Publication: Uganda Economic Update, February 2015: The Growth Challenge--Can Ugandan Cities Get to Work?
Loading...
Published
2015-02
ISSN
Date
2015-04-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This Fifth Edition of the Uganda Economic Update presents evidence that if the urbanization process is well managed, it has the potential to stimulate economic growth and to provide productive jobs for a greater proportion of Uganda s young and rapidly expanding population. In many countries across the world, the growth of cities has stimulated the establishment and expansion of productive businesses by reducing the distance between suppliers and customers. The growth of cities has also facilitated provision of social services and infrastructure through economies of scale. These positive effects from urbanization are already visible in Uganda since the poverty rate is seven percentage points lower in urban areas than in rural areas. Most of the recent job creation is found in cities, and social indicators are also better in urban areas, especially in education and health. This report conveys the following key messages: (1) over the past 12 years, the number of people living in Uganda s urban areas has been increasing by an average of 300,000 people per year, (2) during the past few decades, similarly rapid rates of urbanization have been recorded in many emerging countries, (3) as is the case in many other developing countries, the prospects of good jobs, higher incomes and better living conditions in the cities continue to attract Ugandans from rural areas, (4) currently, the opportunity presents itself for Uganda to leverage urbanization to benefit a large proportion of the population, and (5) through the implementation of smart policies, Uganda can ensure that its cities are both competitive and livable.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2015. Uganda Economic Update, February 2015: The Growth Challenge--Can Ugandan Cities Get to Work?. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21791 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Taking Stock, June 2010(World Bank, Hanoi, 2010-06)Vietnam has navigated the global crisis better than many other countries. GDP grew by 5.3 percent in 2009, accelerating to 6.9 percent in the last quarter of the year. At 5.8 percent, the figure for the first quarter of 2010 was less impressive, but claims that growth has slowed down are most probably unwarranted. Exports declined in 2009, for the first time since the beginning of economic reforms, but their decline was smaller than in other countries of the region. By now export growth is converging back to the 30 percent annual growth rate observed before the crisis. Inflation, which had reached 19.9 percent in 2008, was down to 6.5 percent in 2009. While there were some worrying signs of inflation acceleration in late 2009 and early 2010, by now the monthly increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is again moderate. And as in previous years, there were no banking crises despite the continuation of macroeconomic turbulence. More generally, lack of clarity by markets forces the government to overshoot in its policy reactions. Because markets are not sure to understand what the government is up to, they need to see very strong action in order to be convinced that the right course of action has been taken. As a result, Vietnam has had to go through dramatic shifts in the policy stance as circumstances changed. The stabilization policies of 2008 effectively 'killed' the real estate bubble and brought inflation rates to zero in just a few months, but such speed took a toll on economic activity. The stimulus policies of 2009 were equally strong and determined, but they ended up putting too much pressure on international reserves. With more information disclosure and better communication, policy shifts could perhaps be less extreme. Combined with stronger macroeconomic management, it should be possible for Vietnam to gradually free itself from the 'stop-and-go' cycle that has characterized macroeconomic policies over the last three years.Publication Uganda Economic Update, February 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-02)This Fifth Edition of the Uganda Economic Update presents evidence that if the urbanization process is well managed, it has the potential to stimulate economic growth and to provide productive jobs for a greater proportion of Uganda’s young and rapidly expanding population. In many countries across the world, the growth of cities has stimulated the establishment and expansion of productive businesses by reducing the distance between suppliers and customers. The growth of cities has also facilitated provision of social services and infrastructure through economies of scale. These positive effects from urbanization are already visible in Uganda since the poverty rate is seven percentage points lower in urban areas than in rural areas. Most of the recent job creation is found in cities, and social indicators are also better in urban areas, especially in education and health.Publication Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, February 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-02)Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.Publication Taking Stock, December 2010(World Bank, Hanoi, 2010-12)In the post-global economic crisis environment, Vietnam's economy continues to grow at a reasonably rapid and stable rate. While the speed of global economic recovery has been uneven across the world, Asia as a region has done particularly well. And within Asia, Vietnam's