of taxes and transfers, covering 60 percent of revenue and between 25 and 30 percent of government spending. The analysis of fiscal incidence and distributional consequences of Kenya’s tax and transfer system is an important input for designing pro-poor policies and potentially for influencing the rate at which economic growth translates into poverty reduction. In this study, direct taxes and transfers, indirect taxes (VAT and excise duties), as well as public health and education spending are assessed in terms of their distributional impacts. Overall, these taxes and transfers account for about 60 percent of revenue and between 25 and 30 percent of government spending.Publication Nigeria Development Update, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)In 2020, Nigeria experienced its deepest recession in four decades, but growth resumed in the fourth quarter as pandemic restrictions were eased, oil prices recovered, and the authorities implemented policies to counter the economic shock. As a result, in 2020 the Nigerian economy experienced a smaller contraction (-1.8 percent) than had been projected when the pandemic began (-3.2 percent). As part of its response, the government carried out several long-delayed policy reforms, often against vocal opposition. Notably, the government (1) began to harmonize exchange rates; (2) began to eliminate gasoline subsidies; (3) started adjusting electricity tariffs to more cost-reflective levels; (4) cut nonessential spending and redirected resources to COVID-19 (coronavirus) responses at both the federal and the state levels; and (5) enhanced debt management and increased public-sector transparency, especially for oil and gas operations. By creating additional fiscal space and maximizing the impact of the government’s limited resources, these measures were critical in protecting the economy against a much deeper recession and in laying the foundation for earlier recovery. However, several critical reforms are as yet incomplete, which threatens Nigeria’s nascent recovery. In the baseline scenario, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021. Despite the current favorable external environment, with oil prices recovering and growth in advanced economies, reform slippages would hinder the renewed economic expansion and undermine progress toward Nigeria’s development goals. In a risk scenario, in which the government fails to sustain recent macroeconomic and structural reforms, the pace of economic recovery would slow, and GDP growth couldbe just 1.1 percent in 2021.Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery in Kenya(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02)Kenya adopted a new constitution and began the process of devolution in 2010, ceding many formerly national responsibilities to new county governments. As an institutional response to longstanding grievances, this radical restructuring of the Kenyan state had three continuing main objectives: decentralizing political power, public sector functions, and public finances; ensuring a more equitable distribution of resources among regions; and promoting more accountable, participatory, and responsive government at all levels. The first elections under the new constitution were held in 2013 and led to the establishment of 47 new county governments. Each county government is made up of a county executive, headed by an elected governor, and an elected County Assembly that legislates and provides oversight. Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery in Kenya takes stock of how devolution has affected the delivery of basic services to Kenyan citizens nine years after the “devolution train” left the station. Whereas devolution was driven by political reform, the ensuing institutions and systems were expected to deliver greater socioeconomic equity through devolved service delivery. Jointly coordinated by the government of Kenya and the World Bank, the Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery (MDWSD) study is the first major assessment of Kenya’s devolution reform. The study provides key messages about what is working, what is not working, and what could work better to enhance service delivery based on currently available data. It provides an independent assessment of service delivery performance in five sectors: agriculture, education, health, urban services, and water services. This assessment includes an in-depth review of the main pillars of devolved service delivery: accountability, human resource management, intergovernmental finance, politics, and public financial management. In addition to its findings for the present, the MDWSD study provides recommendations on how Kenya can improve its performance in each of these pivotal areas in the future.Publication Managing County Assets and Liabilities in Kenya(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Public entities around the world possess an enormous volume of assets and wealth, which includes land, buildings, historic sites, parks, and infrastructure networks, among many others. Good management of such assets is a catalyst for accelerating development and expanding services; poor asset management generates enormous losses, including lost opportunities to build wealth. Private enterprises increasingly use computerized systems to manage assets such as fleets and buildings. Many city leaders in developing countries, however, are unaware of asset management or feel they lack the time or money to undertake it. Managing County Assets and Liabilities in Kenya: Postdevolution Challenges and Responses can help them begin or maintain their efforts to manage assets sustainably. This book helps readers understand the basic concept of asset management; explains systems, tools, and procedures; and provides models and guidance. Kenya has achieved much since its 2013 devolution of governance and management to new counties. However, counties, which are the local governments in Kenya, are still working toward establishing systems and procedures, creating asset and liability registers, verifying and valuing assets, using assets strategically, and resolving disputes surrounding inherited assets and liabilities. This book provides glimpses into the Kenyan devolution process and asset transfer challenges, draws lessons, and explores options relevant to both Kenya and other nations. Ample studies discuss various aspects of municipal asset management, such as managing infrastructure, fixed assets, water services, building properties, roads, or fleets. This book is unique among asset management studies in three ways: it discusses all sorts of assets and liabilities and their interlinkages, exemplifies the close connection between financial results and asset management of municipalities, and reveals the political economy challenges in transferring assets and liabilities across public entities.