Publication: The Notional and the Real in China’s Pension Reforms
Loading...
Date
2019-04
ISSN
Published
2019-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper discusses the potential expansion of the role of the notional defined contribution (NDC) paradigm in the ongoing reforms of retirement provision in China. It finds that mature age life expectancy is remarkably uniform among formal sector workers at the time of retirement, although greater heterogeneity does exist for Rural and Urban Residents Pension Scheme members. The implications of a stylized NDC structure are examined covering China’s major pension systems, calibrated to be actuarially neutral. Each system has a different contribution rate and retirement age, consistent with different life expectancies. A complementary social pension is also proposed. The paper concludes that an increased presence of the NDC paradigm has the potential to raise aggregate welfare.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Lu, Bei; Piggott, John; Zheng, Bingwen. 2019. The Notional and the Real in China’s Pension Reforms. Social Protection and Jobs Discussion Paper,no. 1921;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31645 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Mongolia Policy Options for Pension Reform(Washington, DC, 2011-01-20)This report was prepared in response to a request by the Mongolian authorities for an evaluation of the Mongolian pension system and policy reform options. The report identifies a number of design weaknesses in the current pension insurance scheme and needs for reform in response to changes in the Mongolian economy. The summary of this report provides a brief synopsis for key policymakers of the rationale for reform and policy options considered. The main text responds to requests by the Mongolian authorities for the Bank's assessment. It considers the design architecture and parameters of the pension insurance scheme, the design of non- contributory elderly social assistance, pension provisions for herders and the rationale and design options for a pension reserve fund. The appendices provide more detailed analysis for technical staff including current pension insurance parameters; needs and policy options for herders and other informal sector workers; options for establishing a pension reserve fund; and elaboration of the actuarial modeling methodology employed, key assumptions and parameters, and detailed findings. Mongolia's economy, labor market and fiscal position are undergoing rapid changes as a result of growth in the mining sector. These changes present both challenges and opportunities for reform in pension provisions.Publication China's Pension System : A Vision(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-02-27)China is at a critical juncture in its economic transition. A comprehensive reform of its pension and social security systems is an essential element of a strategy aimed toward achieving a harmonious society and sustainable development. Among policy makers, a widely held view is that the approach to pension provision and reform efforts piloted over the last 10-15 years is insufficient to enable China's economy and population to realize its development objectives in the years ahead. This volume suggests a national pension system that no longer distinguishes along urban and rural locational or hukou lines yet takes account of the diverse nature of employment relations and capacity of individuals to make contributions. This volume is organized as follows: the main text outlines this vision, focusing on summarizing the key features of a proposed long-term pension system. It first examines key trends motivating the need for reform then outlines the proposed three-pillar design and the rationale behind the design choices. It then moves on to examine financing options. The text continues by discussing institutional reform issues, and the final section concludes. The six appendixes provide additional analytical detail supporting the findings in the main text. The pension system design can play an important role in supporting or constraining such economic and demographic transitions: 1) fragmentation and lack of portability of rights hinder labor market efficiency and contribute to coverage gaps; 2) multiple schemes for salaried workers, civil servants, and, in some areas, migrants similarly impact labor markets; 3) legacy costs that are largely financed through current pension contributions weaken incentives for compliance and accurate wage reporting; 4) very limited risk pooling and interurban resource transfers limit the insurance function of the urban pension system and create spatial disparities in old-age income protection; 5) low retirement ages affect incentives and benefits and undermine fiscal sustainability; and 6) relatively low returns on individual accounts result in replacement rates significantly less than anticipated while at the macro level, are likely to inhibit wider efforts to stimulate higher domestic consumption.Publication Creation of a Reformed Pension System for Civil Servants in Timor-Leste(Washington, DC, 2014-02)In February 2011, the government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) enacted a law creating a pension system for civil servants. However, the government now wants to repeal and replace this pension law as it deems it too broad in scope, coverage and cost, and it contains several non-standard design features. In its place, the GoTL wants to consider creating a reformed permanent civil service pension program covering all civil servants. Within a few years thereafter, the government also wants to implement a national social security system. This system will cover formal sector workers, and it is likely civil servants will also participate. Consequently, civil servants may get benefits from both the national social security system and the civil service pension system. Timor-Leste has many civil servants with long service both before and after independence. The reformed pension system for civil servants will give the government a method of honorably allowing its elderly civil servants to exit the work force. At this time, the primary method of caring for elderly civil servants is to continue salary payments. This is because there is no mandatory retirement age for civil servants and the government does not yet have effective procedures for compelling older workers to retire when their productivity level declines. Consequently, the government has informed us that the civil service pension is unlikely to pay benefits to any civil servants until such time as these two issues are resolved. The government estimates this will take five years (until 2018). Until that time, elderly civil servants will continue to receive their salary and will not receive a pension from the reformed civil service pension program.Publication Mongolia : Pension Policy Challenges and Reform Options(Washington, DC, 2008-04-21)Mongolia inherited a pay-as-you go public pension system providing universal coverage and high levels of benefits (relative to pre-retirement income), consistent with the state provision of all forms of social insurance. The system was reformed in 