growth performance continues to be impressive. As shown in left panel of, Vietnam was one of the fastest growing economies in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region prior to the global economic crisis and has remained so in the post-crisis period as well1. After registering a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.3 percent in 2009, Vietnam's economy is expected to grow between 6.5-6.7 percent in 2010. Vietnam, like China, stands out not only for achieving a higher average growth rate but also a more stable growth path. This however has meant that the speed with which the Vietnam's economy is bouncing back from the lows of 2009 appears to be less impressive than countries that experienced negative growth last year. This edition of 'Taking Stock' a semi-annual publication from the World Bank attempts to understand the recent macroeconomic changes in Vietnam. It documents changes to the macroeconomic outcomes and policies with a view to inform policy discussions in the country. The analysis is mostly retrospective in nature, though discussions on prospective challenges and outlook are also briefly mentioned. Developments in the global economy in general and in the EAP region in particular are juxtaposed against Vietnam's own economic outcomes and policies to provide a more complete and nuanced picture of the issues.Publication Kenya Economic Update, December 2013, No. 9 : Reinvigorating Growth with a Dynamic Banking Sector(Washington, DC, 2013-12)Kenyans are living two decades longer; the fertility and infant mortality rates have been cut in half; and school enrollment, at both the primary and secondary level, has more than doubled. On the economic front, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased eightfold; the largest share of GDP is the services sector, not agriculture; and the financial sector is now the third largest in Sub-Saharan Africa (after South Africa and Nigeria). Kenya strengthened its external position substantially in recent years, accumulating international reserves to meet program targets under the successfully completed international monetary fund (IMF) program. Reforms have improved the resilience of the banking sector to domestic and international shocks. With the advent of mobile information and communications technology (ICT) developments, the ceiling for innovation targeting specific segments of the market and outreach has been raised almost indefinitely. Kenyan banks are ahead of their counterparts in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of the share of lending to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in their portfolios. A mature banking sector and more generally, a well-developed financial sector that supports a vibrant private sector will be an important advantage to achieving the vision 2030 goals.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Should Policy-Based Lending Still Involve Conditionality?(World Bank, 2003)Traditional conditionality in policy-based lending is often criticized as being ineffective, intrusive, and corrosive. Disillusionment has led to replace ex ante conditionality with ex post conditionality and to focus on ownership, selectivity, and partnership. This article reviews experiences with conditionality in the World Bank policy-based lending and explores the benefits and drawbacks of various approaches. It argues that conditionality should play a central role in policy-based lending-but cannot substitute for country ownership and good policies. Moreover an exclusive focus on conditionality based on ex ante commitments or ex post results may not be practical or useful for the Bank policy-based lending. Thus a key recommendation in to use conditionality selectively, tailred to country circumstances. Indeed, an eclectic mix of traditional and new approaches is already being used with programmatic policy-based lending offering a particularly promising way to reconcile the debate between the traditional ex ante approach and the aspirations of a results-based approach to conditionality.Publication Artisanal Scale Gold Mining(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022)This framework document provides a pragmatic approach for designing representative studies and developing uniform sampling guidelines to support estimates of morbidity that are explicitly linked to exposure to land-based contaminants from artisanal small-scale gold mining (ASGM) activities. A primary goal is to support environmental burden-of-disease evaluations, which attempt to attribute health outcomes to specific sources of pollution. The guidelines provide recommendations on the most appropriate and cost-effective sampling and analysis methods to ensure the collection of representative population-level data, sample size recommendations for each contaminant and environmental media, biological-sampling data, household-survey data, and health-outcome data. This framework focuses on ASGM activities that are known to use and generate mercury (Hg) as well as other metals, such as arsenic (As) and lead (Pb), depending on the specific ores being mined. A particular concern with Hg is the conversion to methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic environments, leading to bioaccumulation and biomagnification in fish that may be locally consumed. Exposures to Hg, MeHg, and Pb are strongly associated with neurodevelopmental health outcomes in children. Exposures to Hg and MeHg are also associated with neurological illnesses in adults. Exposures to Pb are associated with renal outcomes in children and adults, and cardiovascular outcomes