Publication: On Financial Development and Economic Growth in the Arab Republic of Egypt
Loading...
Files in English
923 downloads
Published
2019-09
ISSN
Date
2019-09-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper discusses the evolution of the Egyptian banking sector and the main trends in financial development in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The paper examines empirically the relationship between the development of the financial sector and economic growth in Egypt between 1980 and 2016. It draws comparisons based on critical financial indicators between Egypt and selected emerging markets and developing economies, using a new data set of financial development indexes released by the International Monetary Fund. Econometric time-series modeling of bivariate regressions for real growth per capita and measures of financial development, to assess the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt, yields three specific findings. First; there is a strong association between real growth per capita and financial development measured. Second; access to and the efficiency of banking services are not associated with real per capita income. Third, the Financial Markets Access Index—which compiles data on market capitalization outside the top 10 largest companies and the number of corporate issuers of debt—indicates that there is a robust association with real per capita gross domestic product. The main policy implications suggest that there should be a stronger focus on promoting a more proactive role for the financial services industry in Egypt. There is an especially critical role for bank financing to support the private sector to maintain an inclusive growth momentum. Further development of the capital market will promote the sustainability of such economic growth.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Mohieldin, Mahmoud; Hussein, Khaled; Rostom, Ahmed. 2019. On Financial Development and Economic Growth in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9008. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32415 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication The Lasting Effects of Working while in School(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-18)This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor earnings, observable seven years after the program. Effects are stronger for youth who participate during pivotal educational transitions and are larger for vulnerable youth and men, while remaining positive for women and non-vulnerable youth. The program is highly cost-effective, with average impacts exceeding those of job training programs and comparable to early childhood investments.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Savings, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in the Arab Republic of Egypt Revisited(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04)Private savings play a pivotal role in financing development and sustaining growth. Recently, there have been many theoretical developments that underpin key determinants of savings behavior, many of which merit empirical investigation. Understanding the dynamics of the determinants of savings is crucial to inform economic policy and devise reform programs. This paper builds on earlier work examining the stability of the long-run relationship between the real interest rate, financial saving, and total saving during 1960 to 1990. The paper extends the scope of the empirical investigation of the determinants of private savings behavior in the Arab Republic of Egypt, and considers the effect of financial development. The analysis uses quarterly data covering 1991–2010, adopting a vector error correction model. The key findings attest that private savings in Egypt follow the Life Cycle Model in the long term. Controlling for population growth, the analysis finds that the real interest rate and financial development are key determinates for real private savings in the long run. The negative long-run relation between the real interest rate and private savings holds under the proposed model structure as well as for that in the earlier work. However, in the short run, inflation and exchange rate movements are key determinants for private savings decisions. Robust economic policies, inclusive of macroeconomic and monetary measures, are prerequisites for maximizing private savings and financing growth in Egypt.Publication The Role of Islamic Finance in Enhancing Financial Inclusion in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries(2011-12-01)The core principles of Islam lay great emphasis on social justice, inclusion, and sharing of resources between the haves and the have nots. Islamic finance addresses the issue of "financial inclusion" or "access to finance" from two directions -- one through promoting risk-sharing contracts that provide a viable alternative to conventional debt-based financing, and the other through specific instruments of redistribution of the wealth among the society. Use of risk-sharing financing instruments can offer Shariah-compliant microfinance, financing for small and medium enterprises, and micro-insurance to enhance access to finance. And redistributive instruments such as Zakah, Sadaqat, Waqf, and Qard-al-hassan complement risk-sharing instruments to target the poor sector of society to offer a comprehensive approach to eradicating poverty and to build a healthy and vibrant economy. Instruments offered by Islam have strong historical roots and have been applied throughout history in various Muslim communities. The paper identifies gaps currently existing in Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries on each front, that is, Shariah-compliant micro-finance and financing for small and medium enterprises and the state of traditional redistributive instruments. The paper concludes that Islam offers a rich set of instruments and unconventional approaches, which, if implemented in true spirit, can lead to reduced poverty and inequality in Muslim countries plagued by massive poverty. Therefore, policy makers in Muslim countries who are serious about enhancing access to finance or "financial