1995, including the introduction of contributions for pensions and other social insurance, but it remained dependent upon Government transfers. The reforms improved the existing scheme but failed to achieve financial sustainability or address a number of weaknesses in the existing scheme's design, which created weak incentives for contributing to the system and benefit inequities between different groups of workers/cohorts. This policy note responds to this request, and it is part of an ongoing broader collaboration with the Government and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on pension reform that includes: (i) supporting the development of the policy framework for pension reform; (ii) improving the pension policy making capacity; and (iii) assisting in the identification of the institutional development needs to support the new pension system. This note identifies a number of challenges in the design and implementation of the current social insurance system that would need to be addressed to strengthen the system's ability to provide consumption smoothing and old-age income security for Mongolia's population.Publication Adequacy of Retirement Income after Pension Reforms in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe : Eight Country Studies(World Bank, 2009)All of the former transition economies in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe (CESE) inherited from the era of central planning traditional defined-benefit pension systems financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. Like many pay-as-you-go public pension systems elsewhere in the world, CESE pension systems were in need of reforms to address short-term fiscal imbalances and longer-term issues relating to population aging. Reforms were also needed to adjust benefit and contribution structures to meet the challenges of-as well as to take advantage of opportunities relating to the transition to a market economy, including the widespread adoption of multiplier designs with improved risk-sharing across funded and unfunded pillars. By 2006, most countries in Europe and Central Asia had introduced a voluntary private pension scheme. By 2008, 14 countries roughly half of all countries in the region had legislated mandatory private pension schemes, and all but one of those schemes (the one in Ukraine) had been introduced. These reforms shared a number of common objectives, in particular putting the systems on a sounder financial footing and better aligning them with the (very different) incentives of a market economy. This report is organized as follows. The first section discusses the motivation for reform across the eight countries included in the study against the backdrop of the regional (and global) trend toward multiplier pension arrangements. The second section summarizes the key provisions of the reformed systems in the eight countries within the World Bank's five-pillar framework for pension system design. The third section summarizes pension system performance against the two crucially important dimensions of adequacy and sustainability. The last section provides some policy recommendations for addressing gaps in reforms and taking advantage of further opportunities.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Sourcebook on the Foundations of Social Protection Delivery Systems(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-30)The Sourcebook synthesizes real-world experiences and lessons learned of social protection delivery systems from around the world, with a particular focus on social and labor benefits and services. It takes a practical approach, seeking to address concrete “how-to” questions, including: How do countries deliver social protection benefits and services? How do they do so effectively and efficiently? How do they ensure dynamic inclusion, especially for the most vulnerable and needy? How do they promote better coordination and integration—not only among social protection programs but also programs in other parts of government? How can they meet the needs of their intended populations and provide a better client experience? The Sourcebook structures itself around eight key principles that can frame the delivery systems mindset: (1) delivery systems evolve over time, do so in a non-linear fashion, and are affected by the starting point(s); (2) additional efforts should be made to “do simple well”, and to do so from the start rather than trying to remedy by after-the-fact adding-on of features or aspects; (3) quality implementation matters, and weaknesses in the design or structure of any core system element will negatively impact delivery; (4) defining the “first mile” for people interface greatly affects the system and overall delivery, and is most improved when that “first mile” is understood as the weakest link in delivery systems); (5) delivery systems do not operate in a vacuum and thus should not be developed in silos; (6) delivery systems can contribute more broadly to government’s ability to intervene in other sectors, such as health insurance subsidies, scholarships, social energy tariffs, housing benefits, and legal services; (7) there is no single blueprint for delivery systems, but there are commonalities and those common elements constitute the core of the delivery systems framework; (8) inclusion and coordination are pervasive and perennial dual challenges, and they contribute to the objectives of effectiveness and efficiency.Publication Services Unbound(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09)Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.Publication World Development Report 2008(Washington, DC, 2007)The world's demand for food is expected to double within the next 50 years, while the natural resources that sustain agriculture will become increasingly scarce, degraded, and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In many poor countries, agriculture accounts for at least 40 percent of GDP and 80 percent of employment. At the same time, about 70 percent of the world's poor live in rural areas and most depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. World Development Report 2008 seeks to assess where, when, and how agriculture can be an effective instrument for economic development, especially development that favors the poor. It examines several broad questions: How has agriculture changed in developing countries in the past 20 years? What are the important new challenges and opportunities for agriculture? Which new sources of agricultural growth can be captured cost effectively in particular in poor countries with large agricultural sectors as in Africa? How can agricultural growth be made more effective for poverty reduction? How can governments facilitate the transition of large populations out of agriculture, without simply transferring the burden of rural poverty to urban areas? How can the natural resource endowment for agriculture be protected? How can agriculture's negative environmental effects be contained? This year's report marks the 30th year the World Bank has been publishing the World Development Report.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11)After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.