in adults. Exposures to As are associated with neurodevelopmental health outcomes in children, arsenicosis and skin disorders in children and adults, and potential cancers in adults, including skin, bladder, and lung. The primary objective of this framework is to guide research to assess the relationship between environmental contamination, exposures, and health outcomes related to a subset of contaminants originating from ASGM activities for particularly vulnerable populations (such as children) and the general population within a single household in the vicinity of ASGM sites in low- and medium-income countries. To achieve this objective, biomonitoring and health-outcome data are linked to household-survey and environmental data (for example, soil, dust, water, agricultural products, and fish) at the individual level from an exposed population compared to individuals from an unexposed (reference) population. Data on exposures and health outcomes in the same individual across a representative set of individuals is required to support an understanding of the potential impact of ASGM activities on local populations. These guidelines can also assist in building local capacity to conduct environmental assessments following a consistent methodology to facilitate comparability across ASGM sites in different geographic areas. Sampling strategies and methods are prioritized given information needs, resource availability, and other constraints or considerations. The framework includes a number of supporting appendixes that provide additional resources and references on relevant topics.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Benin Economic Update, Fall 2014(2014-10)Benin has made substantial progress over the past decade in reinforcing macroeconomic stability, which has laid the foundation for modest but accelerating growth. After averaging less than 3.7 percent from 2007-2011, GDP growth rose to 5.4 percent in 2012 and reached 5.6 percent in 2013. Growth is expected to remain strong at 5.5 percent in 2014. Benin s enhanced growth performance has been supported by ongoing efficiency improvements at the Port of Cotonou, a vital regional trade hub, which have boosted traffic and cut marginal shipping costs. These developments have been complemented by stronger cotton and non-cotton agricultural production, which have been bolstered by favorable weather conditions and relatively effective management of recent cotton campaigns. The weak connectivity between macroeconomic growth and poverty reduction arises largely from the very modest growth of per capita income. In addition, the highly informal nature of the economy, low and declining productivity, particularly in agriculture, and a lack of economic diversification all contribute to the persistence of poverty in Benin. Agricultural growth has been driven by the expansion of cultivated land rather than by increased productivity. Similarly, the increasing size of the national labor force has made a far larger contribution to GDP than have increases in labor productivity. Growth in the formal, salaried labor market remains constrained, and few high productivity/high wage jobs are being created. Strengthening the links between growth and poverty reduction will require boosting productivity, enhancing the business and investment climate, and promoting formalization. In this context, the Benin Economic Update is designed to provide timely analysis of recent developments and contribute to the ongoing dialogue on sound macroeconomic management and effective poverty reduction.Publication Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Liberia for the Period FY19 - FY24(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-26)The Liberian economy is undergoing a process of structural transformation, as the dominanceof agriculture and mining gradually gives way to a rising services sector. Much of the Liberian economy is structured around foreign direct investment (FDI) and the development of private agricultural, mining, and forestry concessions. The Liberian economy showed signs of recovery in 2017-2018, amid significant fiscal and external imbalances. The medium-term outlook remains positive, assuming the new government maintains prudent macroeconomic policies, pursues a judicious borrowing policy, and implements planned structural reforms. The favorable medium-term growth outlook also assumes that sound macroeconomic management and structural reforms will strengthen investor confidence. The Government’s medium-term development strategy (July 2018-June 2023), the Pro-poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD), is designed around the priorities set forth in President Weah’s inaugural speech and State of the Nation address: (i) combatting corruption; (ii) improving efficiency and accountability in the public sector; (iii) promoting honesty and transparency in the private sector; (iv) narrowing infrastructure gaps, especially in the southeast; and (v) creating jobs, especially for young workers. The Country Partnership Framework emphasizes the importance of shifting the focus of the WBG program from being infrastructure intensive under the previous CPS toward a more balanced approach with greater attention to education, agriculture, economic empowerment of women and youth, and maternal and child health. WBG will support smallholder commercialization and private-sector investment in agribusiness by fostering productive business linkages among smallholder farmers, selected agribusiness firms, and business-development services—with a special focus on constraints faced by women and youth.