inclusion" should exploit the potential of Islamic instruments to achieve this goal and focus on improving the regulatory and financial infrastructure to promote an enabling environment.Publication Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior : Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregression(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2002-10)The authors apply vector autoregression to firm-level panel data from 36 countries to study the dynamic relationship between firms' financial conditions and investment. They argue that by using orthogonalized impulse-response functions they are able to separate the "fundamental factors" (such as marginal profitability of investment) from the "financial factors" (such as availability of internal finance) that influence the level of investment. The authors find that the impact of the financial factors on investment, which they interpret as evidence of financing constraints, is significantly larger in countries with less developed financial systems. The finding emphasizes the role of financial development in improving capital allocation and growth.Publication How the Republic of Korea's Financial Structure Affects the Volatility of Four Asset Prices(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-04)The authors explore how Koreas financial structure affects the volatility of asset prices. Documented empirical evidence of the relationship between financial structure and financial crisis, sheds light on the relationship between asset price volatility - extreme variations in price - and financial structure. And the volatility of financial and non-financial asset prices provides an indirect link between an economys financial structure and the likelihood of financial crisis. Using time-series data on a se of indicators measuring financial structure, the authors examine how Koreas financial structure affects the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, government bond yields, and stock prices. They find: 1) There is a stable long-term relationship between financial structure and volatility in the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, stock prices, and the yield on government housing bonds. 2) Financial structure affects asset price variables asymmetrically. Some variables volatility increases, and others diminish, suggesting that monetary policies should target different asset markets to achieve different goals. If the goal of the monetary authority is to stabilize the money market rate, for example, intervening in the banking sector is more efficient than intervening in other financial sub-sectors. 3) The higher volatility of stock prices reflects the thin stock market in Korea. 4) The stability of the yield on government housing bonds reflects the Korean governments policy of stabilizing the nations housing supply by isolating the housing market from the impact of Koreas financial structure. 5) Restrictions on foreigners ownership of domestic stock in Korea during the period analyzed, and the fact that most capital flows through commercial banks, affect the exchange rate, which is determined (at least in the short run) by capital flows in the foreign exchange market.Publication Arab Republic of Egypt - Reshaping Egypt's Economic Geography : Domestic Integration as a Development Platform, Volume 1(Washington, DC, 2012-06)This report investigates Egypt's regional economic growth, explores the causes for geographically unbalanced development, and proposes policy options to make unbalanced growth compatible with inclusive development. In Egypt, despite rapid progress in most welfare indicators in lagging regions, there are still substantial gaps in consumption and opportunities between growth poles and the rest of the country. This report's central proposal is adopting spatial integration as a development platform, in which the policy focus shifts from spreading out industrial location to spreading out access to basic public services and facilitating factor mobility, which will make growth more inclusive and development more balanced in Egypt. Egypt's new political environment provides an opportunity to examine this perennial problem from a new perspective. Adopting integration as a development platform is not simple because spatial disparities are spanned in three dimensions: urban/rural dichotomies, the upper Egypt/lower Egypt duality, and the differences between large metropolises and the rest of the country. This report first identifies the gaps in consumption and in opportunities, showing the stark contrasts between regions and how they evolve through time. It then explores the causes of the gaps, revealing a multiplicity of factors and exposing the complexity of the problem. Finally, the bulk of the report presents the policy options to address the integration challenges.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Rwanda Diagnostic Review of Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-11)Although the Parliament of Rwanda has passed an impressive array of financial sector laws since 2008, the laws relevant to financial consumer protection are very limited and in some cases overlapping. Consumer protection in Rwandan banking, microfinance, and insurance sectors is fragmented because of insufficiently defined roles and responsibilities among institutions and unclear enforcement capacity. While there are some strong provisions in some areas such as electronic money transfer, electronic transmission, credit information, and market conduct regulation in the insurance industry, many other areas are lagging. Rwandan authorities recognize that a sound financial consumer protection framework is fundamental to improving usage and quality of financial services, access to them, and overall deepening of the financial sector. This World Bank diagnostic review was requested by the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) in November 2012. Modules on banking and microfinance sectors were developed based on publicly available information and data during the World Bank mission in Rwanda, and the review of the insurance sector was conducted through a desk review using the data obtained from BNR data