Publication: Are We Overestimating Demand for Microloans?
Loading...
Date
2008-04
ISSN
Published
2008-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This brief addresses demand for micro credit only, not demand for microfinance or other microfinance services, such as savings or funds transfers, which may be greater than the demand for micro credit. For instance, the ratio of savers to borrowers is about 10-to-1 for Bank Rakyat Indonesia, 9-to-1 for Centenary Bank in Uganda, and 4-to-1 for PRODEM in Bolivia (MIX Market). Micro credit demand estimates address the amount of funding required: the expected number of active borrowers is multiplied by an assumed average outstanding loan amount. Reasonable estimates of average loan size can be derived from international databases maintained by the mix market and micro credit summit. But estimating numbers of expected borrowers can be a minefield. This brief discusses the kinds of reductions that should be factored into a demand estimate and looks at some all too-sketchy empirical evidence about the size of those reductions. Most-but not all-of this evidence raises a concern that demand may often be overestimated by a considerable margin.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Anand, Malika; Rosenberg, Richard. 2008. Are We Overestimating Demand for Microloans?. CGAP Brief. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9521 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Microcredit Interest Rates and Their Determinants, 2004-2011(CGAP, Washington, DC, 2013-06)From the beginning of modern microcredit, its most controversial dimension has been the interest rates charged by micro lenders, often referred to as microfinance institutions (MFIs). These rates are higher, often much higher, than normal bank rates, mainly because it inevitably costs more to lend and collect a given amount through thousands of tiny loans than to lend and collect the same amount in a few large loans. Higher administrative costs have to be covered by higher interest rates. Many people worry that poor borrowers are being exploited by excessive interest rates, given that those borrowers have little bargaining power, and that an ever-larger proportion of microcredit is moving into for-profit organizations where higher interest rates could, as the story goes, mean higher returns for the shareholders. Section one looks at the level and trend of micro lenders' interest rates worldwide, and breaks them out among different types of institutions (peer groups). Section two examines the cost of funds that micro lenders borrow to fund their loan portfolio. Section three reports on loan losses, including, worrisome recent developments in two large markets. Section four presents trends in operating expenses, and touches on the closely related issue of loan size. Section five looks at micro lenders' profits, the most controversial component of microcredit interest rates. A reader without time to read the whole paper may wish to skip to section six, which provides a graphic overview of the movement of interest rates and their components over the period and a summary of the main findings. The annex describes our database and methodology, including the reasons for dropping four large microlenders6 from the analysis.Publication Microfinance Consensus Guidelines : Guiding Principles on Regulation and Supervision of Microfinance(CGAP and World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-07)Many developing countries and countries with transitional economies are considering whether and how to regulate microfinance. These guiding principles are formulated for the regulation and supervision of microfinance. This document is divided into five sections. The first section of the paper discusses terminology and preliminary issues. The second section outlines areas of regulatory concern that do not call for "prudential" regulation. The next section discusses prudential treatment of microfinance and Microfinance Institutions (MFIs). The fourth section briefly looks at the challenges surrounding supervision, and the final section summarizes some key policy recommendations.Publication Timor Leste : Access to Finance for Investment and Working Capital(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)This study argues the need for a policy environment supporting both urban informal sector dynamism and rapid transition from subsistence to monetization in agriculture. Such policies must include measures facilitating access to financial services for households, which are the backbone of the informal and subsistence economies. The economy of Timor-Leste is divided between a farm sector in which as many of 80 percent of workers remain, with most of these still dependent on subsistence production, and a non-farm sector in which micro- and small enterprises are an overwhelming majority. Most urban enterprises operate in an informal environment, while in both the farm and non-farm sectors the household is the basic unit of economic activity.Publication What Does Debt Relief Do for Development? Evidence from India’s Bailout Program for Highly-Indebted Rural Households(2012-11)This paper studies the impact of a large debt relief program, intended to attenuate investment constraints among highly-indebted households in rural India. It isolates the causal effect of bankruptcy-like debt relief settlements using a natural experiment arising from India's Debt Relief Program for Small and Marginal Farmers -- one of the largest debt relief initiatives in history. The analysis shows that debt relief has a persistent effect on the level of household debt, but does not increase investment and productivity as predicted by theories of debt overhang. Instead, the anticipation of future credit constraints leads to a greater reliance on informal financing, lower investment and a decline in productivity among bailout recipients. The results suggest that one-time settlements may be insufficient to incentivize new investment, but can have significant real effects through their impact on borrower expectations.Publication World Bank Lending for Financial Inclusion(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015)The purpose of the paper is to present a more granular view of such projects through the in-depth focus on a limited number of case studies, with a view to understanding what factors in the design of such lending have helped achieve objectives of expanded access, and what forms of interventions may have been less successful. It examines the nature of Bank lending vehicles, the partnering borrower institutions, the country environments in which its loans were extended, as well as broader elements of good practice that make for loan success. It examines the beneficiaries targeted and results achieved. It aims to draws lessons that suggest what factors could lead to success or failure in Bank operations focused on financial access. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: section two briefly describes the set of the Bank s projects selected for detailed review. Sections three to six contain the core findings of the review. Section 3 focuses on alternative forms of borrower institutions that have served as vehicles for Bank projects, particularly, public sector banks, apex bank structures that include the private sector, rural banks, nonbanks, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and microfinance institutions, in terms of the degree to which the Bank has been able to successfully partner with such institutions to expand financial access. It also looks at alternative forms of Bank loan design, policy-based loans, investment loans and lines of credit, Learning and Innovation Loans (LILs), matching grants, technical assistance and combinations thereof, and reviews evidence on the role of loan structure (including partnerships with other donors/lenders) and project success. Section four considers the effect of the broader business environment, in terms of financial regulation. Section five reviews elements of good practice that have contributed to success in lending that could be applicable to loans with any objective, and examines their application in the present context. Section six tries to construct a bottom line, reviewing available evidence on outcomes and impact; especially in terms of the ultimate beneficiaries reached. Section seven, the final section, summarizes the main messages emerging from the review and concludes with observations about ways forward.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.