requests and questionnaires, and the analysis is therefore constrained by it. Volume I of the review summarizes its key findings and recommendations, and volume II provides a detailed assessment against the World Bank’s good practices on financial consumer protection.Publication Strategic Planning for Poverty Reduction in Vietnam : Progress and Challenges for Meeting the Localized Millennium Development Goals(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-01)This paper discusses the progress that Vietnam has made toward meeting a core set of development goals that the government recently adopted as part of its Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS). These goals are strongly related to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), but are adapted and expanded to reflect Vietnam's national challenges and the government's ambitious development plans. For each Vietnam Development Goal, the authors describe recent trends in relation to the trajectories implied by the MDGs, outline the intermediate targets identified by the government, and discuss the challenges involved in meeting these. Relative to other countries of similar per capita expenditures, Vietnam has made rapid progress in a number of key areas. Poverty has halved over the 1990s, enrollment rates in primary education have risen to 91 percent (although there is a quality problem), indicators of gender equity have been strengthened, child mortality has been reduced, maternal health has improved, and real progress has been made in combating malaria and other communicable diseases. In contrast, Vietnam scores worse than other comparable countries in the areas of child malnutrition, access to clean water, and combating HIV/AIDS. A number of important crosscutting issues emerge from this analysis that need to be addressed. One such challenge is improving equity, both in terms of ensuring that the benefits of growth are distributed evenly across the population and in terms of access to public services. This will involve addressing the affordability of education and curative health care for poor households. Improvements in public expenditure planning are needed to align resources better to stated desired outcomes and to link nationally-defined targets to subnational planning and budgeting processes. There is also a need to address capacity and data gaps which will be crucial for effective monitoring.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Improving Access to Medicines in Developing Countries : Application of New Institutional Economics to the Analysis of Manufacturing and Distribution Issues(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-03)This paper examines alternative frameworks for empirical analysis of supply side activities, namely, the manufacture and distribution of medicine, through the application of New Institutional Economics (NIE) concepts. Attention is focused particularly upon the potential utility of ideas from agency theory, transaction cost analysis and contemporary ideas from strategy theory. The major purpose of this paper is to use these theoretical frameworks to provide insight for policy makers, when faced with specific situations, whether in an international agency, or a private company, or in defining a national strategy. The analysis attempts to show the importance of distinctions between ideas of 'make' or 'buy', between 'national self sufficiency' and 'international purchasing' strategies, the limitations of contractual agreements under market governance and the crucial linkages between strategy formulation, strategy implementation and the necessary capabilities to achieve successful performance in practice. The current international situation on the investment, location and capacity of pharmaceutical manufacturing is reviewed and likely future scenarios suggested. Correspondingly current patterns of trade in medicines and their likely development within the context of the WTO and bilateral trade agreements are discussed. Against this background the promise and the pitfalls for new forms of public-private partnerships, which may offer attractive alternatives to conventional structures are evaluated. The implications of alternative future strategic options for national governments in setting the balance between health and industrial policies are examined and in particular the extent to which a national manufacturing capability should be developed or sustained. Similarly the scope for improving low cost distribution systems for medicines, based upon a mix of public and private sector channels, is assessed. We conclude with suggestions for further development of a transaction-based framework.Publication Accessing Economic and Political Impacts of Hydrological Variability on Treaties : Case Studies on the Zambezi and Mekong Basins(2012-03-01)International river basins will likely face higher hydrologic variability due to climate change. Increased floods and droughts would have economic and political consequences. Riparians of transboundary basins governed by water treaties could experience non-compliance and inter-state tensions if flow falls below levels presumed in a treaty. Flow information is essential to cope with these challenges through water storage, allocation, and use. This paper demonstrates a simple yet robust method, which measures gauge station runoff with wetness values derived from satellite data (1988-2010), for expanding sub-basin stream flow information to the entire river basin where natural flow information is limited. It demonstrates the approach with flow level data that provide estimates of monthly runoff in near real time in two international river basins: Zambezi and Mekong. The paper includes an economic framework incorporating information on existing institutions to assess potential economic and political impacts and to inform policy on conflict and cooperation between riparians. The authors conclude that satellite data modeled with gauge station runoff reduce the uncertainty inherent in negotiating an international water agreement under increased hydrological variability, and thus can assist policy makers to devise more efficient institutional apparatus.